


7 




LIBRARY OF CONGRESS. 

Chap. Copyright No. 

Shell__._.____.. 



UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. 



BENNER'S PROPHECIES 



FUTURE UPS AND DOWNS IN PRICES 



WHAT YEARS TO MAKE MONEY ON PIG-IRON, HOGS, CORN, 
AND PROVISIONS. 



By SAMUEL BENNER, 

All Ohio Farmer. 



' I know of no way of judging of the future but by^th^ 

/^A^'icK 

\t. UAN 6 

ELEVENTH EDITia?c'''o^ ^»,,S^>r ^ 




WITH FORECAST FOR 1897. ^ [)^ v ^ 



(Pages 217-224.) 
CINCINNATI : 

THE EGBERT CLARKE COMPANY, 

1897. 






Entered according to Act of Congress, in the j'ear 1875, 

By SAMUEL BENNER, 

In the Ofllce of the Librarian of Congress, at Washington, D. C. 

Copyright, 
BY THE ROBERT CLARKE COMPANY, 

1897. 



DEDICATED 



TO THB 

*RICULTURAL, MANUFACTURING, MINJMG, MRRCANTU.8 
INDUSTRIAL, FINANCIAL. AND COMMERCLAL INIEK 
KSl-S OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA- 



There Is a time in tne pnce ot (xrx&m 
products and commodities, 

Which, if taken by men at the adv&nss. 
leads on to fortune ; 

&.ud if taken at the decline, leads t£> 
bankruptcy and rain. 



INDEX 



PAGE 

Preface, . . . . . » . 7 

Introduction, ....... 10 

Predictions, ....... 13 

Pig-iron, . . . . . . . .30 

Hogs, . . . . . . • . 56 

Corn, .- . . . , . . . .76 

Cotton 90 

Provisions, . . . . . . = .93 

Panic, . . . . • . " ' • 96 

Theory, ........ 118 

Conclusions, ....... 125 

ADDENDA, 1884. 

Revision of this Work, . . . , , .132 

Prophecies Verified, ...... 135 

Signs of the Times, . . . . . .139 

Average Yearly Prices for Pig-iron, . , . 144 

Failures, ........ 144 

Railroad Stocks, ...... 148 

Miles of Railroad in U. S. 153 

Winter Packing of Hogs— Net and Gross Cost, . . 155 

Corn, ... 157 

The Weather, ....... 158 

Stagesof the Ohio River at Cincinnati, Ohio, . . 162 

Corn and Hogs, ...... 163 

Cotton and Crops, ....... 166 

Wheat, .168 



VI INDEX. 

PAGE 

Forecast for 1887, 171 

Forecast for 1888, ......... 176 

Forecast for 1889-'91, 183 

Forecast for 1891, , . . . 193 

Forecast for 1892, 197 

Forecast for 1894, 205 

Forrecast for 1S97, 217 



PEEFAOE. 



EN the following pages the object of the 
writer is to give brief, full, and clear ex- 
position of the ups and downs in prices for 
certain products and commodities in the mar- 
kets of our country, to all who are struggling 
in the same for a competence. 

To foresee the future intelligent!}^ in regard 
to supply and demand, production and con- 
sumption, is the great want that finance and 
commerce are to-day struggling and grappling 
with and striving to solve. 

The question of prices will always be of great 
interest to the producer and consumer. The 
spirit of the age is tending toward speculation 
in the products of the " Farm, the Mine, and 
the Factory." All business operations for 
profit and future contracts are attended with 
a great deal of risk, and the leading branches 
of trade demand information on the subject, 
and that the uncertainties of the future be 
lessened. 

There is always a hesitancy and a desire for 
further intelligence, in regard to engaging in 

(vii) 



Vlll PREFACE. 

any business where the chances for profit de- 
pend upon so many contingencies and circum- 
stances. 

The author, in presenting a practical book 
to the public on the subject, and on the 
branches of trade of which it treats, is in- 
spired with the belief that it will be the 
greatest boon to the reader to have the years 
of high and low prices pointed out in the 
future. 

It should be the highest aim of the farmer, 
manufacturer, and trader, in a business point 
of view, to penetrate the future and calculate 
what years he can realize the best prices for 
his products. 

Content to be useful, instead of being volu- 
minous, the writer has confined the book to a 
few of the most important branches of trade. 
To have extended the work to the dimensions 
of embracing other branches would have made 
it more copious than the designed brevity of 
the book would admit. 

It is hoped that to this volume will be 
accorded the merit of directing more atten- 
tion to the ups and downs in prices, and the 
causes producing and influencing the same. 

And now, submitting the results of oui 
labor, experience, and observation to the in 



PREFACE. IX 

dustry and commerce of the country, the 
author's wishes will be fully realized if this 
little volume contains any information which 
may be useful or of service to those interested 



INTRODUCTION. 



^ttShe advance and decline in the average 
^l price of pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provi- 
sions in the markets of our country, for a 
series of twenty years past, and for certain 
periods, have been as alternately certain as 
the diurnal revolutions of the earth upon its 
axis; and the periods of high and low prices 
have been as regular in rotation, as the an- 
nual return of the four seasons. 

Now, Reader : You who may study the ups 
and downs in prices as collated and consid- 
ered in these pages, and operate in accordance 
with the advance of prices and tendencies of 
the times, as here indicated, will surely be 
successful ; whilst those who stubbornly and 
blindly prosecute on the decline, will do an 
unprofitable business, and will meet with con- 
tinued disaster and loss. 

I am well aware that my prediction of the 

downward tendency in the prices of pig-iron, 

hogs, corn, and provisions, and dull trade for 

the next two years, will be to some as unwel- 

(x) 



INTRODUCTION. 11 

come as the tolling of the-fire bell at the hour 
of midnight ; and to others as unexpected as 
was the approach of the Medes and Persians, 
under the walls of Babylon, to the banquetore 
at the royal board of Belshazzar ; but we can 
not be blamed for foretelling that which can 
not be averted and which past prices, and 
signs of the times indicate, and which a con- 
scientious conviction of duty compels us to 
predict, with the hope that our premoni- 
tion may serve to diminish disaster and save 
national and individual interests from ruin. 

I now at once make my predictions, and will 
endeavor to demonstrate their certainty and 
fulfillment to the comprehension of all, by an 
examination of past prices, and their bearing 
upon the future, as analyzed by the light of 
practical experience and sound analogy. 



PREDIOTIOJSrS. 



PIG-IRON. 



E PREDICT that the average price of No. 1 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets 
of our country will be lower in the year 1876 
than in 1875. 

I predict that the average price of No. 1 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets of 
our country will be lower in the year 1877 
than in 1876, and that the daily price in some 
months of that year will run below twenty 
dollars per ton. 

I predict that the average price of No. 1 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets of 
our country will be higher in the year 1878 
than in 1877. 

I predict that the average price of No. 1 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets of 
our country will be higher in the year 1879 
than in 1878, notwithstanding the resump- 
tion of specie payments. 



14 banner's PllOt»HEClES. 

I predict that the average price of No. J 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets of 
our country will be higher in the year 1 880 
than in 1879. 

I predict that the average price of No. 1 
foundry charcoal pig-iron in the markets of 
our country will be higher in the year 1881 
than in 1880, and that the daily price in some 
months of that year will run above fifty dol- 
lars per ton. 

The average prices as determined for the 
" American Iron and Steel Association." 

HOGS. 

I predict that the average price of fat hogs 
in the markets of our country will be lower 
in the year 1876 than in 1875. 

I predict that the average price of fat hogs 
in the markets of our country will be lower 
in the year 1877 than in 1876. 

I predict that the average price of fat hogs 
in the markets of our country will be higher 
in the year 1878 than in 1877. 

I predict that the average price of fat hogs 
in the markets of our country will be higher 
in the year 1879 than in 1878, notwithstand 
ing the resumption of specie payments. 

I predict that the average price of fat hoge 



PANIC. 15 

in the markets of our country will be higher 
in the year 1880 than in 1879. 

The average prices as determined by the 
** Cincinnati Price Current." 

PANIC. 

I predict that there will be great depression 
in general business, and many failures in the 
years 1876 and 1877, and that there will be a 
commercial revulsion, and a financial crisis 
in the year 1891. 

Here are twelve prophecies of certain 
events to take place in the future, and they 
are of no uncertain sound; either one of 
them, if taken advantage of, by large opera- 
tors and speculators, w^ould make and save 
them millions of money, and would be of in- 
calculable benefit to every person in this 
country. To know when to shape our agricul- 
tural, manufacturing, and financial opera- 
tions, so as to secure the best markets instead 
of the vvorst, is the end much to be desired bv 
all. 

These prophecies are made not upon sup- 
posed fanciful speculation, but from the testi- 
mony of twenty years' observation by the 
writer, from living and experienced facts; 
from the yearly average prices compiled by 



16 benner's prophecies. 

recognized official authority, and by anal 
ogy, relying upon "history to repeat it- 
self." 

The writer does not claim a "gift of 
prophecy," but he does claim a Cast Iron Rule 
that will do to keep in sight, and that future 
ups and downs of the markets, and high and 
low prices in certain products and commodi- 
ties, can be calculated for some years to come 
with as much certainty, and upon the same 
principle that an astronomer calculates an 
eclipse of the sun. 

It is not upon record that Joseph had 
Egyptian weather statistics, or tables of pro- 
duction and prices, to base his prediction 
and interpretation of Pharaoh's dream; but 
he relied upon divine power to fulfill his 
prophecy. On our part, we base our predic- 
tions upon the records of the past, and their 
relation to the future, as governed by the un- 
changeable laws of nature, and only rely upon 
providence for their fulfillment to give us the 
continued regular progress and development 
of these laws, and to its usual dispensation for 
seasons to make large or small crops, and not 
on the peoples' efforts merely. 

The author firmly believes that God is ir 
prices, and that the over and under produo* 



UPS AND DOWNS. 17 

tion of every commodity is in accordance 
with his will, with strict reference to the 
wants of mankind, and governed by the laws 
of nature, which are God's laws; and that the 
production, advance, and decline of average 
prices should be systematic, and occur in an 
established providential succession, as certain 
and regular as the magnetic needle points un- 
erringly to the pole. 

Are not all kinds of business at loose ends — 
astray, tossed on the tempestuous sea of un- 
certainty — from our imperfect knowledge of 
natural causes and the laws by which they 
operate ; and our lack of accurate statistics 
of production and prices, a knowledge of 
which would enable us to discover and estab- 
lish reliable rules for our guidance in the fu- 
ture? Is there anything certain and settled 
in farming, except that a broom-handle is a 
sure cure for hoven in cattle ! Are not farm- 
ers, furnace-men, manufacturers, traders and 
speculators at random, like a ship without 
compass or rudder ? Do not all operations in 
business depend for success upon a certai 
number of fixed, reliable rules? The rules 
we have to commence and transact business 
upon are stereotyped rules, that " Honesty is 
ihe best policy;" that industry, energy, per- 



18 benner's peophecies. 

severance, prudence, economy, and so on, lead 
to riches and competence. These are all good 
enough in their line, and indispensable to 
success, but are they all-sufficient ? Is this 
knowledge all that is absolutely required for 
successful business in every department of 
trade? Is there not a knowledge of some- 
thing more which a business man wants? 
And who is not a business man ? In order to 
guide him in reference to future prices that 
are to rule in the markets of our country, 
we can not close our eyes and ignore the fact 
that there is a want of rules by which to in- 
terpret the '' signs of the times," and to ena- 
ble us to comprehend the future status of the 
markets, so we may know six months or a 
year ahead what are to be the conditions and 
circumstances that will produce the coming 
ups and downs in prices for any product or 
commodit}^, and when the changes from high 
and low prices are to take place. 

How are we to xget this information, this 
insight into, or foresight of the future ? 



Do the Records of the Weather Give the Rule ^ 

In seeking to forecast future prices of agri 
cultural products, the weather is an impor 



UPS AND DOWNS. 19 

tant element of uncertainty. With the rap- 
idly increasing means of observation, and the 
deep interest taken by governments and 
scientists every-where in the laws of climate, 
the development and path of storms, nature 
of calms^ theory of winds, movements of 
masses of hot and dry air, and the phenom- 
ena of rain and snow, we may in time learn 
to calculate with certainty what years will 
be dry or wet ; when we may expect years of 
heat, storm, and cold; but with all th^ 
weather statistics of the past, tables of meteor- 
ology, and not excepting the weather wisdom 
of almanac makers, it will not come within 
the province of this work to lay down rules 
by which to forecast the future of the 
weather. It will require time, research, with 
improved means, and a more complete series 
of meteorological and climatological observa- 
tions to form a system of probabilities that 
can be useful ; and when the weather proba- 
bilities are reduced to a science, it will then 
be a long step to determine agricultural pro- 
ductions and prices from them; and if the 
time should come when the weather bureau 
at Washington can predict twelve months 
ahead instead of twenty-four hours, we can 
then know in advance what the seasons are 



20 benner's prophecies. 

to be, the number of bushels or pounds of any 
thing to be produced, what prices will rule; 
and we can all make money. 

It will not be one of the points of this 
book to determine the causes of things, or the 
conditions and elements which will produce 
the coining ups and downs in prices; with 
these questions these prophecies have nothing 
to do; it will only come within its sphere to 
ascertain and point out the periodical return 
of effects, in the changes from high and low 
prices. 

We know the effects as manifested in the 
ups and downs of average prices, and good 
and bad trade, and it seems as though there 
ought to be an established cause to produce 
results of so much certainty, periodicity, and 
alternate regularity. 

The difficulty encountered in determining 
the causes producing the changes in produc- 
tion and prices is, that we are compelled to 
reason a posteriori^ from effect to cause, and 
" what can we reason but from what we 
know." All original causes are invisible, and 
that which is rendered visible through devel- 
opment is an effect; the cause must exist an 
tecedent to the effect. The manner in which 
causes and their laws operate to produce the?.< 



UPS AND DOWNS. 21 

effocts may be found in our solar system, upon 
which we hereafter give some theories. All 
nature is found to be the servant of law : 
.spring, summer, autumn, and winter succeed 
each other in unchangeable^ regularity, and 
the recurrences of the various convulsions of 
nature are being determined on scientific 
principles; none of these things happen by 
chance, but all of them by some law which 
will shortly be solved ; and when the causes 
producing the changes in the weather, and 
the operations of their laws are better under- 
stood, we may be then better able to discover 
their influence on the state of business in 
manufacture, trade, and commerce ; then we 
may be enabled to fathom the conditions and 
elements that will produce the coming ups 
and downs in prices which are to rule in the 
markets of our country. 

Do the Statistics of Production Give the Rule? 

To ascertain when the changes from high 
and low prices are to take place: 

Who is it that can tell us what is to be tlie 
production of corn, cotton, wheat, tobacco, or 
an}" product that growls from the ground, and 
is dependent upon the season foi the life oi 



22 benner's prophecies. 

death of the plant ? No one ; after they have 
gathered and collected all the information ob- 
tainable in regard to the acreage to be planted 
or sown, the seasons make large or small 
crops, and not the farmers. 

A cold, wet spring through the months of 
April, May, and June, is almost fatal to the 
corn, cotton, tobacco, and other plants. Also 
a dry, hot summer, has the effect to destroy 
the growing stocks. Floods and early frosts are 
great destroyers of the cereals in our northern 
latitudes; either one of these elements oper- 
ating diminishes the number of pounds oi 
bushels, and produces short crops ; therefore, 
we can not beforehand determine what will 
be the production of any year by that which 
has been planted or sown. 

Statistics of agricultural products or manu- 
factured commodities are generally too late to 
be available for present use; they come after 
a person has made their investment or dis- 
posed of their property. Agricultural statis- 
tics, as generally compiled at Washington, 
tell the farmer the aggregate amount or num- 
'ber of bushels produced six months or a year 
after their crops have been harvested and 
gold. 

Statistics of production, either estimated or 



UPS AND DOWNS. 23 

sold for consumption, are not suiOficient to 
operate upon; one is too soon, the other too 
hite. 

Commercial estimates are too high. 

The future can not be calculated upon in- 
telligently by agricultural statistics. The 
reason why they are not reliable is, that they 
are not given in by farmers correct : one far- 
mer will think it has something to do with 
taxes, and he will give them in low; another, 
to magnify the yield of his farm, and other 
purposes, will give them in high ; therefore, 
they can not be a criterion for future calcula- 
tion and prices. 

Again, statistics of what has been produced 
may vary considerably from the available 
supply. We can not make any correct esti- 
mate or compile any statistics of what has 
been done with a crop. The corn crop of one 
year may not feed more than two-thirds of 
the stock that the crop Avould of another 
year. 

Statistics of foreign exports are not to be 
depended upon. The estimated aggregate 
amount of the yearly production of any crop 
or manufactured commodity, does not from 
year to year approximate any regularity of 
increase or decrease that indicates future pro- 



24 benner's prophecies. 

d action ; and therefore the course of future 
prices can not be determined by them. 

Statistics are generally huge columns of 
figures, of which no one knows all the chan- 
nels from whence they came, all the clerical 
errors in their compilation, and parties inter- 
ested in their manipulation. 
. In attempting to explore and explain the 
elements in these statistical tables and prob- 
lems of which people think are few and eas- 
ily read, the real supply and demand will be 
as unfathomable as the waters of the briny 
deep. 

Does the Price Give the Rule? 

The price of any product is the exponent 
of the accumulated wisdom of the country in 
regard to the available supply and prospec- 
tive demand for that product; and as the 
price advances or declines, so it indicates the 
surplus or deficit of any product or commod- 
ity. 

The daily price is always known in the 
markets. There may be incidental causes, 
which are always producing slight and tem- 
porary fluctuations in value. The variation 
in price in one locality from another may be 
found in the cost of transportation or other 



UPS AND DOWNS 25 

local causes. The price is ahvays known; 
fche amount of any product and the demand 
for the same, is not so easily obtained. The 
books are always posted in regard to price, 
but several pages behind on amount of prod- 
uct available and the demand for the same. 
The price is the index of the probable amount 
of any product or commodity that is demanded 
for general consumption. 

The price which an article will command 
to-morrow or next week can not always be 
known, as there are so many contingencies to 
cause temporary fluctuations in the markets. 
One or more of the various products may be 
manipulated so as to influence the price to 
advance or decline for a short time, but specu- 
lators can not influence any market only tem- 
porarily. 

It is not within the wisdom of finite beings 
to comprehend all the temporary circumstan- 
ces connected with prices, as governed and 
influenced by supply and demand, weather 
and seasons, combinations and corners, longs 
and shorts, puts and calls, and bulls and bears 
to operate upon the market. 

Now as the temporary price is uncertain, 
let us look further into the subject of prices 
to find a rule, and take the average to ascer- 



26 benner's prophecies. 

tain if there is any regularity existing in the 
run of the markets. As prices of agricultural 
products are governed by production, and pro- 
duction is governed by the seasons, and as it 
takes the four seasons to determime the abund- 
ance or scarcity of a crop ; therefore we are 
compelled to take the j^early average price to 
get above and beyond the control and influ- 
ence of speculators, manipulators, and corners 
upon the market. 

The yearly average price is ascertained by 
taking the price each day, week, or month, at 
one or more of the markets where the artfcles 
are bought and sold, and by adding the whole 
together, and then dividing by the number 
of times taken, the quotient will give the 
average for a year. 

When the yearly average price is very low 
for any product or commodity, and next yea:! 
advances, and so on until it reaches the high 
est average, is that which is here denomi- 
nated an "wp.^" When the average price de- 
clines from one year to another to the lowest 
average, is that which is here denominated a 
''down?'' 

The "ups and downs" of yearly average 
prices, in a series of years for some articles, 
are very noticeable ; and it can be observed 



UPS AND DOWNS. 27 

that it takes a required number of years to 
complete an " up and down." 

Now to find a rule that can give us an}^ fore- 
sight of future markets, we must look to the 
past ups and downs of average prices; then 
ascertain how many years it takes to complete 
an up and down in any product or commodity, 
then determine in what order the ups and 
downs are repeated in the next cycle; and if 
there is found any noticeable periodicity in 
cycles, then we have a rule which can be 
applied to the future. An up and down or a 
down and up in average prices, is in this 
book denominated a cycle. 

The cycles in yearly average prices 

Gives Us The Rule. 

The indubitable evidences and testimonies 
of observation have established this rule as 
the safest we have ever practiced and have 
ever found adapted to this purpose. And in- 
side of this rule, like a wheel within a wheel, 
is to be found our "Cast Iron Rule," which is 
that one extreme invariably follows another, as can 
be witnessed in all the operations of nature, 
in all the business affairs of man, and in all 
the ramifications of trade and industry; and 



28 benner's prophecies. 

in every cycle of average prices it is shown to 
what extent these extremes run. This rule 
when applied to pig-iron, hogs, corn and provi- 
sions, is as persistent as the attractive and re- 
pulsive forces of the magnet, and as unchange- 
ahle as the laws of the Medes and Persians. 

This knowledge of the years in which high 
and low prices return in the markets, belong 
to the farmer, manufacturer, and legitimate 
trader, as well as the speculator; and it is as 
important that this intelligence should be 
known to one as to the other. 

The ups and downs in prices, as considered 
in this book, have reference to a series of years 
as distinguished from the daily and weekly 
fluctuations. War, panic, and elections have 
not changed the general yearly course of prices 
in some articles for many years past ; and we 
only go back so far as we have been enabled 
to obtain reliable yearly average prices, or the 
official records of monthly prices at New York, 
and from them we can date their unfolding, 
and since that time establish by our rule the 
full development of our system of prophecy. 

It is not necessary for us to look beyond the 
present century, or to the histor}^ of prices in 
older countries, for epochs of abundance and 
scarcity, to prove recurring cycles in prices 



UPS AND DOWNS. 29 

The alternation of good and bad harvests is 
well known in English histor3\ "Tooke" 
published a history of prices in 1838, giving 
an exhaustive analysis of the causes producing 
abundance and scarcity in crops in the eight- 
eenth century, but did not establish any rule 
by which the future course of prices could be 
arithmetically calculated. 

It is to the present nineteenth century, and 
in tlie land of free America, the most favored 
nation upon the earth, that divine providence 
has arranged this matter, for not only the 
spread of the true principles of religion and 
liberty, but the full development of the 
operations of the unchangeable laws of nature 
around and about us. 

The battles of Lexington, Concord and Bun- 
ker Hill, the centennial of which we celebrated 
in 1875, was the commencement of our strug- 
gles for freedom from the tyrannical yoke of 
England. The War of 1812 was the final con- 
summation of our independence in the arts 
and sciences, commerce and politics; and the 
I)eriod in our history after which we can date 
the development of the reaper and mower, 
sewing-machine, grain elevator, power loom, 
cotton gin, stereotype, steam printing press, 
railroad, steamboat, electric telegraph, the 



iO benner's prophecies. 

compilation of average prices, new elements 
and sciences, and a multitude of inventions 
and discoveries for the advancement of man 
in his onward path of progress, and in the^ 
knowledge of the waj^s of an inscrutable provi- 
dence. 

Now instead of pondering over farmers' de- 
liveries, weekly receipts, visible supplies, and 
entering into an expensive collection and 
elaborate examination of statistics of what 
the probable production of pig-iron, corn, and 
hogs will be, and the commercial demand for 
the same, and what old elements will be want- 
ing and new ones to be developed, and watch- 
ing and waiting to hear from New York, let 
us call history to the witness stand, and see 
what it has to testify on the subject ; and also 
bring into court the testimony of observation 
and experience, by taking the course of the 
averages in past markets, as compiled by reli- 
able and oflEicial authority ; and also the years 
in which money has been made and lost in 
the different branches of trade, and then by 
our rule make the application for the future 

PIG-IRON. 

The following statement, prepared by Hon 
Henry C Carey, in 1849, embraces all that ia 



PIG-IRON. 31 

defiiiitel}^ known of the progress of the iron 
industry in this country prior to 1854. 

Mr. Carey^s Pig-iron Statistics. 

In 1810 the Avhole number of furnaces in 
the Union was 153, yielding 54,000 tons of 
metal, equal to 16 pounds per head of the pop- 
ulation. 

In 1821 the manufacture was in a state of 
ruin. 

In 1828 the product had reached 130,000 
tons, having little more than doubled in 
eighteen years. 

In 1829 it was 142,000. Increase in one 
year nearly ten per cent. 

In 1830 it was 165,000. Increase in two 
years more than 25 per cent. 

In 1831 it was 191,000. Increase in three 
years about 50 per cent. 

In 1832 it was 200,000, giving an increase 
in three years of above 60 per cent. 

In 1840 the quantity given by the census 
was 286,000, but a committee of the Home 
League, in New York, made it 347,700 tona. 
Taking the medium of the two, it would give 
about 315,000 tons, being an increase in eight 
years of 50 per cent. 



32 benner's prophecies. 

In 18-42 a large portion of the furnaces were 
closed, and the product had fallen to probably 
little more than 200,000, but certainly less 
than 230,000 tons. 

In 1846 it was estimated by the Secretary 
of the Treasury at 765,000 tons, having 
trebled in four years. 

In 1847 it was supposed to have reached the 
amount of not less than 800,000 tons. 

In 1848 it became stationary. 

In 1849 many furnaces being already closed, 
the production of the present year can not be 
estimated above 650,000 tons; but from the 
accumulation of stock, and the difficulty of 
selling it, it is obvious that the diminution 
will be greater. 

The above statement, it will be observed, ia 
only statistical in regard to production, al- 
though it is stated that in 1821 the manufac- 
ture was. in a state of ruin; and in 1842 a 
large portion of the furnaces were closed 
This probably was in consequence of low 
prices that prevailed at this time. 

In the report of the Secretary of the Treas- 
ury for 1863, the only official source for aver- 
age prices since the war of 1812, or the panic 
of 1819, and prior to 1844, tliat I am able to 
obtain, is, however, sufficient for our purpose; 



PIG-IRON. 33 

it is recorded that 1825, '26, and '27 were 
years of very high prices in pig-iron; after 
these years the price declined, the tariff of 
twelve and one-half dollars per ton was re- 
duced in 1833, and in the year 1834 the price 
had declined to a very low figure for that 
time. Business was depressed in all branches 
of trade; the aggregate amount of duties on 
all imports were the lowest that had been col- 
lected for many years before that year ; this 
date is forty-two years ago, and I commence 
my table of the ups and downs in prices of 
pig-iron at this time. 

The finance report of 1863, in giving prices 
for the New York market, states that in 1836 
there was a material rise in prices in all arti- 
cles, especially pig-iron, which is quoted at 
sixty dollars per ton; and in 1837 the price 
advanced to seventy dollars per ton for Scotch 
pig, which was an extremely high price, and 
three years from the low prices of 1834. 

The panic in money caused the suspension 
of specie payments by the banks in May, 
1837, yet the price of pig-iron had commenced 
to decline in March of that year, before the 
panic had cast its blighting shadow over the 
country. 

In the years 1838, '39, '40, '41, and '42 the 
3 



34 benner's prophecies. 

price continued to decline, and 1843 was a re- 
markable year for the extreme depression in 
prices that prevailed for all staple articles. 
Scotch pig was quoted in September of that 
year as low as twenty-two and one-half dollars 
per ton ; this low price was six years after the 
high prices of 1837. 

Tn the year 1844 the price commenced to 
advance, and in 1845, in the month of May, 
the price is quoted at fifty-two and one-half 
dollars per ton. The price had increased thirty 
dollars per ton in twenty months. The max- 
imum price was reached in a few months less 
than two years from the minimum price of 
1843— mark this! 

Yearly average prices in Philadelphia of 
No. 1 Anthracite foundry pig-iron, from 1844 
to 1874, both years inclusive; and production 
of pig-iron from 1854 to 1874 as compiled for 
the American Iron and Steel Association. 



PIG-IRON, 



35 



TABLE OF YEARLY AVERAGE PRICES. 



YEAR. 

1844 
1845 
1846 
1847 
1848 
1849 
1850 
1851 
1852 
1853 
1854 
1855 
1856 
1857 
1858 
1859 
1860 
1861 
1862 
1863 
1864 
1865 
1866 
1867 
1868 
1869 
1870 
1871 
1872 
1873 
1874 



PRICE. 

25f 
29J 
27J 
30J 
26^ 
22f 
20J 



TONS. 



364 

36J 
271 
27i 
261 
22J 
23t 
22f 
20i 
23^ 
35i 
59i 
464 
465 
444 
39J 
401 
33i 
354 

42f 
30i 



736,218. 

784,178. 

883,137. 

798,157. 

705,094. 

840,627. 

919,770. 

731,544. 

787,662. 

947,604. 
1,135,996. 

931,582. 
1,350,343. 
1,461,626. 
1,603,000. 
1,919,641. 
1,865,000. 
1,912,608. 
2,854,558. 
2,868,278. 
2,689,413. 



36 benner's prophecies. 

The following are the high and lxj& priced 
years in which are the highest aild lowest 
monthly averages, which shows whon the 
changes commence in the ups and downs of 
the markets for pig-iron. 

In Finance Report the highest daily price 
in 1837, was, in January, 70 doUais per ton. 
In report of the Secretary Iron and Steel As- 
sociation, the highest monthly avtirages are 
as follows : 

1845, May, 34 J dollars pec ton. 

1854, June, 38 " " 

1864, August, 731 " 

1872, September, 53J " " 

The Finance Report gives the lowest daily 
price for 1834, in April, 38 dollars per ton; 
for 1843, in July, 22 J dollars per ton. 

In report of the Secretary Iron and Steel 
Association, the lowest monthly aventges are 
as follows : 

1850, July, 20 dollars per ton. 

1861, October, . 18| " " 

1870, December, 31J " " 

After the high priced year 1845, the price 
of pig-iron declined, and in 1846, '47, '48, '49, 
it continued on the downward scale; and in 
1850, the average by the table is 20J dollars 
per ton, making five in number of declining 



PIG-IRON. 37 

years since 1845, and recording severe depres- 
sion in the iron trade, following the depres- 
sions of 1834 and 1843. 

Our war with Mexico in 1846, '47, '48, and 
the influx of gold from California, did not 
have the effect of changing the direction of 
the price of iron, as it continued to decline 
during the war and after peace was declared. 
After the yesir 1850 the price again advanced 
in 1851, '52, '53 and in 1854, the price reached 
the high average of 36 dollars per ton, making 
four years of advances from 1850. 

The uncertainty of all manufacturing busi- 
ness, especially the manufacture of pig-iron, 
for the want of general knowledge when the 
periodical decline in price is to commence — ■ 
of which it seems our sharpest and most ex- 
perienced men have made mistakes, as serious 
and fatal as persons of less pretensions, experi- 
ence, and business qualifications — is exempli- 
fied in the following : 

The Iron King of the Hanging Rock iron 
region in Ohio, in the year 1854, was so led 
astray by success and fortunate operations in 
making pig-iron, as to order wood chopped 
and ore mined the fall and winter of that year, 
sufficient, it was claimed, to run a certain fur* 
Qace the succeeding year " thirteen months out 



38 benner's prophecies. 

of twelve.^^ As pig-iron at fifty dollars per ton 
would make all furnace owners rich, it was 
surely the veritable " Alladin's Lamp," and it 
was only necessary for furnace men to touch 
King Pig-iron and, ^'- mlrabile dldu,^^ up would 
come the oriental genii with untold wealth. 
But alas ! what of the times? Had the chances 
been studied, or were furnace men courting 
the "delusive phantom of hope" and blind- 
folding themselves ? What did the balance 
sheet of that year show ? A loss of fifteen 
thousand dollars. And why? Because the 
price of pig-iron had tumbled in obedience to 
the effects and mandates of that uniform, uni- 
versal and inexorable law of over-supply and 
ander-demand. 

There were a host of furnace men at that 
time whose thoughts were in the same chan- 
nel, and who claimed that iron was the scep- 
ter to wield and control the commerce of the 
world; and demanded fabulous prices for their 
furnace property, ignoring and forgetting the 
records of past history, that iron has its upg 
and downs like other articles of manufacture; 
and that its power to control is as potent on 
the decline as when on the advance. And in 
that year 1855, without their consent and 
beyond tneir control, and in accordance with 



PIG-IRON. 39 

an established natural rule, their pig-iron was 
left " high and dry," and as time glided along 
in the seven succeeding years, their property 
would not sell for one -half the sum that before 
a reasonable price demanded. The business 
became prostrated, and furnace men lost stacks 
of money; the great majority of owners were 
compelled to realize on their stacks of pig-iron 
and sacrifice their furnace property to keep 
out of bankruptcy. The price continued to 
decline to the year 1861. The writer knew 
of merchantable hot blast charcoal pig-iron 
selling as low as thirteen dollars per ton 
during the winter of 1860 and '61, in the city 
of Cincinnati. The seven years from 1854 to 
1861 were very disastrous to the iron trade, 
and prostrated more furnaces than any period 
of declines in the history of this country. 

The commercial reaction and financial dififi- 
culty of 1857, produced a general calamity ; 
paralyzed the hand of industry and cramped 
tiie energies of the people for four long con- 
tinued years after that revulsion. 

In the fall of 1860 the banks of Baltimore, 
Philadelphia, Richmond and other southern 
cities suspended, and in the spring of 1861 
the war of rebellion burst upon us like a clap 
of thunder in a clear sky, creating terrible 



40 benner's prophecies. 

disturbance in all the ramifications of busi- 
ness, stopping the wheels of commerce and 
producing general consternation and stagna- 
tion in the iron trade. 

I assert it here as a stubborn fact, as show- 
ing my faith in these cycles, that if the war 
of rebellion had commenced in 1854 or in 1864, 
the general course of prices for pig-iron would 
have been downward in the following seven 
years after 1854 and the following six years 
after 1864, succeeding the same condition to 
eras as the price after 1845 declined five years 
during the Mexican war of 1846, '47 and 
'48; however, the price would not have ruled 
so low in 1861 and 1870 as it did in 1850. And 
I also assert as an unquestionable fact, that if 
we had not have had the war of rebellion from 
1861 to 1865, the price of pig-iron nevertheless 
would have advanced in the years 1862, '63 
and '64, although the price would not have 
reached so high an average as it did in these 
years. 

These assertions coincide with our remarks 
heretofore, that war, panic, and elections do 
not change the general course of prices in 
their cycles ; however, it may be that war and 
commercial revulsions are coincident with the 
advance and decline of the price of pig-iron in 



PIG 'IRON. 41 

the present century. Now, again we have 
seen the price decline in 1865, ^66^ '67, ^68, '69 
and '70. Six years of decline, although the 
averages do not run so low as they did fron) 
1854 to 1861. 

Again the price takes the ascending scale 
in 1871, and scarcely two years from the mini- 
mum price of 1870 reaching the maximum in 
1872, when the average of forty eight dollars 
is recorded. Mark this advance, and remem- 
ber the twenty months' advance from 1843 to 
1845! The present cycle commencing with 
tlie advance of 1871 and '72, and continuing 
with the declines of 1873, '74 and '75, brings 
us up to tlie present year 1876. 

In tlie table of yearly average prices for 
the year 1847, the price is higher than in 
1846. The Financial Report gives the price 
lower in 1847 than in 1846 — there appears 
this discrepancy between these two authori- 
ties. Also for the year 1858 the price is 
lower than in 1859; which probably was 
occasioned by the panic in the fall of 1857, 
depressing the price in 1858 for a short time 
below its natural and proper position. And 
in 1865 we also notice the price depressed a 
fraction below the price of 1866. And again, 
in 1868 the price is lower than in 1869. These 



42 benner's prophecies. 

irregularities in the years of declines, if not 
errors in compilation, are likely effects of ac- 
cidental and temporary causes. In the yeara 
of advance in the price of- iron, we have none 
of these irregularities. 

It has been within the experience and ob- 
servation of the writer; and as for himself re- 
quires no authority for the information that 
the price of pig-iron was very high in the 
years 1837, 1845, 1854, 1864, and 1872, and 
that these years were the highest priced years 
since 1834; and also that the iron trade was 
severely depressed in the years 1834, 1843, 
1850, 1861, and 1870, and that these years were 
the lowest priced years since 1834. 

Now we have our data; having traveled 
over the facts in a voyage of discovery and 
secured our evidence, let us form our cycles 
and see if we can make out a rule. Com- 
mencing with the low priced year, 1834, we 
have stated that the price advanced three 
years to 1837; declined six years to 1843, 
making a cycle between low prices of nine 
years. Again the price advanced two years to 
1845, and declined .five years to 1850, making 
a cycle of seven years. Again advanced four 
years to 1854, and declined seven years to 1861. 
making a cycle of eleven years. Again ad- 



PIG-IRON. 43 

vanced three years to 1864, and declined six 
years to 1870, making a cycle of nine years. 
Again advanced two years to 1872, and de- 
clined three years to 1875. 

It will be noticed that the years of advames 
are as follows : 3, 2 — 4, S, 2. The declines are 
6, 5 — 7, 6, and 3, up to the present, denoting 
that the present declines are not full by two 
years, of which it is necessary to have a cy- 
cle of seven years in its order between low 
prices. Unless history in detail does not repeat 
itself, the future can not be judged by the 
past, and all human calculations as to cycli- 
cal movements in prices are as naught ; and 
there is not any thing sure and certain for 
man at the present day and age but death 
and taxes. 

We have so far but three years of decline 
from the high prices of 1872, and if the cycle 
of seven years, from 1843 to 1850, is to make 
its periodical return, and be repeated in its 
natural order of two j^earsof advance and five 
of decline, then the cycle of seven years be- 
tween low prices in its order is to be filled up 
from 1870 to 1877; and, therefore, we must 
have two years more of decline after 1875 to 
fill up the cycle, and we have no doubt but 
that "history will repeat itself" here as it has 



44 benner's prophecies. 

done in other cycles which will verify and es- 
tablish the accuracy of our prophecy. 

Let us return to 1837, after which there are 
six years of decline to 1843, and two years of 
advance to 1845, making a cycle in high 
prices of eight years. Again the price de- 
clines five years to 1850, and advances four 
years to 1854, making a cycle of nine years. 
Again the price declines seven years to 1861, 
and advances three years to 1864, making a 
cycle of ten years. Again declines six years 
to 1870, and advances two years to 1872, mak- 
ing a cycle of eight years. Again declines 
three years to 1875, requiring two years more 
of decline, and four years of advance to make 
a cycle of nine years, the next cycle in its 
order, which cycle in high prices ends in the 
year 1881, this year will be the next highest 
priced 3'ear for pig-iron. 

The following scale will enable the reader 
to better understand the difierent cycles in 
high and low prices, and the order in which 
thuy return. 



PIG-IRON. 



4fi 




THE PAST. 


UPS. 


DOWNS. 


1835 


1838 


3 1836 


1839 


1837 


a 1840 
^* 1841 






1842 




1843 


9 1844 

^ 1845 


1846 


1847 




5 1848 




1849 




1850 


1851 


1855 


4 1852 
^ 1853 


1856 


^ 1857 


18o4 


7 1858 




1859 




1860 




1861 


1862 


1865 


3 1863 


1866 


1864 


a 1867 
" 1868 






1869 




1870 


9 1871 
^ 1872 


1873 


1874 




1875 


THE FUTURE. 


1878 


1876 


4 1879 
^ 1880 


1877 




1881 


1882 




1883 




1884 




7 1885 




1886 




1887 




1888 


1889 




3 1890 


1892 


1891 


1893 




ft 1894 
" 1895 




9 1898 
-^1899 


1896 


1897 



46 BENNER'S PROPHECIES. 

At the bottom of the scale is shown the 
lowest priced years, 1834, 1843, 1850, 1861, 
1870 ; and in the future 1877, 1888, and 1897. 

At the top are the highest priced years, 
1837, 1845, 1854, 1864, and 1872; and in the 
future, 1881, 1891, and 1899. 

This scale shows that the cycles of the lowest 
priced years are in a decreasing series of 
arithmetical progression, and in the order of 
11, 9, 7, and repeat. The cycles of the high- 
est priced years are in an increasing series 
of arithmetical progression, and in the order 
of 8, 9, 10, and repeat. Also we observe that 
the price of pig-iron advances and declines 
in a decreasing series of arithmetical progres- 
sion, the advances in the order of 4, 3, and 2 
years, and repeat; the declines in the order 
of 7, 6, and 5 years, and repeat. 

Since 1834 and including 1875, the price of 
pig-iron has declined twenty-seven years, and 
advanced fourteen years, making the ratio of 
declines to the advances as two to one. The 
present cycle ending in 1877, will complete 
five cycles in low prices since 1834; the five 
cycles in high prices will be completed in 
1881. The return of the commencement of 
the difierent cycles in their periodical order 



PIG-IRON. 47 

is twenty-seven years, one-half the ordinary 
life-time of man. 

On page 45, the year of advances are grouped 
together, under the head of ups; and the 
years of declines under the head of downs 
for the old series, and continued in the future 
for the new series. We are now in the cj'cle 
of seven years between low priced years, and 
at the beginning of the fourth year of de- 
clines in this cycle, two more years will com- 
plete this cycle, and also the old series of the 
ups and downs. 

In the year 1878 we shall enter a new se- 
ries of ups and downs; the advances com- 
mencing with four years, and declines with 
seven years, making a cj^cle of eleven years 
in low prices. Also we are now in the cycle 
of nine years in high prices, and in 1881 the 
present high priced year cycle will be com- 
plete, and end. And after 1881 we shall enter 
the cycle of ten years in high prices, complet- 
ing this cycle in 1891. 

In the years 1878, 79, '80, and '81, the price 
of pig-iron will be on the ascending scale, the 
iron trade will again be prosperous^ and in these 
years, especially the last two, 1880 and 1881, 
money will be made very fast in this busi- 
ness» unless trammeled by unwise legislation 



48 benner's pbophecies. 

upon the currency and tariff; and in the 
year 1881, in the months of September and 
October, the price will be at the highest. After 
these months in that year, the price will have 
a downward tendency and begin to tumble, 
and it will be fortunate for all persons who 
may be readers of this book, and may regu- 
late their business affairs according to the 
light here shown, to close out their invest- 
ment at a good price in that year, and J> 
would be to the interest and benefit of our 
whole country if our iron men, statesmen, 
and others, would only take advantage of this 
information, which would be the means of 
placing more real money in the pockets of the 
people and coffers of the nation, than tlie 
wonderful alchemy at Washington, which is 
invoked by politicians to transform old rags 
into beautiful yet numberless greenbacks. 

When the iron trade is depressed, so is 
trade in every department of manufacture 
dull and unprofitable. It is to the interests 
of Trade Unions to ponder and well consider 
these predictions; as upon their certainty, 
their losses by strikes for higher wages, or to 
maintain former rates in these years of de- 
cline could be averted, by knowing the un 
changeable tendencies of the times. 



PIG-IRON. 49 

We have in the beginning predicted that 
the daily price in 1877 will run below twenty 
dollars per ton ; and in 1881 above fifty dol- 
lars per ton. The inspiration that directs this 
prediction is found in the fact that "one ex- 
treme invariably follows another," and that 
the daily price runs below twenty dollars per 
ton in all the low priced years, and above 
fifty dollars per ton in all the high priced 
years. 

The years 1882, '83, '84, '85, '86, '87, and '88^ 
will be years of decline in the price of pig- 
iron, and years of depression in this business. 
These seven years of decline will be a repe- 
tition of the seven years from 1854 to 1861. 
We have had but one of these seven year de- 
clines since 1834, and it would be to the ben- 
efit of this country if we should never have 
another; however, the writer is compelled by 
the rule of cycles to point it out in the fu- 
ture, and warn the iron trade of this impend- 
ing danger. And we proclaim it, to all who 
may be readers of this book, and engaged in 
any way in the iron trade, to be prepared 
after the year 1881 for breakers ahead!! 
What we have to say on these cycles in 
prices we are positive of, and we may as well, 
right here, state that this is a positive book. 
4 



50 benner's prophecies. 

In the repetition of these seven years of de- 
cline, which these cycles surely indicate, ev- 
ery furnace in this country will be slaughter ed, 
unless backed by large capital and ability to 
stand great loss, or hold their iron, stop their 
furnaces, husband resources, and wait for bet- 
ter times, as pointed out in these pages. 
These declines will not encounter a general 
panic, as did the former seven year declines 
in the panic of 1857, or the present five year 
declines in the panic of 1873; and, therefore, 
they will be more gradual. 

In the years 1889, '90, and '91, the price of 
pig-iron will be on the advancing scale again, 
and will be three years reaching the highest 
price in 1891. This will be a period of money 
making in the iron business, and these will 
be three years of general prosperity in all de- 
partments of trade and industry. 

After 1891 the prica of pig-iron will decline 
for six years, and these declines will again be 
disastrous to this business; in fact, all busi- 
ness will be on the same retreating road to 
hard pan, as they are in this year, and will be 
in the next, as the iron and other trades an«l 
industries after 1891 will be under the effects 
of a commercial and financial revulsion, aa 
shown hereafter under the head of " Panic " 



V 



pia-iRON. 61 

The writer now claims that his showing in 
the preceding pages of past prices in pig-iron, 
the cycles between high and low priced years, 
and their periodical return, has a legitimate 
bearing upon the future, that no one can 
gainsay, and no human knowledge can contra- 
dict; the predictions are based upon sound 
analogy; their fulfillment is demonstrated to 
a certainty ; and that time will surely verify 
the prophecies. 

The changes of the ups and downs in 
prices and cycles in the iron trade are peri- 
odical and not hap-hazard, and succeed each 
other in a gradual and natural order. 

After the price of pig-iron has declined 
from the high price of fifty dollars per ton 
down to as low as thirty dollars per ton, the 
sajang that then is the time to invest in the 
iron business, is the " ignus fatuus" that has 
swamped the iron men of this country in not 
having a clear conception of the number of 
years in which the declines continue. 

We can not determine when the price of 
any product or commodity is at the highest 
01 lowest by the knowledge of when prices 
begin to rise or fall ; we can only determine 
that by the number of years in the ups and 



52 benner's prophecies. 

downs comprising each diflferent cycle in high 
and low prices. 

T will record here some axioms which iiuist 
be admitted, because they are self-evident. 

Til at prices are high when they are above 
the cost of production on a declining market 

That prices are low when they are below 
the cost of production on an advancing mar- 
ket. 

When the price of an article declines below 
cost, production will diminish until demand 
increases and prices advance. 

When the price of an article advances 
above cost, production will increase until de- 
mand ceases and prices decline. 

And that the cost of production is the 
wages of labor, interest on capital, and wear 
of land and machinery. 

When the price of pig-iron is thirt}" dollars 
per ton, it may be either high or low, and like 
a certain game with cards, the points depend 
upon the trumps that are out. 

If the cost of production is above on a de- 
clining market, then thirty dollars per ton i? 
high ; if the cost of production is below on an 
advancing market, then thirty dollars per ton 
is low. 

The ratio of advance in price exceeds the 



PIGf-IRON. 63 

ratio of increase in cost of production, and 
there is money made very fast in the iron 
business during the 2, 3, and 4 years of ad- 
vance in price. 

On the other hand, the ratio of decline in 
price exceeds the ratio of decrease in the cost 
of production, and furnaces lose money on the 
5, G, and 7 years alternately of the decline in 
price, unless wages and expenses are curtailed 
in time. 

To apply our Cast Iron Rule, when the 
price of pig-iron has been as high as fifty dol- 
lars per ton, the price in the succeeding 
years has invariably declined to twenty dol- 
lars per ton ; and, vice versa, when the price 
has been as low as twenty dollars per ton, the 
price afterward, in a certain number of years, 
has advanced as high as fifty dollars per ton. 

The iron business is a very uncertain trade 
for persons to engage in w^ho are not ac- 
quainted with the number of yea.YS in which 
the price advances, as they are only from two 
to four years, while the declines are from five 
to seven years. 

The enormous home production and excess- 
ive importation of foreign iron in 1871 and 
1872 produced a break in prices, and with the 
over production of 1873 and 1874, and the 



54 benner's prophecies. 

panic of 1873, the iron trade is again pros- 
trated. 

To persons not acquainted with the rules 
by which these changes occur, as regulated by 
an overruling providence, it is to them a 
wonderful illustration of the peculiarities of 
trade and the uncertainty of pri(3e3, as at- 
tempted to be explained by our limited 
knowledge of supply and demand. 

In the spring of 1872 the country was pros- 
perous and advancing beyond all past his- 
tory ; railroads were extending their lines 
across the continent in every direction, mark- 
ing the most gigantic railroad expansion the 
world ever beheld ; creating an unpreceden- 
ted demand for iron, giving an impetus to the 
manufacture thereof, that had no parallel in 
the history of this or any other country, run- 
ning the production to nearly three millions 
of tons in that year. All at once comes a 
snap and a crash: a reaction sets in so speedy 
and terrible, so general and decided, that we 
become amazed at the mysterious workings 
of this trade and the decrees of an all-wise 
Providence. 

The decline in the price of pig-iron sincf 
1872 has been over fifty per cent. 

Iron masters are crying out, "Give us pro- 



PIG-IRON. 55 

tection or we are ruined," while the silent 
whisper to "reduce the product" is not will- 
ingly and generally heard. The Secretary of 
the Iron and Steel Association" reports that 
out of 701 furnaces on the first of February, 
1874, there were 398 stacks out of blast; nev- 
ertheless there were fifty new furnaces com- 
pleted in 1873, thirty-eight in 1874, and forty- 
six stacks in the course of erection, and other 
new furnaces projected in 1875. What blind- 
ness and what folly 1 1 

The remedy at present is not to be found in 
a tarifi" alone on foreign importation ; a home 
competition is here in our midst more formid- 
able than all foreign competition combined. 
Seven Hundred Furnaces, some of which 
cast one hundred tons of metal per day, are ready 
to swell the home production on the first show 
of an advance in price, beyond the most ex- 
traordinary consumption, and producing stag- 
nation more disastrous than ever. 

It is a hard alternative for furnace men to 
be compelled by the "logic of facts and 
events," to blow out their furnaces and sus- 
pend business for so long a time, but to be 
'* forewarned is to be forearmed ; " is it not the 
part of wisdom and policy to stop before the cap- 
ital is gone and stock unprofitably consumed 7 



5G benner's prophecies. 

We have not seen, in our experience or ob- 
servation, neither do the facts and records of 
modern history show, a permanent advance 
until after five years from the highest price ; 
and is the presen-t decline and cycle to be an 
exception to all others? and in the face of, 
and succeeding the greatest supplying capac- 
ity the world has ever witnessed ? and when 
other manufactures and trades, and all rail- 
roading is depressed and unprofitable, and 
when all Europe stands ready to supply any 
demand at pauper prices outside of this 
country ? 

, Verily, the hand- writing is upon the wall^ 
and so plain it needs no magi to decipher 
what it means. 

HOGS. 

The history of the Hog Crop and its va- 
rious manufactures and products is intimately 
connected with the growth and progress of 
the Corn Crop, and the price of one now 
generally fluctuates with the price of tho 
other. 

The packing of pork before the era of rail- 
roads was confined to very narrow limits, and 
there was not much value placed upon the 
hog at that period, as will be seen by the fol 



HOGS. 



57 



lowing sketch written by Charles Cist, of 
Cincinnati, Ohio : 

" Hog raising has always been a profitable, 
and therefore a favorite department of farm 
ing in what was formerly called the West, 
but which now constitutes the great center, as 
respects population, of our rapidly expanding 
republic. The rich harvests, to be had sim- 
ply for the gathering, yielded by the oak, 
beech, hickory, and other trees of our forests, 
popularly termed mast, formed, to a great ex- 
tent, for many years, fattening food for swine. 
The roots in the woods, with the natural 
grasses, supplied subsistence during the spring 
and summer months, so that the sole expense 
to the farmer, in raising hogs, was the feeding 
jf those too young for market, and of those 
reserved for stock and for increase, at the cost 
:)f the Indian corn necessary for their winter 
sustenance. In early days, and before the in- 
troduction of railways, this cereal would not 
repay the expense of transportation to mar- 
ket, and therefore hardly entered into the con- 
sideration of what it cost to raise hogs. In 
fact, taking into view the prolific character 
of the animal, and the small amount of labor 
and expense involved in its care and cure, it 
was the general impression in the West that it 



/*8 benner's prophecies. 

iost nothing for a man to make his own pork, 
and for a long time vast quantities of slaugh- 
tered hogs were sold in this region at prices 
ranging from seventy-five cents to one dollar 
per hundred weight, and considered suffi- 
ciently remunerative at these rates. The 
writer has seen in the southern portion of 
Illinois, and within twenty-five miles of land 
carriage to the Ohio, immense quanties of 
Indian corn offered at six cents per bushel ; 
yet at this low figure the grain would not 
bear transportation to the river. 

"The farmer, unless in the neighborhood of 
a distillery, was compelled to feed his crop to 
his cattle or hogs% Even at a much later 
date, between the scarcity of timber for fuel, 
and the low price of corn, large quantities of 
the latter article have furnished fuel in the 
prairie region of the State referred to. 

" As the cultivation of the country opened 
and the wood ranges became more restricted, 
it was found that it paid better, while it was 
more convenient, to feed the hogs on corn than 
to turn them out to the woods, as they grew 
faster and increased more rapidly in fat as 
well as in flesh, while the quality both of 
meat and lard, was thereby greatly enhanced 
in value. At this period, for want of good 



HOGS. 59 

roads, grain to a limited extent only was sold 
to the whisky distillers; its low price not 
permitting it to be carried by wagons to the 
distilleries unless from short distances. Under 
these circumstances pork packers commenced 
at various points in the West for the supply 
of the eastern markets, while the rapid in- 
crease of hogs kept pace with the correspond- 
ing improvement of the western country and 
the enlargement of its corn crops. 

" Then came the era of railroads. It was at 
once seen that hogs could be delivered at 
market points, either East or West, at less 
expense, in shorter time and in better condi- 
tion, than they had hitherto been taken by 
droves. There was also no giving out of the 
hogs on the route. The natural result was to 
give a new impulse to the raising of swine; 
and from that period the hog became one of 
the most important staples of the country." 

In examining the history of prices for hogs 
the past half century, we find that the price 
ruled very low up to the year 1830. This waa 
the period when there was so little demand 
in Cincinnati for any portion of the hog other 
than hams, shoulders, sides and lard, that the 
heads, spare ribs, neck pieces, back bones, etc^ 
were regularly thrown into the Ohio river to 



60 benner's prophecies. 

get rid of them. Afterwards, in 1835 the pro- 
ducts of the hog became more valuable, and iq 
the year 1836, in the city of New York, the 
price of mess pork advanced to thirty dollars 
per barrel, and lard to eighteen cents per 
pound. (See Finance Report of 1863.) Thia 
year was a very high priced year for hogs and 
their product. I have not been able to get 
the average price for fat hogs at this time, as 
there were probably none compiled; therefore 
we are compelled to take the price of prod- 
uct as we find it given by official authority. 
After the year 1836 the price of product 
declined each year to 1842. Mess pork was 
quoted in New York at six dollars and seventy- 
five cents per barrel. The highest quotation 
in the decade from 1840 to 1850, was in the 
year 1847, the great famine year in Ireland. 
Mess pork in New York City was sixteen 
dollars per barrel, eleven years from the high 
prices of 1836. Mark this ! 

I have not been able to collect reliable 
yearly average prices for fat hogs prior to the 
year 1855, as there ajopears to be no sources 
accessible to obtain them; and as I have not 
the evidence to show any noticeable periodi- 
city or regularity existing in the return of 
low prices before that time, I therefore com- 



HOG& 



61 



PRICE NET. 



GROSS. 



mence my table of averages in the year 1855, 
whicli is twenty-one years ago, and forty years 
since 1836, the commencement of our cycles 
in high prices for product and hogs. 

Table of average prices for fat hogs at Cin- 
cinnati, Ohio, since 1855, and the whole num- 
ber of hogs packed in the West during the 
winter seasons of 1849, '50 to 1874, 75, in- 
:5lusive, as compiled by the Cincinnati Price 
Current. 

TEARS. NO. OF HOGS. 

1849 . . 1,652,220 

1850 . . 1,332,867 

1851 . . 1,182,846 

1852 . . 2,201,110 

1853 . . 2,534,770 

1854 . . 2,124,404 

1855 . . 2,489,502 

1856 . . 1,818,468 

1857 . . 2,210,778 

1858 . . 2,465,552 

1859 . '. 2,350,822 

1860 . . 2,155,702 

1861 . . 2,893,666 

1862 . . 4,069,520 

1863 . . 3,261,105 

1864 . . 2,422,779 

1865 . . 1,785,955 

1866 . . 2,490,791 

1867 . . 2,781,084 

1868 . . 2,499,8?3 

1869 . . 2,635,312 



S6.05 


$4.84 


6.23 


4.99 


5.16 


4.13 


6.58 


5.27 


6.21 


4.97 


5.97 


4.78 


3.28 


2.63 


4.45 


3.56 


7.00 


5.60 


14.62 


11.70 


11.96 


9.57 


7.52 


6.02 


8.25 


6.60 


10.51 


8.41 


11.82 


9.46 



62 



benner's prophecies. 



YEARi>. 



NO. OF HOGS. 



PRICE NET. 



OEOSS. 



1870 . . 3,695,251 . . S8.25 $6.60 

1871 . . 4,831,558 . . 5.45 4.36 

1872 . . 5,410,314 . . 4.90 3.92 

1873 . . 5,466,200 . . 5.73 4.58 

1874 . . 5,566,226 . . 8.74 6.99 
Average price at Cincinnati for 20 years i.« 

$7.43 net or $5.94 gross. 

The difference that Cincinnati pays above 
the average for the West is as follows: 

1872 1873 1874 

Cincin'ti net. $4.90 $5.73 $8.74 

West " 4.65 5.43 8.33 



25 30 41 

These dates refer to the years in which the 
crop was made. The packing season com- 
mences in November and ends in the following 
March. It is shown in the table that the av- 
erage price for hogs was greater in 1856 than 
in 1855, but less in 1857. This depression in 
the advance was produced by the panic, how- 
ever, in 1858, the general course of price 
asserts itself with an average higher than 
either of the three years preceding it. After 
the high priced year 1858, the average starts 
out on the descending scale, declines in 1859, 
'60 and '61, making three years of declines 
with an average in 1861 of two dollars and 



HOGS. 63 

sixty tliree cents per hundred weight gross. 
Tliis year was the beginning of the war, when 
farmers were almost compelled to give away 
their hogs on account of the low prices that 
prevailed. 

It is a well known fact to the farmers and 
packers, that when the price of hogs advanced 
in 1862, '63 and '64, that all parties made 
money; and that these years of advances cul- 
minated in 1864 with an average of eleven 
dollars and seventy cents per hundred 
weight gross, which is the highest yearly 
average price ever paid in this country for 
hogs. In the years 1865 and ^66, the average 
price declines, making only two years of de- 
cline after 1864. In 1867 the price takes the 
ascending scale, — higher in 1868, and still 
higher in 1869, with an average of nine dollars 
and forty six cents per hundred weight gross, 
making three years of advance after 1866. 
After the year 1869 the price took the descend- 
ing scale; lower in 1870, '71 and '72, getting 
down to the average of three dollars and ninety 
cents per hundred weight gross, making three 
years of decline after 1869. In the year 1873 
the price advanced notwithstanding the great 
revulsion in trade of that year, and continued 
to advance in 1874; and the average will be 



64 benner's prophecies. 

higner in 1875 than in 1874, making three 
years of advances since 1872. 

Now let us go back in review and form our 
cycles. Commencing with 1836, a high priced 
year in product, we find the next high priced 
year in product to be the j^ear 1847, eleven 
years from 1836. Extending this eleven years 
forward we have the high priced year 1858; 
our commencing year in high average prices 
for hogs. Extending the time eleven years 
further gives us the high priced year 1869, 
making three eleven year cycles in high 
prices. 

Again let us return to the year 1850, a low 
priced year for hogs, and add eleven to that 
year, and we have the year 1861 a low priced 
year; add eleven again, and we have 1S72, a 
low priced year, making three eleven-year 
cycles in low prices. 

But we are traveling too fast, and we must 
return to 1847, a high-priced year. After thi^ 
year the price declined three years to 1850, 
and then advanced three years to 1853, mak- 
ing a shorter cycle of six years in high prices ; 
also after 1853 the price declined two years to 
1855, and then advanced three years to 1858, 
making a cj^cle of five years in high prices, 
and these two shorter cycles from 1847 to 



HOGS. 65 

1858, making an eleven year cycle. After 
1858 the price declined three years to 1861, 
and then advanced three years to 1864, mak- 
ing a short cycle of six years in high prices. 
Also after 1864 the price declined two years to 
1866, and afterwards advanced three years to 
1869, making a cycle of five years in high 
prices, and completing another long cycle of 
eleven years. Now, again, after 1869 the price 
declined three years to 1872, and then ad- 
vanced three years to 1875, making a cycle 
again of six years in high prices, and com- 
pleting one of the short cycles composing the 
present eleven year cycle, which will end 
with a short cycle of five years in the year 
1880. Returning to 1850, the next low priced 
year was 1855, making a cycle of five years in 
low prices. After 1855 the next low priced, 
year was 1861, making a cycle of six years in 
low prices. Again after 1861 the next low- 
priced year was 1866, making a cycle of five 
years in low prices. After 1866 the following 
low priced year was 1872, making a cycle of 
six years in low prices. 

It will be noticed that the short cycles com- 
posing the eleven year cycles in high prices, 
since 1847, have been alternately six and five 
years; and the short cycles in low prices, since 
5 



66 benner's prophecies. 

1850, have been alternately five and six 
years. 

The axiom, " History repeats itself," implies 
a cyclical movement in human affairs, and {is 
it is a generally received opinion that every 
thing moves in cycleSj especially in nature, 
we are forced to predict, judging the future 
by the past, that in the years 1876 and '77 the 
price of hogs must decline in the average, so 
as to fill the required number of years neces- 
sary to complete the present five and eleven 
year cycles in low prices ending in 1877; also 
after two years of decline there must be three 
years of advances to the year 1880, to com- 
plete the next five and eleven year cycles in 
high prices, and therefore demonstrating to a 
certainty and to the comprehension of all, the 
fulfillment of our second series of prophecies. 

On the following page is a scale of years to, 
enable the reader to see the difierent cycles 
in their order, also the ups and downs in 
prices for the past and in the future. 

This scale shows the years of lowest and 
highest prices for the hog and its product? 
since 1836, coming down in five and six yea? 
cycles after 1847. At the top of the scale are 
the highest priced years, 1836, 1847, 1853, 
1858, 1864, 1869, and 1875 for the past, and 



HOGb. 



67 




PAST. 



UPS. 


DOWNS. 


1856 


1859 


1857 


1860 


1858 


1861 


1862 




1863 


1865 


1864 


1866 


1867 


1870 


1868 


1871 


1869 


1872 


1873 


, 


1874 




1875 




FUTUKE. 


1878 


1876 


1879 


1877 


1880 




1884 


1881 


1885 


1882 


1886 


1883 


1889 




1890 


1887 


1891 


1888 



68 BENNERS PROPHECIES. 

1880, 1886, and 1891 for the future. At the 
bottom are the lowest priced years, 1850, 1855, 
1861, 1866, 1872, for the past, and 1877, 1883, 
and 1888 for the future. 

We have now passed out of the cycle of six 
years in high prices, the year 1875 closing this 
cycle. The next cycle in high prices will re- 
quire five years ending in 1880 ; at that time 
the price of hogs will be high. 

We are also in the cycle of five years in low 
prices, this cycle ending in 1877, when the 
price of hogs will be low, and farmers com- 
plaining about the prices they are compelled 
to accept for their hogs. Pig-iron will also be 
at a low price at that time, placing agricul- 
ture and manufacture at a low ebb ; prices 
low all round will make "hard times" and 
"dull trade." 

After 1877 agriculture and manufacture 
will go hand in hand, the price of hogs and 
pig-iron will be on the ascending scale, busi- 
ness in all departments will improve up to 
the year 1880 and 1881, after that time prices 
will decline and advance alternately in each 
different branch of trade, until the year 1891, 
when general business will culminate through- 
out the country, especially with iron and 



HOGg. 69 

hogs, two of the most important and leading 
branches of trade. 

It is to be observed that the price of hogs 
do not go up and down with the number of 
hogs packed. By referring to the column in 
1858, d high priced year, the packing exceeds 
any previous year with the exception of 1853. 
In 1862 the price advanced with the enormous 
packing of four millions of hogs. In 1869 the 
price advanced, while the packing exceeded 
that of 1868; and also the same may be said 
of 1873 and 1874 over the packing of 1872. 

The price of hogs invariably advance three 
years in succession. In the year 1859 the 
price declined, while the packing was short 
of 1858. Also in 1860 the price declined, 
while the packing was short of 1859. In 
1865 the price declined, while the packing 
was short of 1864 600,000 hogs. 

In some of the years, as the packing in- 
creased or decreased in number, so the price 
advanced or declined; an increase of packing 
diminished the price, and vice versa. There- 
fore it is not safe to rely too much upon re- 
sults based upon the number of hogs packed. 

The price of hogs decline two and three 
years alternately in the cycles of low priced 
years. 



70 benner's prophecies. 

The aggregate number of hogs in all the 
states and territories, as estimated by the De- 
partment of Agriculture at Washington in 
1873, was 32,632,000; in 1874, was 30,860,900 
The packing in 1873 and 187-1 was about one 
sixth of the whole number in each year. 
Chicago packs more pork than any city in the 
United States or in Europe. Total number 
packed in 1874 was 1,690,348 hogs — nearly 
one-third of the whole packing of 1874. 

As the winter packing of hogs is only about 
one-sixth of the total number produced, it is 
an important question what becomes of the 
other five-sixths, and what proportion is an- 
nually killed. I must acknowledge this to be 
a task, to undertake to make out such an ac- 
count by any system outside of the art of 
"double-entry book-keeping." Almost ever}'' 
farmer's family, for domestic consumption, kill 
from one to twenty or more hogs every year, 
and there has never been any statistics com- 
piled for a record of the number thus slaugh- 
tered. 

There were engaged in farming, according 
to the census of 1870, 5,922,471 persons, about 
one-sixth of the population ; if each farmer had 
killed on the average but one hog, the aggre- 
gate would exceed the total winter packing foi 



UOGS. 71 

3ommerce of 1874. Then we must considei 
the number of hogs that have been slaugh- 
tered by butchers in the cities and towns, the 
number that annually die with disease, and 
also the number that is reserved for stock and 
for increase. From these facts we can under- 
stand why the price is not altogether governed 
by the number of hogs packed in our large 
cities ; since 1868 the number of hogs packed 
has yearly increased. 

Every farmer, feeder, drover, and packer, 
should know the years in which the price of 
hogs are to advance or decline. There are 
seldom any two years in succession in which 
the average price ranges the same. In the 
table of averages, there are two years in which 
they are the same, 1867 and 1870; however, 
they are three years apart, one on the ad- 
vance, the other on the decline. 

In the years 1858, 1864, and 1869, a great 
many persons made money on hogs, and, 
elated with good fortune, were tempted to try 
again in 1859, 1865, and 1870; and through 
ignorance of the workings of the ups and 
downs in prices, were caught with one dol- 
lar corn-fed into six dollar hogs, and they lost 
the profits and gains of the preceding years, 
and no doubt the same will be repeated by 



72 benner's prophecies. 

others in 1876; as 1875 was a profitable and 
a high priced year. We see continually some 
of our best traders "caught out in the wet," 
and to some persons it will always require a 
Columbus to show them how the egg is to 
stand upon its end. 

The price that hogs will bring each year 
can be approximated by the course of the past 
averages; however, it is governed by supply 
and demand, and state of trade in reference 
to the past commercial revulsion and the fu- 
ture coming crisis and the condition of the 
currency. Periodical revulsions do not in 
their effects change the general course of 
prices in their cycles, but they have a tempo- 
rary influence to depress prices below their 
natural and proper position, and an after in- 
fluence to keep down the averages to lower 
limits. If the people would only learn such 
years and stay out of this business, or confine 
themselves to smaller trade, when these de- 
clines in prices are to take place, especially 
after panic years, they would not complain so 
much of "hard times" and "high taxes." 

Farmers think that packers do not pay a 
sufficient price for hogs, when prices are on 
the decline. 



HOGS. 



73 



Packers think they are paying too much 
for hogs, when prices are on the advance. 

Now in both cases, farmers and jpackers are 
at a loss to know what the future development 
of prices will be. 

In the farmer's case, he receives all there is 
in the market, whether it covers cost or not, 
and the packer loses money on the further 
decline. 

In the packer's case, he pays the market 
price, and makes money on the further ad- 
vance. 

It is an established fact that the quantity 
of hogs in this country is ruled and governed 
by the current price of corn. 

In the commencement of the periodical ad- 
vance in the price of corn, and until it reaches 
the highest price, large shoats are marketed 
and butchered, the hogs that should be win- 
tered are slaughtered ; small farmers and feed- 
ers sell their stock hogs in the fall and win- 
ter, to large feeders and speculators. In 
consequence of hogs being massed they get 
overlaid by large numbers bedding together 
during the cold and inclemency of the winter ; 
and without the use of the kitchen-slops, and 
by the use of soft, frosted, and rotten corn, 
peculiar to these years, they become diseased, 



74 BENNER^S PROPHECIES. 

and therefore more die by cholera, thumps, 
and other diseases. 

On the other hand when the price of corn 
begins its periodical decline, and until it gets 
to the lowest, farmers and small feeders keep 
their stock hogs, and by the more equal dis- 
tribution in smaller numbers, hogs live, are 
more healthy and plenty. Farmers think it 
will pay better to feed their corn to stock 
hogs, and raise more young hogs, than to sell 
their corn on a declining market ; but in this 
they are mistaken, as they are unknowingly 
producing cheap pork for the whole world, by 
an over production, the surplus of which has 
to go out of the country for consumers. 

The amount of hog products exported cor- 
responds inversely with the prices; when- 
ever we export large amounts they are at low 
prices, and when prices are high our exports 
are inconsiderable. 

To sell corn and hogs at the market price 
in the fall to others who have not studied the 
chances, the production in the years of de- 
cline is made profitable by them who know 
when to come in out of the storm. When the 
periodical advance in the price of hogs is ap- 
proaching, the butchers, drovers, and packers 
secure contracts by subtle arguments with the 



HOGS. 76 

farmers for their hogs, and as a consequence 
the farmers are not benefited to the full ex- 
tent of the advance, as they are induced to 
engage too soon, therefore they lose the op 
portunities which belong to them. It is tlie 
usual expression and opinion that when a 
farmer has his hogs fat, that then is the time 
to sell ; this depends upon what cycle of sea- 
sons and prices are ruling in the markets of 
our country. If on the periodical decline, 
after a year of short crops and high prices 
the previous year, such as 1858, '64, '69, and 
75, then would be the time to sell. If on the 
periodical advance after a year of good crops 
and low prices the previous year, such as 1861, 
'66, and 72, then if you have a little "specula- 
tion in your eye," it no doubt would be a good 
time, and pay you to hold for a rise. ^ 

As buyers and sellers of products we can 
only be gainers by scarcity and high prices, 
and that only for that article which was ob- 
tained when plenty and at low prices. 

Speculating in hogs is generally with the 
majority a matter of heads and tails; when 
successful they are owlish wise, and of course 
know all about it; but when taiis^ then the 
"devil is in the hog^ It is a most signifi' 
cant fact in these price cycles, and a confirma- 



76 benner's prophecies. 

tion of the theor}'' that God is in prices — that 
the price of corn and hogs could advance in 
the years 1873, '74, and '75, during and im- 
mediately succeeding the great revulsion in 
trade of 1873, and when all business was be- 
coming depressed and prostrated in manufac- 
turing industr}^, trade unions striking to 
maintain former rates, mills and furnaces 
closing their doors, merchants complaining of 
dull times, millions of laborers and mechanic? 
idle, and no work to do. Yet we say, notwit? 
standing all this, corn, hogs, and provisioru^ 
have advanced in price in these years ; for the 
cycle of six years in high prices from 1869 to 
1875 was to be filled, and it would have been 
contrary to the order and laws of nature to 
have been otherwise. 

CORN. 

This cereal is known as the largest of all the 
grain crops, and one of the most useful prod- 
ucts known to man. It is the chief basis for 
provisions, and a very important element in 
our breadstuff supplies. Notwithstanding the 
greater value of v/heat per bushel, corn is the 
great item in the prosperity of the West, and 
upon the good price of corn depends the wel- 
fare of the farmer. A large and over-estimated 



CORN. 



77 



corn crop, that reduces the price to a nominal 
sum, makes farmers feel poor, and in turn re- 
acts upon merchants and manufacturers, an^. 
brings about dull trade. 

Our agric-iltural products and stock are the 
basis and si pport of all commerce, and of all 
business and trade in every department of 
human activity, and upon which all other 
industries rest. Their scarcity or abundarice 
depends apon the seasons, and mostly require 
a year to bring them to perfection and ma- 
turity, while manufactured commodities can 
generally be produced in any quantity, and 
"in a much shorter time.' 

The commerce of the world is so dependent 
upon agricultural productions, that to ascer- 
tain their probable annual amount, has be- 
come an object of the greatest utility. A 
scarcity or abundance of crops affects the ex- 
changes of the world, and tends to forecast 
future prices, and to give some clue to future 
production. 

Estimated yield of corn in the United 
States from 1840 to 1874— the years 1862, 
'63, and 'G4, for Northern States only- and 
average prices from 1862 to 1874 inclusive, 
collectel from agricultural and statistical re- 
ports. 



7^ 



benner's prophecies. 



{EARS. 


FBOD UUTION. A VERA9R 
PRICES. CT8 


1840 . ; 


. 377,000,000 . . 




1850 . . 


. 592,000,000 . . 




186C . . 


. 838,000,000 . . 




1862 . . 


. 533,000,000 . . 


34 


1863 . . 


. 397,000,000 . . . 


69 


1864 . . 


. 530,000,000 . • . 


99 


1865 . . 


. 704,000,000 . . 


46 


1866 . . 


. 867,000,000 . . 


68 


1867 . . 


. 768,000,000 . . 


69 


1868 . . 


906,000,000 . . 


62 


1869 . . . 


774,000,000 . . . 


75 


1870 . . 


1,094,000,000 . . 


54 


1871 . . . 


991,000,000 . . 


48 


1872 . . . 


1,092,000,000 . . . 


39 


1873 . . , 


932,000,000 . . 


48 


1874 . . . 


854,000,000 . . . 


65 



If we could have yearly average prices of 
corn for the whole country since 1825, we 
would find that they would show the same 
regularity in ups and downs that they do after 
1862. The Finance Report of 1863 in giving 
prices for the New York markets (which are 
a long ways from the corn producing states) 
shows that prices were very high in 1825, '26, 
in 1836, '37, in 1847 and in 1858. The statis- 
tics of the Department of Agriculture show that 
the average price was very high for 1864; in 
fact higher than ever before in this country; 
aad again the price is at the top figures in 



CORN. 79 

1869, as can be seen in the table of yearly 
average prices for corn. The average price 
for 1875 will be high, and it is the next high 
priced year after 1869. These high priced 
years correspond with the price of hogs. These 
years are the highest priced years since 1830, 
making eleven year cycles up to 1858, after- 
wards in short cycles of 6 and 5 years to 1864, 
'69 and '75. The next high priced year for 
corn, which is in the future, will be the year 
1880, eleven years from 1869, and five years 
from 1875. 

We find the cycles of eleven years in low 
prices by taking the quotations in the Finance 
Report of 1863 for the New York markets, and 
commencing in 1828, a low priced year, run- 
ning to 1840, then to 1850, and to 1861; after- 
wards according to the yearly averages, as 
shown in our table to 1872, the last low priced 
year. The next low priced year coming down 
to five year cycles, will be in 1877, and the one 
following eleven years from 1872, will be 1883. 

The same scale of prices for hbgs will answer 
for corn. When the price of hogs has been 
high the price of corn has been high, and the 
same when the price of hogs has been low, the 
price of corn has been correspondingly low, 
After 1858, high and low priced years run in 



80 ^ benner's prophecies. 

the same order of six and five year cycles in 
the price of corn that they do for hogs. 

Now judging the future by the past, and 
looking to history to repeat itself with ap- 
proximate accuracy in detail, it is our judg- 
ment upon which we predicate this prophecy, 
that the average price of corn up to the year 
1891, will advance and decline with the aver- 
age price of hogs, as shown in the scale of 
cycles in the price of hogs; and that the gen- 
eral advance and decline in the price of corn, 
will precede the general advance and decline 
in the price of hogs. This is inferred from 
the fact, as before stated, that the current price 
of corn governs the quantity of hogs in this 
country. 

The price of hogs, if $2.50 gross, on the 
farm, will realize to the farmer 25 cents per 
bushel for his corn. 



$3.00 


Gross, 


30 cents 


per Bushel. 


4.00 




40 


u 


u u 


5.00 




50 


u 


u u 


6.00 




60 


li 


(( a 


7.00 




70 


u 


u u 


8.00 




80 


n 


a a 


9.00 




90 


i( 


U 11 



10.00 " 100 " " " 

The average prices gross for hogs comparetl 



CORN. 



81 



with the average prices for corn per bushel 
since 1862, in which the fact can be noticed 
that the price of one follows the price of the 
other in the ups and downs since the year 18G8 
as regularly as evening follows morning. 



HOGS, GROSS. CORS PER BUSHEL. 




1862 

1863 

1864 

1865 

1866 

1867 

1868 

1869 

1870 

1871 

1872 

1873 

1874 

1875 



Average prices for 1875 not collected and 
published in time for this book. 

The corn crop never falls short in the grow- 
ing corn as much as one-half, but a large crop 
can be cut short by frosts, floods, damp, etc., 
in the amount secured. It is not so much in 
the failure of the crop, as in that which is 
done with it. 

The rational explanation of the partial 
6 



82 benner's prophecies. 

failure of the corn crop in any one year, may 
be found in the peculiarities of the seasons. 
The number of acres planted is no criterion 
of future production and prices. 

We were well informed in the summer of 
1874, by the Agricultural Bureau at Washing- 
ton, the commercial bulletins of the East, and 
crop reporters of the West, that there were 
two million more acres in corn that year than 
in the year 1873. Some of the eastern papers 
were clamorous that the crops of 1874 were 
simply enormous, and that prices would rule 
very low; therefore the "bears" of the East 
commenced to fix the price of oorn on the 
supposition of very great abundance, while 
the merchants began to grow concerned about 
their stocks of merchandise, for fear the farm- 
ers in their poverty would not be able to take 
the usual amount. Now what was the corn 
crop and price for 1874, compared with 1873, 
taking the estimates of the Department of 
Agriculture for production and prices, as they 
are the only statistics at my command. 

1873, Production, 932,000,000 Price, 48c 

1874. " 854,000,000 " 65c. 

78,000,000 17c. 



COBN. 83 

A decrease of seventy-eight million of 
bushels in product, and an increase of seven- 
teen cents in price. 

This surely shows if there can be any de- 
pendence placed upon these statistics, that 
seasons make large or small crops, and that 
future prices can not be foretold by the acre- 
age planted or sown. 

The number of acres in corn and produc- 
tion in all the states and territories in the 
year 

1872 was 35,526,836 product 1,092,000,000 

1873 " 39,197,148 " 932,000,000 

3,670,312 160,000,000 

This statement shows an increase in area 
planted of three million six hundred and 
seventy thousand three hundred and twelve 
acres, while there was a decrease in product 
of one hundred and sixty million of bushels, 
with an advance in average price in 1873 
over 1872 of nine cents per bushel. 

This increase in area planted is equal to 
the whole number of acres in corn in 1873 in 
the great state of Iowa, the second state in 
the union for corn. With this very large ad- 
dition in area for corn, it is a surprising fact 



84 benner's prophecies. 

tliat the number of bushels produced was one 
hundred and sixty million of bushels less 
than the year before. 

Is it any wonder that some operate upon an 
overestimate, and others on an underestimate,, 
when Ave see that the seasons have so much 
influence to make large or small crops, and 
also when our knowledge is so limited in re- 
gard to meteorological phenomena, which re- 
peat themselves in well defined and estab- 
lished periods ? 

It has been argued, and is proverbial, that it 
does not make any difference to the farmers 
whether they raise large or small crops in the 
aggregate; what they lose in price they gain 
in quantity, and what they lose in quantity 
they gain in price. 

Now let us see if statistics of agriculture 
will carry out this assertion. Let us take the 
hist cycle of six years between high prices of 
which we have the yearly average prices, for 
all the states and territories. Commencing 
with the high priced year 1869, and ending 
in 1874, the year before the next high priced 
year, giving us three years of small produc- 
tion and high prices, and three years of large 
production and low prices. 



CORN. 85 

Years in which were the smallest number of 
bushels produced and highest prices: 

1869 774,000,000 75c. 580,500,000 

1873 932,000,000 48c. 447,310.000 

1874 854,000,000 65c. 555,100,000 



2,560,000,000 1,582,960,000 

Yours in which were the largest number of 
bushels produced and lowest prices: 

1870 1,094,000,000 54c. 590,760,000 

1871 991,000,000 48c. 475,680,000 

1872 1,092,000,000 39c. 425,880,000 



3,177,000,000 1,492,320,000 

In the large crop years of 1870, '71, and '72, 
there was produced six hundred and seven- 
teen millions of bushels more of corn than in 
the small crop years of 1869, '73, and '74, and 
there was realized in these small crop years, 
by the farmers, ninety million and sixty-four 
thousand dollars more money. 

This statement is as clear to the world as 
the light from a kerosene lamp, if there can be 
any approximate correctness in the estimates 
of the Department of Agriculture, that it 
does make a difference, and that all the labor 
employed and exerted, and expenses incurred 



86 benner's prophecies. 

to produce and handle this six hundred and 
seventeen millions of bushels more of corn in 
1870, 71, and 72, than in 1869, 73, and 74, 
was so much labor and money literally thrown 
away so far as the farmers' direct gains were 
ooncerned, while they should have raised 
twenty millions of bushels more corn to have 
realized the same money that was realized 
out of these short crop years. 

Let us make a comparison by taking the 
years in this cycle of the greatest extremes 
in production : 

1869 . . 774,000,000 75c. 58,050,000 
1872 . .1,092,000,000 39c. 42,588,000 

318,000,000 15,462,000 

There were produced in 1872 three hundred 
and eighteen millions of bushels more of corn 
than in 1869, and there were realized fifteen 
million four hundred and sixty-two thousand 
dollars less money. 

As corn was cheap in 1872, and the farmers 
fed a great portion of it to hogs, let us see 
how they came out with hogs : 

1869 . 2,635,312 hogs packed 9.46, 24,930,051 
1872 . 5,410,314 " " 3.92, 21,208,430 

2,775,002 3,721,621 



CORN. 87 

In 1872 there was sold to packers two mil 
lion seven hundred and seventy-five thousand 
and two hogs more in 1872 than in 1869, and 
the farmers realized three million seven hun- 
dred and twenty-one thousand six hundred 
and twenty-one dollars less money. 

It is evident that in the years of decline to 
lower prices, a large over-estimated yield is 
not the boon desired by the farmer, and it ia 
undoubtedly to the interest of the farmer to 
use more of that energy that relaxes no effort ; 
the perseverance that never grows weary in 
striving to produce more corn in the years of 
advances towards higher prices. 

The farmer, however, is placed in the same 
category in respect to low prices that the man- 
ufacturer is placed ; if the farmer has to take 
a low price for his grain and stock at inter- 
vals, he is compensated in being enabled to 
purchase manufactured commodities in their 
low priced years, therefore alternately each 
has its years of high and low prices that 
either can take advantage of. 

It is to the interest of the farmer not to be 
governed too much by present demand, and 
not to continue in the course it directs too 
long. The demand can be calculated— the 
population does not always vary with the 



88 benner's prophecies. 

seasons; it is the supply that makes gener 
ally the fluctuations in prices. It is in the 
nature of things that the farmer should re- 
ceive the benefit of three years advance in hia 
corn and hogs in every cycle of prices, and it 
would be injustice to him if he should be 
compelled to lose his labor and toil by the 
wolfish and bearish cry of enormous crops and 
low prices. 

The ups and downs in prices for corn, hogs, 
and pig-iron, and the activity and depression 
in general trade, are no doubt caused by an 
over and under production for a term of years, 
and the writer has an idea that these cycles 
in prices, which are so well defined, and re- 
peat themselves with such surprising accu- 
racy, are connected in some way with the 
cycles of nature, which are fixed because they 
are produced by regularly and permanently 
fixed causes, which are constant and uniform. 

The peculiarities of the weather and atmos- 
pheric currents, producing these extremes 
which are not conducive to large crops of 
either stock, or grain, were seen in the polar, 
current which came down from high lati- 
tudes on a course parallel to the Rocky Moun- 
tains in the year of 1874, producing the sever- 
est and most continued cold we have exper* 



CORN. 89 

ienced for eleven years, since the winter of 
1863-'64j and in the summer of 1875 the trop. 
ical current or trade winds being deflected by 
the Mexican elevations, entered the great 
basin of the Mississippi, and again deflected 
by the mountain spurs in Alabama, they 
swept freely over the states of Kentucky, 
Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa; 
the great corn region of the world, laden with 
the aqueous vapors of the Gulf of Mexico, 
and coming in contact and condensed by these 
cold northern currents, occasioned in June, 
July, and August of 1875 the greatest amount 
of rain-fall and most disastrous floods since the 
years 1836, 1847, and 1858. 

In all the years prior to and including the 
high priced years in corn and hogs, we have 
had extremes in the weather. We had 
droughts in 1845, '46, and heavy rain-falls in 
1847. The heat droughts and cold winters of 
1856, '57, and '58 were very remarkable. The 
cold winters and droughts of 1863, '64, were 
unprecedented. Extremes of heat, rain, and 
droughts in 1868 and '69 were disastrous to 
the crops, and the same can be said of 1873, 
74, and '75. The years 1879 and 1880 will 
again be years of extremes in the weather, 
producing short crops and high prices. 



90 benner's prophecies. 

We have the information from high astron- 
omical authority, that in the year 1880 we are 
to have a planetary combination as to three 
of the largest planets connected with our solar 
system, such as has not occurred before for 
about 2,300 years. These planets are all to 
reach the nearest point in their orbits to the 
sun at the same time, having the effect upon 
the earth of the most violent and wonderful 
changes in her atmospheric and magnetic 
system that has ever been recorded in his- 
tory. 

COTTON. 

To give contemporary testimony to corrob- 
orate and verify our price cycles in corn and 
hogs, we will take the price of cotton, which 
grows out from the ground, and is affected by 
the weather. Corn and cotton occupy all the 
territory lying between the lakes and gulf. 
The cotton crop of the Mississippi would be 
affected by the floods at the North whenever 
we would have extraordinary rain-falls, or by 
unusual early or late frosts. 

The price of cotton collected from Finance 
Reports of 1857, '58, '63, and '73, these prices 
being from the most reliable sources accessi- 
ble in the absence of any other official record; 





COTTON. 


1821 


16o. 


1855 


1822 


16 


1856 


1823 


11 


1857 


1824 


15 


1858 


1825 


20 


1859 


1826 


12 


1860 


1827 


10 


1861 


1828 


10 


1862 


1829 


10 


1863 


1830 


9 


1864 


1831 


9 11 


1865 


1832 


9 


1866 


1833 


11 


1867 


1834 


12 


1868 


1835 


16 


1869 


1836-^ 


16 


1870 


1837 


14 


1871 


1838 


10 


1872 


1839 


14 


1873 


1840 


8 


1874 


1841 


10 


1875 


1842 


8 11 


1876 


1843 


6 


1877 


1844 


8 


1878 


1845 


5 


1879 


1846 


7 


1880 


lo47 


lU 




1848 


7 




1849 


6 




1850 


11 




1851 


12 




1852 


8 11 




1853 ' 


9 




i854' 


9 


1891 



91 

8c. 
9 

12 
—11 

11 

lOJ 

16 

41 

74 
1 05 11 

57 

40 

23 

26 
—29 

20 

17 

22 

19 

11 



11 



92 benner's prophecies. 

These prices are for New York, which are 
sonietimes ruled by speculators, and allowance 
must be made for their incorrectness. 

The price of cotton is more influenced by 
the state of trade in the world than the price 
of corn and hogs, and therefore it does not fol- 
low the production in this country so close as 
the former products. Commencing in 1825, 
we find the price of cotton to be twenty cents 
per pound, the highest quotation in the scale 
— except during the war of rebellion; the next 
highest quotation is in 1836, eleven years 
from 1825. In looking ahead in the table, we 
find 1847 a high priced year in respect to 
other years preceding and immediately after 
that year. Again in 1858, we find a high 
price with the year before and the year after, 
all high priced years. Again, in 1869 we have 
the next high price after the war, the war 
coming in on a short cycle of six years. Now 
extending our price cycle of eleven years from 
1869, it gives us the year 1880, our next high 
priced year for cotton, and running eleven 
years further, we have the year 1891, when 
cotton, corn, hogs, pig-iron, will be at a high 
price, and general business prosperous — up to 
that year. 



PROVISIONS. 93 

PROVISIONS. 

Tlie year of the provision trade begins the 
first of November and ends on the last day 
of October. 

The statistics are mostly made up com- 
mencing with November. HoAvever, with 
these statistics, as generally compiled, the 
writer in his observation does not lay much 
store by them. 

How many hogs are annually killed is one 
of the mooted and unsolved problems of the 
day. The statistics of winter and summer 
packing of hogs are no doubt reliable, or as 
near correct as can be compiled, but the do- 
mestic killing by farmers and butchers is 
not collated for the public, which is a very 
important item to be considered in our pro- 
vision statistics. Therefore we are forced to 
take for granted that a part is not sufficient 
without the whole. 

It is almost an impossibility to procure full 
and reliable statistics of the exact amount of 
hog products in this country ; and also what 
becomes of all the pork, bacon, lard, etc., that 
are prepared in this country to be consumed 
at home, or sold to commerce. And again, 
what the probable commercial demand »vill 



94 benner's prophecies. 

be for hog products within the provision year. 
As there are so many elements entering into 
the probable supply and prospective demand, 
that we can not form a correct opinion in ref- 
erence to the advance or decline in prices 
other than by keeping in view the advance 
and decline in the general course of prices 
for hogs from year to year. 

The price of the hog products have hereto- 
fore followed closely to the price of hogs. 
Taking the last cycle in high prices for hogs, 
we find that after the high priced year 1869, 
the price of provisions declined in 1870, '71, 
and '72, reaching the lowest limit in the sum- 
mer of 1872. In the year 1873, when the 
price of hogs advanced, provisions also ad- 
vanced. Speculators are generally alive to 
these facts, and on these periodical advances 
they are ready and willing to operate, and in- 
vest as described in the following. 

Chicago was well convinced in 1873, while 
hogs were advancing in price, that " then was 
the time in the price which, if taken at the 
advance, leads on to fortune," and her opera- 
tors went in on a bull speculation, and not 
only bought up all the stock offered at current 
rates, and contracted for all prospective sup- 
plies for Chicago, but went to New York and 



PROVISIONS. 95 

bought up all stock offered, and all options, 
also went into European markets, and bought 
back their own stuff that had been shipped 
early and at low prices, and when the combi- 
nation had secured the control of the mar- 
kets, up went the price to extraordinary figures 
for the first year of advances in hogs and pro- 
visions after the former declines. Chicago 
was happy, and her speculators pocketed 
millions of money. 

This Western bull campaign in provisions, 
with its lofty Texian horns tossing the mar- 
kets to such dizzy heights as it did in 187o 
could not have been successful, with all its 
financial strength, in any of the years of de- 
cline in the price of hogs. 

The speculators who nasLj attempt in 1876 
or 1877 to bull the provision markets, can no 
more thrive and prosper than can swamp 
fever live on the lofty peaks of Chimborazo. 
And if this speculation be undertaken in 
these years, these Western operators will real- 
ize that they are mistaken, and will be 
slaughtered in this business as surely as were 
the deluded Hindo pilgrims mistaken in the 
means of salvation, and uselessly slaughtered 
when casting themselves between the wheels 
of the car of Juggernaut. 



96 benner's prophecies. 

PANIC. 

Panics in the commercial and financial 
world have been compared to comets in the 
astronomical world. It has been said of com- 
ets that they have no regularity of move- 
ment, no cycles, and that their movements 
are beyond the domain of astronomical 
science to find out. 

It has been admitted by astronomers that 
the comet of 1874, named Coggia, was a new 
comet and a stranger; one that has not vis- 
ited this part of the universe before within 
the history of mankind. However that may 
be, the writer claims that Commercial Revul- 
sions in this country, which are attended with 
financial panics, can be predicted with much 
certainty; and the prediction in this book, of 
a commercial revulsion and financial crisis 
in 1891 is based upon the inevitable cycle 
which is ever true to the laws of trade, as 
affected and ruled by the operations of the 
laws of natural causes. 

The panic of 1873 was a commercial revul- 
sion ; our paper money was not based upon 
specie, and the banks only suspended cur- 
rency payments for a time in this crisis. 

As it is not in the nature of things in each 



PANIC. 97 

succeeding cycle to operate in the same time 
and manner, the writer claims that the ^' signs 
of the times" indicate that the coming pre- 
dicted disturbance in the business world will 
be not only an agricultural, manufactur- 
ing, mining, trading, and industrial revul- 
sion, but also a, financial catastrophe, producing 
a universal suspension of specie payments, 
and the closing up of all the banks in this 
country. 

It is not necessary to give a detailed ac- 
count of the effects of disorderly banking in 
our colonial and revolutionary history, and 
the different panics prior to the war of 1812, 
to establish cycles in commerce and finance. 

Such a history would fill many pages with- 
out answering the purpose of this book, and 
would be as intricate and difficult to under- 
stand as the prices of stocks and gold in Wall 
Street, as the eternal fitness of things at that 
time were on trial, and necessarily unsettled, 
80 far as man could understand. 

The war of 1812 was the period in the his- 
tory of the United States of America when 
it was deemed a necessity for this country to 
become a manufacturing nation, as a balance 
wheel to maintain the prosperity of agricul- 
ture and commerce, and also to declare her in- 
7 



98 benner's prophecies. 

dependence forever from an}?- nation upon the 
earth. 

It is a doleful commentary upon the times 
that such calamities in the history of our 
country, as hereafter mentioned, should have 
occurred amidst a profusion of all the ele- 
ments of wealth, prosperity in trades and 
manufactures, and independence in the arts 
and sciences. 

It will only be necessary for the purposes 
of this book to state that the business of this 
country before, during, and after the war of 
1812 had culminated in the year 1819, as 
commercial history will show ; and that a re- 
action in business followed this year, the be- 
ginning year in our cycles of commerce and 
panic. 

However, we deem it important to notice 
at this period the operations of banking in 
brief as a good criterion of the prosperity and 
adversity in general business, and the fluctu- 
ations in the activity of industry and com- 
merce. 

In the Report of Finances for 1854, '55, it is 
stated that from the adoption of the Federal 
Constitution in 1787 to the year 1798, no pea 
pie enjoyed more happiness or prosperity than 
the people of the United States, nor did any 



PAHC. 99 

country ever flourish more within that space 
of time. During all this time, and up to the 
year 1800, coin constituted the hulk of the 
circulation; after this year the banks came, 
and all things became changed; like the upaa 
tree, they have withered and impaired the 
healthful condition of the country, destroyed 
the credit and confidence which men had in 
one another, and inflicted on the people polit- 
ical and pecuniary diseases of the most deadly 
character. 

The bank-note circulation began to exceed 
the total specie in the country in the years 
1815, '16, and '17, and in the year 1818, the 
bank mania had reached its height ; more 
than two hundred new banks were projected 
in various parts of the Union. The united 
issues of the United States Bank, and of the 
local banks, drove specie from the country in 
large quantities, and in the year 1819, when 
the culmination in general business had been 
reached, and contraction of the currency be- 
gan to be felt, multitudes of banks and indi 
viduals were broken. The panic producing a 
disastrous revulsion in trade, caused the fail- 
ure of nine-tenths of all the merchants in 
this country and others engaged in business, 
and spread ruin far and wide over the land 



100 ' benner's prophecies. 

Two-thirds of the real estate passed from the 
hands of the owners to their creditors. VoL 
umes would be required to portray the horrors 
and sufferings produced by this general com- 
mercial and financial revulsion in business 
and trade. i 

A banktT, in a letter to the Secretary of 
State, in 1830, describes the times as follows : 
" The disasters of 1819 which seriously afiected 
the circumstances, property, and industry 
of every district of the United States will be 
long recollected. 

" A sudden and pressing scarcity of money 
prevailed in the spring of 1822; numerous and 
very extensive failures took place in 1825 ; 
there was great revulsion among the banks 
and other monied institutions in 1826. The 
scarcity of money among the trades in 1827 
was disastrous and alarming ; 1828 was char- 
acterized by failures among the manufactures 
and trades in all branches of business. La- 
mentable and rapid succession of evil, and 
untoward events prejudicial to the progress of 
productive industry, and causing a baneful 
extension of embarrassment, insolvency, liti- 
gation, and dishonesty, alike subversive of 
Bocial happiness and morals. 

"Every intelligent mind must express regret 



PANIC. 101 

and astonishment at the occurrence of these 
disasters in tranquil times and bountiful sea- 
Bor.s, amongst enlightened, enterprising, and 
industrious people, comparatively free from 
taxation, unrestrained in pursuits, possessing 
abundance of fertile lands and valuable min- 
erals, with capital and capacity to improve, 
and an ardent disposition to avail themselves 
of the advantages of these great bounties." 

After the year 1828 business continued to 
be depressed, vibrating according to circum- 
stances until 1834, a year of extreme dullness 
in all branches of trade ; after which our stock 
of precious metals increased very fast, busi- 
ness revived, and in the year 1835 and '36. 
the imports of gold and silver increased to an 
enormous extent ; as the banks increased their 
reserves of specie, they also correspondingly 
issued bank notes — each increased issue of 
paper money led to the establishment of new 
banks. 

The State banks that had numbered in 
1830 only three hundred and twenty-nine, with 
a capital of one hundred and ten millions, 
increased, according to the treasury report, by 
the first of January, 1837, to six hundred and 
twenty-four, or, including branches, to seven 



102 BENNER^S PROPHECIES. 

hundred and eighty-eight, with a capital paid 
in of two hundred and ninety millions. 

Mark the result! and culmination II a 
panic n I in the month of May, 1837, and 
suspenpion of specie payments by all the 
banks, and a general commercial revulsion 
throagliout the country, involving the fortunes 
of mercihants, manufacturers, and all classes 
en Imaged in trade, in consequence of a ruinous 
fall in prices. This year of reaction makes 
the sec )nd year in our panic cycles, and is 
eighteei years from 1819. 

It is not necessary to go over almost the 
same 1 istory again to show that business 
was de[>ressed, and trade was stagnant after 
1837 down to the year 184,3, and then up and 
down to the year 1850, a year of extreme 
dullness in all branches of trade and industry, 
after which year a change came, and business 
was again prosperous to the year 1857, when 
we again experienced a commercial and finan- 
cial crisis and reaction, not only in this country 
but all over the world, making the third year 
in our cycles, and twenty years from 1837. 

History repeats itself with marvelous accu- 
racy in detail from one panic year to another. 
The general direction of business after the 
panic of 1857 was on the same downward 



PANIC. 103 

grade that had characterized the times after 
the panics of 1819 and 1837, until all business 
had culminated in depression in the yeai 
18G1, after which trade again improved, and 
was very active during the war of rebellion and 
up to the year 1865, when a temporary reac- 
tion set in ; and, reader, let me observe here, 
that if then had been the time for a commer- 
cial revulsion and panic in money, the catas- 
trophe would have been the most deplorable 
national calamity upon record. However, the 
cycle was not then complete, and the com- 
merce and trade of the country continued to 
be semi-prosperous until 1870, after which 
year commercial activity was the order of the 
day, all branches of business and manufacture 
flourished and was prosperous; our railroad 
building was astonishing in the world in the 
years 1871, '72; but the end must come, and in 
September, 1873, we had the culmination— a 
crushing panic, and reaction in all trades, 
manufactures, railroads, and industries, which 
is still going on, and we have not yet reached 
hard pan. 

These are facts of late history, and are so 
fresh in the recollection of the mind of the 
reader, that it is only necessary to refer to 
them. The panic of 1873 makes the fourth 



104 benner's prophecies. 

year in our panic cycles, and sixteen years 
from 1857. 

As to whether it is the paper money or the 
manufacturing and t:^ading industries of the 
country, which call out and into use the pa- 
per money that produce these periodical in- 
flations and contractions, by which trade is 
stimulated and deranged, and extremes in 
business activity is brought about, is a mat- 
ter for the statesman and historian to ascer- 
tain and record ; it is only sufficient for our 
present purpose to point out the panic years, 
and to show that the preceding years were 
prosperous and profitable years in trade; 
while the succeeding years, for a certain 
length of time, were years of depression and 
loss in business; and we observe that since 
the business of the country has abandoned 
specie as a currency, and adopted paper 
money in lieu thereof, the manufacturing 
interests have attained larger proportions, 
and that there are more regularity and system 
in the return of the advance and decline in 
general business, and that the culminating 
years in activity and depression can be calcu- 
lated and ascertained with greater certainty. 

The cycles in panics with the cycles of 
PIG-IRON in the same scale. 



PANIC. 



106 




106 benner's prophecies. 

The panics of 1819, '37, '57, and '73, during 
this period of years, stand out upon the pages 
of the history of this country in their magni- 
t/ide compared with other panics, as the planet 
Jupiter compares with the lesser planets in 
our solar system. 

Commencing with the commercial revulsion 
of 1819, we find it was eighteen j^ears to the 
crisis of 1837; twentj^ years to the crisis of 
1857; and sixteen years to the crisis of 1873 — 
making the order of cycles sixteen, eighteen, 
and twenty years and repeat. The cj^cle of 
twenty years was completed in 1857, and the 
cycle of sixteen years ending in 1873, was the 
commencement of the repetition of the same 
order. It takes panics fifty-four years in theii 
order to make a revolution, or to return in the 
same order; the present cycle consisting of 
eighteen years will end in 1891, when the next 
panic will burst upon us with all its train of 
woes. 

Returning to the bottom of the scale, there 
we find tho years of poor trade and hard 
times; between panic yeais in the scale there 
are two low points, indicating two different 
times of depression in the iron business ; these 
low points indicate the hard pan years in gen- 
eral bu^^.n?>«ya. Confidence after these years, 



PANIC. 107 

especially after the latter, exercises its empire 
and casts overboard the incubus that has 
weighed down enterprise and energy; these 
years are the ending of the declines, the begin 
ning of better prices and more prosperous 
times. The year 1877 is the next low point 
in our scale for price of pig-iron. This year 
will be a dull and unprofitable year for the 
iron trade, and also for general business. 

The next high point will be 1881, a prosper- 
ous year for the iron business. However, in 
the year 1882, and the six succeeding years 
running to 1888, like the years after 1854 and 
1864, we may look for squalls in the money 
market, blue-Mondays, black-Fridays, and tor- 
nadoes in banking, and the first financial flury 
under the coming specie basis, which will 
have to rest upon a confidence artificially 
created and artificiall}^ supported, unless the 
currency is contracted to that minimum which 
would prostrate the industries of the country, 
paralyze the life and energy of our people, and 
produce convulsions and depressions only 
equaled in the years succeeding 1819, '37, and 
'57, filling up the pages of history with com- 
mercial and financial disasters,' as they were 
filled up to 1834 and 1850. After the year 
1888 the price of pig-iron will advance, all 



108 benner's prophecies. 

business will be prosperous, corn and hogs 
will be on the advance, agriculture and inanu 
facture will be active, all trades and industries 
will make money up to the year 1891, when 
we predict a panic which will not be confined 
to the United States, or this continent, but 
will sweep over the world like the panics of 
1819 and 1857, and will be felt with equal 
severity in other countries. 

Since 1819, panics burst upon us after the 
price of pig-iron had commenced to decline, 
and therefore it is not chargeable to a general 
panic as the direct cause of the price of iron 
taking the descending scale; the price declines 
without a general panic, (see scale after 1845, 
and '64,) and the same will be the case in 1881. 
In 1891, the commencement of the decline in 
tlie price of pig-iron will precede the panic of 
September or October of that year. 

The writer claims that the iron trade is the 
chief and ruling industry in this country, jf 
not in the world. Iron is the most useful (i 
all metals, in fact the bone and sinew of oui 
civilization, and the most important element 
of progress, as seen in the sewing machine, 
reaper and mower, spinning-jenny, power 
loom, steamboat, railroad, laud and submarine 
telegraph. And as the iron industry raises or 



PANIC. 109 

falls in the scale of prosperity, so does the 
general business of the country. Pig-iron is 
our north ytar to guide us over the dangerous 
roads of commerce. It is the barometer of 
trade, and as the sudden falling of the mer^ 
cury denotes violent changes in the atmos- 
pherical world, so does the periodical decline 
in the price of pig-iron indicate panic, depres- 
sion, and general stagnation in business. 

The United States of America will in the 
future surpass all the world besides, in the 
production of pig-iron and in the manufacture 
of its products; and if this trade could be es- 
tablished upon a firm basis, and the labor 
employed in dull times until it has accumu- 
lated capital, with the ingenuity, invention, 
and skill of the indomitable Yankee in the 
complex processes of its manufacture, with 
our abundance of cheap raw material, and by 
the aid of natural gas for fuel as lately and 
successfully applied at Pittsburg, a thorough 
knowledge of the ups and downs of prices in 
the markets and cycles of good'^and bad trade, 
this industry in this country in its colossal 
proportions, would in a short time, defy the 
world's competition, give us better and 
choaper iron; give more steadiness to prices, 



110 benner's prophecies. 

and greatly mitigate the consequences of peri- 
odical crises and depressions. 

The highest and lowest prices in the cj^cles 
of high and low priced years for iron are in a 
progressive order, as reported in the monthl5 
price tables of the Iron and Steel Association. 
'f he high prices commencing in January, 1837, 
going over to May in 1845, to June in 1854, tu 
August in 1864, and to September in 1872. 
The low prices, commencing in April, 1834, 
reaching to July in 1843, to July in 1850, to 
October in 1861, and December in 1870; show- 
ing that each cycle extends a fraction over the 
required years. The low prices for 1877 will 
run into January of 1878. 

The panic of 1819 began early in the year, 
and that of 1837 in May, and of 1857 in Sep 
tember, and of 1873 in September. The price 
of pig-iron in 1881 will not reach the maxi- 
mum until September; after that month it 
will begin to decline. The price of pig-iron 
in 1891 will not begin to decline before Sep- 
tember, as the panic will not appear before 
that month in that year. 

Astronomy tells us that eclipses return in 
the same order every eighteen years. Every 
eclipse within this period of eighteen years 
belongs to a separate series of eclipses; that is, 



PANIC. Ill 

fchere is but one eclipse during the eighteen 
years which belong to the same series. This 
periodical return was discovered by the an- 
cients, and by this rule they were able to fore- 
tell the appearance of many of the eclipses 
years in advance; and by close observation 
through many centuries, astronomers at this 
day can foretell the exact hour and minute of 
the appearance of any or all the eclipseSc 
Other cycles of motion in the heavens vary in 
their particular order of series. Science will 
yet show that there is a reality in the connec- 
tion between human events and the operations 
of nature; the causes and the laws by which 
they operate we are now ignorant of. 

The cycles in panics and ups and downs in 
prices of agricultural and manufactured arti- 
cles are but the effects of a cause, which is 
manifested in periods of sixteen, eighteen and 
twenty j^ears in panics; that return in the same 
order every fifty-four years, in periods of eight, 
nine, and ten years in the price of pig-iron; 
which return in the same order every twenty- 
seven years, and down to five and six years in 
the price of corn and hogs; which return in 
the same order every eleven years; and by a 
series of observation in the future, the particu- 
lar month and day could be ascertained when 



112 benner's prophecies. 

these changes in the ups and downs in prices 
will occur. When once these cycles are de- 
fined, ascertained, and calculated upon to a 
month and day, by a careful compilation of 
prices in each cycle, and the natural causes 
producing them discovered and verified, then 
their return can be calculated to continue in 
that exact order as long as other cycles in mo- 
tion; as they are the efiects of other motions, 
and will return with as much certainty and 
astronomical exactness, as the return of the 
eclipses of the sun and moon ; and it does not re- 
quire a belief in the fabulous to have faith in 
their periodical appearance. These cycles in the 
operations- of cause and effect have always ex- 
isted. There ha^ been no confusion. Man iuis 
been continually making discoveries of the 
manner in which the laws of nature operate. 

In my predictions I stated that 1876 and 77, 
would be years of great depression in general 
business, and that there would be many fail- 
ures in these years ; they will come at the end 
of the five years' decline in the price of pig- 
iron ; and it does not require a gift of prophecy 
to foretell many failures in all of these years. 

The " signs of the times " can be calculated 
by comparing 1876 and 1877 with other years 
after commercial panics, and the fall in the 



PANIC. 



113 



price of pig-iron — for instance, 1842, '43, and 
I860, '61— and the state of business preceding 
these years, remembering that 1876 is presi- 
dential year, and that presidential years like 
1820, 1840, and 1860, immediately succeeding 
commercial revulsions, are years of depression 
in business, the uncertainty of the times and 
of future legislation clogs the wheels of 
commerce and stops business. " Hard times " 
and "dull trade" are surely upon us for the 
next two years. The working man who de- 
pends upon his labor for his living, espec- 
ially they who are engaged in the iron trade, 
surely have a dreary prospect— compelled by 
low wages to practice the most rigid economy 
in the necessaries of life, in the use of bad 
flour, black molasses, pressed shoulders, and 
store pay. And in the depression of the agri- 
cultural, manufacturing, and industrial inter- 
ests, as they will be depressed all over the 
land in the next two years, the sting of hard 
times will come to every man's home. 

In all these years of reaction and depression 
in general business. Providence works upon 
the minds of men, as witnessed at the present 
time by the religious excitement in the East, 
created by the evangelists Moody and Sankey, 
as instruments in the hands of God to start id 
8 



114 benner's prophecies. 

motion a religious wave that will in the next 
two years sweep over the entire western 
country. — Men in time of trouble put more 
trust in God, and are inclined to more thought- 
fulness. 

The writer stated in his predictions that 
notwithstanding the resumption of specie 
payments, the price of iron and hogs will be 
higher in 1879 than in 1878. The price of 
iron and hogs will have already suffered a 
diminution in premium and price in their 
low priced year 1877. It is natural for prices 
to advance in 1878, 1879, and 1880, and no 
legislative act can prevent it. The return to 
specie payments will give confidence in busi- 
ness and stability to trade. 

Congress made a mistake in not fixing 
January 1, 1878, as the time for the resump- 
tion of specie payments ; this delay will cause 
the government and people to lose twelve, 
months of recuperative strength in the great 
commercial and financial battle of 1891. 

January 1, 1878, is the time when all need- 
ful and necessary contraction of the currency 
for a specie basis will be in conformity wi ti- 
the universal contraction of business, which 
will have been going on ever since the re- 
vulsion of 1873, and when general depression 



PANIC. 115 

w^ill have reached the very bottom of hard 
pan, and when the times will demand that 
contraction in trade and currency must cease, 
and the ending of the cycle in low prices for 
pig-iron, the great jupiter of trade. 

The combined interests of the people will 
demand that this incubus and scare-crow upon 
industry and trade be confined to the shortest 
period consistent with the times, and that 
there be no contraction after the year 1877. 
Agriculture, manufacture, mining, commerce, 
finance, and the cycles of high heaven demand 
it ; to restore business confidence ; to relieve 
general distress, and to repair national and 
i ndividual disaster. 

Commercial panic is the reaction from over 
trading and over expansion of credit and con- 
fidence, an excess of commerce and finance. 
Political economy abounds in theories to ex- 
plain the cause of panics. It is not necessary 
to look about for a cause; commercial and 
financial revulsions are the- consequences of 
many causes. 

When the price of iron begins to decline 
there is a panic in iron. When the price of 
hogs commence to decline there is a panic in 
hogs. When the price of cotton, wool, wheat, 
or any product begins to fall, there is a pani-o 



116 benner's prophecies. 

in that particular article ; the supply exceeds 
the demand. ' Prosperity in the aggregate 
creates general confidence, and expands credit, 
and this swells the prosperity, increases the 
demand for money, inducing banks to extend 
their issues and loans to the utmost, until the 
climax is reached; then comes the panic, the 
inevitable crisis and reaction ; the pressure 
to realize produces a decline in prices ; confi- 
dence is lost, capital, ever sensitive, with- 
draws ; a run commences on the banks, ending 
in financial and commercial disaster. 

Commercial revulsions are governed by a 
law beyond the control of man, and are con- 
fined to no creed, party, or politics. 

The panic of 1819 was in Monroe's admin- 
istration ; that of 1837 in Martin Van Buren's; 
of 1857 in James Buchanan's; and of 1873 in 
U. S. Grant's. 

No governmental or congressional subsidies ; 
no legislative enactments, tariffs, or currencies ; 
no financial syndicates, convertible or inter- 
changeable bonds ; no bribery of legislators or 
betrayal of constituents can arrest or change 
their course. 

When the period arrives for a panic, any 
breeze or signal, no matter what reverses the 
engine, the times take the downward grade, 



PANIC. IJ7 

and there is no general recovery until we 
Iier-r pig-iron demanding 

" Watchman ! what of the Night ? " 

This ideal will have been standing out 
upon the dome of the weather-beaten tower of 
time, gazing into the dim vista of the future, 
for five long years of disaster and ruin, wait- 
ing for the period foreseen and predicted, 
when the glimmer of the year 1878 can be 
discerned in the eastern horizon, not a mete- 
oric flash which illumes the night with a 
transient and uncertain glow; but the con- 
tinued morning radiance, which is the fore- 
runner of the full light and glory of a bright 
noon-day — will then exclaim AROUSE, PIG- 
IRON ! monarch of business ! come forth from 
the chambers of thy slumbering silence, the 
dawn of a new era is at hand ! hogs, corn, and 
cotton fall into line, and start in motion the 
wheels of commerce, industry, and trade ! 

The resumption of trade and industry in 
the year 1878 must go on ; the Gibraltar of 
hard times will be passed in 1877; the millg 
and furnaces will start up; the price of pig- 
iron, hogs, corn, and provisions will be oc 
the advance.- Agriculture, manufacture, min 
ing, commerce, and finance, will begin tc 



118 benner's prophecies. 

prosper ; the industries of all this country will 
be born of new life, and with our finances 
upon a sound basis, and a stop put to the 
enormous importation of foreign goods, that 
we can manufacture ourselves, which will 
give us the balance of trade, and enable us to 
keep our gold at home, and a general knowl- 
edge among the people of the duration of the 
ups and downs in prices, and when we may 
expect the return of commercial panics — this 
country with its forty millions of population, 
seventy thousand miles of railway, and two 
hundred millions of acres of cultivated land, 
will prosper and advance beyond any nation 
which has appeared in all ages of the world, 
and the chronicles of its future history, if 
well written, will rival the stories of oriental 
imagination. 

THEORY. 

We have had to hunt down Price Cycles 
by establishing periodicity in high and low 
priced years; the length of the different 
periods in which they have repeated them- 
selves, and by indisputable dates, facts, and 
figures, demonstrating their regularity. 

The cause producing the periodicity and 
length of these cycles may be found in our 



THEORY. 119 

solar s^ystem. The writer does not claim a 
knowledge of the causes and conditions under 
which they occur, and the reasons why they 
occur; meteorological scientists have heen labor- 
ing and exploring the records of all ages to 
discover a Meteorological Cycle — the great desid- 
eratum of the age. 

In the Elements of Meteoeology, by Prof. 
John H. Tice, of St. Louis, Mo., published in 
1875, are meteorological cycles, demonstrated 
and verified according to his theory, which is 
that Planetary Equinoxes are the causes of the 
disturbance to which our earth and atmos- 
phere is periodically subject. 

That all the elements of disturbance are 
physically interwoven with and inseparable 
from the planetary system, and that Jupiter 
at his equinoctial points suffers physical per- 
turbations both in his body and atmosphere, 
probabl}^ more intense than the disturbances 
at our equinoxes. These cause similar atmos- 
pherical and physical paroxysms in Jupiter, 
as our equinoctial disturbances do; namely, 
electric and magnetic storms and earthquakes 
in the body of the planet ; and in the atnios* 
phere, violent tornadoes and hurricanes, ac- 
companied with terrible electric explosions, 
heavy rain-falls and hail storms, and that 



120 benner's prophecies. 

these equinoctial disturbances in Jupitei 
affect the sun, and through the sun the solar 
system. The result upon the earth and its 
atmosphere is an enormous increase of elec- 
tric intensity. Gives the equinoxes of Vul- 
can, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, 
and Saturn, and also a historical record of 
auroras, sun-spots, earthquakes, magnetic dis- 
turbances, cyclones, rain-falls, and hail storms, 
in verification of his cycle, and demonstrates 
that Jupiter is the cause of the atmospheric, 
telluric, and solar perturbations that occur 
once and in a modified form twice in every 
one of his orbital revolutions, and that the 
maximum disturbance upon the earth must 
occur at or near Jupiter's equinox, and that 
the energy of the equinox of any planet is 
intensified when that of another occurs at or 
about the same time. Fixes 11,86 years as 
the length of the Jupiter year, and names it 
the Jovial Cycle, and assumes that on the 
following years in this century have occurre<l, 
and will occur, the Jovial Major Equinox : 



1800.58 


1859.88 


1812.44 


1871.74 


1824.30 


1883.60 


1836.16 


1895.46 


1848.02 





THEORY. VlX 

The cycles of 11 years in the price of corn 
and hogs, 27 years in the price of pig-iron, 
and 54 years in general business, can not be 
aocounted for upon any known theory in the 
operations of trade. Therefore we must look 
elsewhere for a cause and solution of the 
problem. 

The fact of the existence of these cycles is 
patent to any close observer, and as to 
whether any hypothesis or theory would be 
of practical utility when not a demonstrated 
and verified truth, is for the reader to deter- 
mine. 

In our 11 year cycles commencing in 1836, 
and running to 1847, '58, and '69, we observe 
that our cycles fall behind the Jovial Cycle. 
We have not the daily or monthly prices for 
corn and hogs, so as to ascertain if there are 
fractions of a year in our cycles; if there 
should be, they would be found to be small. 
We know there are fractions in the cycles for 
pig-iron extending over four months from 
1837 to 1845, and in other cycles from one to 
two months, but not sufficient fractions in 
any cycle within the past forty years, and 
will not be before 1891, to change the number 
of years in any high priced year cycle of 
either hogs or pig-iron. 



122 benner's prophecies. 

The meteorological cycle, as verified by 
Prof. Tice, seems to be well demonstrated by 
his array of historical facts. 

His forecasts of the weather during the 
year 1875 was verified with surprising accur- 
acy, and we have no doubt that his theory in 
regard to sun-spots, earthquakes, auroras, and 
magnetic disturbances is well confirmed. 
However, it is to be considered that other ele- 
ments and influences may operate to cause 
abundance or scarcity in stock and grain 
crops. 

Facts are the data of all just reasoning, and 
the primary elements of all real knowledge. 
The fact seems to be philosophically certain 
that all the planets which compose our solar 
system are essential to that system : the sun 
to the planets, the planets to the sun, and all 
to each other; and when certain combina- 
tions are ascertained which produce one legi 
timate invariable manifestation from an an- 
alysis of the operations of the combined solar 
system, then we may be enabled to discover 
the cause producing our price cycles, and the 
length of their duration. 

It is evident from our showing of the upa 
and downs in prices, and the high and low 
priced years, that these cycles repeat them 



THEORY. 123 

selves in definite length; and without deter- 
mining a fixed and exciting cause for theii 
existence, or attempting to verify theories of 
which we are distrustful, we will risk our 
reputation as a prophet, and our chances for 
success in business upon our 11 year cj^cle in 
corn and hogs; in our 27 year cycle in pig- 
iron, and in our 54 year cycle in general 
trade, upon which we have operated with suc- 
cess in the past. 

Modern facilities have brought the ends of 
the earth together, and nearly obliterated the 
cycles in famine and bread riots, but in turn 
have developed well defined cycles in prices. 
By the aid of steam and electricity, a de- 
ficiency in one part of the earth is soon sup- 
plied by the surplus of another; therefore, 
natural productions are more equalized over 
the country; and as the average aggregate 
yearly amount is regulated by productive and 
unproductive seasons, prices follow nature 
more closely than formerly, and their cycles 
must correspond very closely with meteoro- 
logical cycles. 

The influence of the sun-spot period upon 
production and prices, has formed the subject 
of numerous discussions during the present 
century; and it is a singular fact that scien- 



124 benner's prophecies. 

tists have made the discovery that large and 
Bniall crops have occurred at intervals approx- 
imating to eleven years, the average length of 
the sun-spot period. It may be a meteorologi- 
cal fact that Jupiter is the ruling element in 
our price cycles of natural productions ; while 
also it may be suggested that Saturn exerts an 
influence regulating the cycles in manufac- 
ture and trade. 

Herschel and Leverrier, away out in the 
regions of immensit}^, beyond the range of 
human eyesight, may send forth an electric 
influence affecting Jupiter, Saturn, and, in 
turn, the Earth. Heathen mythology claimed 
that Saturn was the deity who presided over 
time, as he was the most distant planet from 
the earth of any that are visible to the naked 
eye, and requiring twenty-nine years to make 
a revolution around the sun. Saturn appears 
to have been king of Crete, in whose time iron 
was said to have been discovered on Mount 
Ida, owing to a fire by lightning producing a 
conflagration in the woods. Vulcan wrought 
the new iron mines and made iron imple- 
ments. Ancient astrology claimed to foretell 
future events by the motion of the stars, and 
in this they were not far wrong, although they 
were not regulated in their predictions by 



THEORY. 125 

cycles in motioiij but by certain changes in 
the stars at certain times, aided by the celestial 
globe, and approaches, recessions, and aspects 
of the planets. Ancient astrology is no^V being 
superceded by modern science. All great 
events and convulsions in nature are now 
being explained and accounted for upon fixed 
physical causes. 

The deluge of Moses, if we look for a physi- 
cal cause, can be found in the precession of 
the equinoxes. The perihelion having a 
period of over 25,000 years, crossed the equator 
when the translation of the ocean from the 
northern to the southern hemisphere, would 
necessarily produce wrecks of countries, great 
physical changes, and floods upon the earth. 
For all history concurs in describing a deluge, 
and science demands its recurrence about 
every 12,000 years. 

CONCLUSION. 

In view of the immensity of the interests 
involved, and the magnitude of the gains or 
losses incurred in the advance and decline of 
each price and panic cycle, and the conse 
quenres of the effects upon all business and 
trade, well might we be surprised and aston- 



126 benner's prophecies. 

ished at the opportunities afforded for accumu- 
lation and the chances for disaster, that bj 
rule of cycles we are compelled to predict. 

Persons who undertake to search for coal 
outside of the coal fields, to mine for ore out- 
side of the iron region, or prospect for any 
mineral by which through ignorance of the 
teachings of geology, they would be constantly 
led to squander their means for that which 
they can not find — could be compared to a 
person who undertakes to make money during 
the decline of prices. Failures in business are 
caused principally by our ignorance of when 
the ups and downs in prices are to take place. 
It has been stated that in the city of Boston, 
in a series of forty years after the year 1800. 
that only five in one hundred men remained 
in business; they had all in that time failed 
or died destitute of property. It has been 
stated and ascertained that not more than one 
per cent of the best class of merchants escape 
from failing in Philadelphia, and that not 
more than two per cent of the merchants of 
New York ultimately retire on an independ- 
ence during periods of twenty-five and thirty 
years. In Cincinnati, out of a list of some 
four hundred of the principal business men 
who were in trade in that city at a certain 



CONCLUSION. 127 

period, there were only five in business at the 
end of twenty years from that date. Such is 
mercantile success, and we see the same re* 
peated in all the leading and different branch 
es of trade. 

As compiled by Duni|, Barlow & Co., of New 
York City, for the year 1873, throughout the 
country there were 5,183 failures of business 
men, with liabilities aggregating to $228,499- 
000 ; for the year 1874 there were 5,830 failures, 
with liabilities of $155,239,900; and the indi- 
cations of reports for 1875, are that the failures 
will number as many as in the former years. 
The greater proportion of these failures were 
brought about by losses sustained in the 
shrinkage of values, and decline of prices in 
each price and panic cycle. The people seem 
ignorant of the terrible teachings of history, 
and few are prepared to take advantage of 
these turns in trade ; and the great majority, 
through ignorance of the time when the ups 
and down in prices are to take place, are 
caught with incomplete enterprises upon 
their hands. 

It is noticed that the great majority of the 
business men of broken down fortunes, have 
become so not by accident, but by dealing too 
largely when prices were on the decline. In 



J28 benner's prophecies. 

the general declines of business after the 
panics of 1819, '37, '57, and '73, the loss to the 
nation through non-employment of labor and 
in various ways, is estimated to aggregate a 
eufl&cient sum in each of these reactions to 
pay our naMonal debt. George Peabody laid 
the foundation of his fortune by buying Amer- 
ican securities in one of our commercial 
depressions, the price which, taken at the 
advance, led him on to competence. 

Reader, if you are young, life is short. You 
can not afford to make any mistakes, or miss 
any opportunities. You must take the tide 
at the advance. You can not wait a life time 
for the results of your experience; you must 
act upon what others know, or j^our life will 
be spent to little use and without much accu- 
mulation of property. The cycles of pros- 
perity and adversity alternate inside of every 
ten years ; but few of these prosperous decades 
are yours in an active business life ; therefore 
do not waste your strength, or impair your 
energies on these periodic declines, as fore 
shadowed in the future by the bright written 
pages of past history. 

Barnum has well said, in his celebrated 
lecture on the art of money getting, " You can 
not accumulate a fortune by taking the road 



CONCLUSION. 129 

that leads to poverty." The whole history of 
trade and commerce is full with the records of 
disaster, which has been brought about by mis 
takes of men who could not read the letters 
upon the sign posts; while on the other hand 
our libraries are crowded with the chronology 
of man's success in business and trade, by 
taking the price and times at the advance, 
which leads on to fortune. 

Within the present century the increase of 
knowledge, improvements in machinery, and 
the discoveries in the arts and sciences, have 
advanced with a speed unparalleled in the 
annals of history. New light in various de- 
partments of human activity is now rapidly 
and continually breaking in upon the Avorld. 
The invention of the steamboat, railroad, and 
telegraph, have imparted astonishing lessons 
to mankind. Each discovery of the laws of 
nature unfolds to the mind of man, new and 
exalting evidences of the wisdom of the Crea- 
tor. Astronomers who attempt to explore the 
immensity of the starry regions; to discover 
unseen and unknown worlds, and to find out 
the ways of God in the wonders of the heavens, 
are not in this enlightened age denounced as 
false philosophers and charged with an im- 
pious invasion of the domain of God. Each 
9 



130 benner's prophecies. 

rising science has fought and struggled with 
superstition and ignorance ; and in all ages no 
effort lias been spared to blast them in the bud 
of their being, or crush them in the cradle of 
theii infancy. 

It has only been a short time before the 
present century, that if any one had predicted 
the crossing of the ocean in a vessel driven by 
steam, or of conveying news by electric agency 
around the earth, over the land and under the 
water in advance of time, or of daguerreotyp- 
ing the human face on a metallic plate by the 
light of the sun, and then chemically fixing 
it there; or of forecasting the future of the 
weather ; production and prices by the rule of 
cycles as regulated by providence ; such per- 
sons would have been considered visionary, 
their predictions regarded as contemptibly 
absurd; their authors the most disingenious 
of men, and their theories and systems treated 
with persecution and ridicule. 

The day is past for men to be forced to drink 
the juice of the hemlock for having peculiar 
notions of Deity, and sent in chains to the 
gallows, or imprisoned in gloomy dungeons 
for announcing scientific discoveries. Galileo 
was condemned by the inquisition of Rome foi 
teachinjBj the doctrine of the earth's revoJu- 



CONCLUSTO??. ' 131 

dons. Galileo was right, and the world 
moves. 

Science has many things to achieve in agri- 
culture, manufacture, mining, and commerce. 
The science of price cycles is yet in the cradle 
of its infancy, but waiting its time to mature 
full development, to unfold its principles, and 
declare its oracles to all mankind, and to 
demonstrate that the causes and the laws of 
nature in production are not past finding out ; 
and that man in his onward path of progress, 
with the aid of electric science, will ulti- 
mately grasp the future, and make plain all 
the ways of God; which, when accomplished 
in this world, will be the acme of human 
knowledge, the consummation of human per- 
fection, and the end of human destiny. 



ADDENDA, 1884. 



To comply with an urgent demand from 
many business men for a nev/ edition of these 
Prophecies, with tables brought down to date, 
tlie author has consented to make some addi- 
tions, and add a chapter on Eailroad Stocks. 
The old edition is left as it was originally pub- 
lished in 1876. 

While it has been an accepted saying, that 
history repeats itself, it has never been at- 
tempted heretofore to show how, and say when, 
it was systematically done, so as to extend it 
into the future — until the writer, in 1876, intro- 
duced to the public this little book, showing, by 
cycles made in the ups and downs in prices and 
in general business, how and when the times 
would repeat themselves in the future, which by 
the te.^t of the past eight years, is pronounced, 
by intelligent and thinking business men, to be 
one of the most remarkable commercial discov- 
eries of this country. 

This book has been read by manv able men 
and they are puzzled at the results, as showing 
powerfully what they did not believe existed, 



ADDENDA, 1884. 133 

and so lit variance with received opinions, they 
seem willing, from choice, to disbelieve it, if it 
were possible, but seeing the predictions and re- 
petitions justified by events, are disposed to give 
the author great glory. 

The discovery of this so-called law of repeti- 
tion, pertaining to business life, one would say 
can not be, for how the times change from war 
and other causes. The answer is: that the law 
has acted for fifty years, or as long as we have 
had any reliable statistics to test it; and this ac- 
tion has been going on through the introduction 
of railroads, steamships, the ckctric telegraph 
and cable, the panics of 1837, 1857 and 1873; 
also, through the Mexican war and our own 
civil war, and all else that has occurred to op- 
pose such regularity. And what more can a 
reasonable person ask to prevent its action? 
And yet it rides triumphant over all, and asserts 
itself up to the present time in a wonderful 
manner. 

In the commodity of Iron, the author takes 
the best tables tliis country affords, and with 
the formation of which he has nothing to do, 
viz.: those compiled by the American Iron and 
Steel Association of Philadelphia, and from 
these prices, for the past fifty years, are shown 
the highest and lowest years, which are system- 



134 benner's prophecies. 

atically apart, forming cycles which repeat 
themselves at certain fixed periods. These are 
facts, and if facts, they are true, whether they 
are believed or not. 

Iron is the strongest element of general busi- 
ness; and when the price of iron is advancing 
and high, general business is always prosperous, 
and labor finds steady and remunerative em- 
ployment. On the contrary, when iron is de- 
declining and low, general business languishes 
and labor sufi'era its worst. This fact has been 
invariably the case during the whole history of 
the United States; and it is the great desider- 
atum of the age to discover the operation of a 
repetition in this commodity, and place it iiitel- 
ligently before the public, so that business 
men can shape their affairs in accordance 
with it. 

The uncertainty heretofore of all manufac- 
turing business, for a want of the knowledge of 
how long good trade or poor trade would con- 
tinue, of which it seems our sharpest and most 
exjDerienced men have made serious and fatal 
mistakes, will now, by this knowledge of repe- 
tition, be enabled to forecast the run of future 
business, and give them more confidence by 
knowing when to contract or expand their op- 
erations. 



^ PROPHECIES VERIFIED. 135 

Many a chance for a fortune is lost througli 
over caution ; and many a fortune is lost 
through being over sanguine, without a sure 
guide gained by the known laws of the opera- 
tions of the past. The height and culmination 
of a speculative era is the best time for sinking 
capital beyond the hoj^e of recovery, and com- 
mercial depression affords the best opportunity 
for profitable investment, as these pages show 
under the head of Iron and Panic. 

PEOPIIECIES YERIFIED. 

The autbor predicted, in 1875, that there 
would be a continuation of the depression m 
iron and general business to extend through 
1876 and 1877 — which prophecies were fulfilled. 

The further prediction then, was that prices 
would commence to advance in 1878 — which 
they did. The advance in iron commenced in 
the latter part of 1878, while railroad stocks 
had reached their lowest limit of decline in 
1877. These years— 1877 and 1878— were the 
end of the great commercial depression foreseen 
and predicted by the writer. 

The remarkable j)art of this prediction was in 
forecasting a turn in business affairs, and higher 
prices to follow, in si^ite of resumption of spe- 



136 benner's prophecies. 

cie payments. The general opinion at that 
time, was that resumption meant contraction 
and lower prices* 

During 1879 and 1880, the times improved 
and prices advanced, just as predicted. All 
trades and industries were active through these 
years. Iron reached its highest price in 1880, 
and stocks in 1881. 

The prediction also was that after 1881 prices 
would decline and the times grow worse, which 
prediction has been verified down to this date. 

The two important points, one of depression 
in 1877, and the commencement of better times 
in 1878, and to follow, and the other of great 
business activity and culmination in 1881, and 
the commencement of dull and poor trade, and 
to follow after that year, have been substantially 
verified. 

On page 49, of this book, there is said, " that 
the years 1882, '83, '84, '85, '86, '87 and '88, will 
be years of decline in the price of j^ig-ii'on, and 
years of depression in this business." Now, let 
us see what the secretary of the Iron and Steel 
Association says in his report made in 1883 : 
"In our last annual report, in June, 1882, the 
fact was noted, that the extraordinary activity 
in our iron and steel industries, which had com- 
menced in 1879, had culminated early in 1882, 



PROPHECIES VERIFIED. 137 

when the wants of consumers became less ur- 
gent and prices generally began to decline. 
This reaction was not sudden nor violent, but 
was, indeed, so gradual and tranquil that it not 
only, for some time, excited no apprehension of 
impending stringency, but was actually imper- 
ceptible to many manufacturers whose books 
still continued to receive liberal orders at satis- 
factory prices. After the resumption of activity 
in the rolling mills, the price of rolled iron and 
pig-iron declined until the close of the year, 
and in November and December the market for 
these products was greatly depressed. Steel 
rails, which were the first of all iron and steel 
products to weaken in price — quotations having 
slightly receded as early as December, 1881 — 
steadily declined in price throughout the whole 
year, the sharpest decline occurring in JSTovem- 
ber and December, when the demand for futute 
delivery almost came to an end. At the begin- 
ning of December, 1881, the average price of 
steel rails, at the mills, was $60 a ton ; but in 
December, 1882, the average price was only $39. 
In all the fluctuations of prices of iron and steel 
that have taken place in this country, we know 
of none so sweeping as this decline in the price 
of steel rails, if we except the fluctuations of 
1879 and 1880, and many of these wore entirely 



138 benner's prophecies. 

speculative. The causes which contributed to 
the serious, but in no sense disastrous, reaction 
in our iron and sieel industries, in 1882, were 
many and various." 

The lowest limit for pig-iron being touched a 
few months later, and the highest daily price 
earlier than the specified limitations and culmi- 
nations in predictions made for the years 1877 
and 1881, do not affoct the verification of the 
repetitions, as there were very important causes 
why these limits were prolonged and hastened 
a few months. In whatever can not be as ex- 
act as two and two are four, is no reason why 
'tis false and should be abandoned. 

Let the thinking mind of any fur-seeing busi- 
ness man call into action all his mental energies 
— gird himself to the herculean task; let him 
put forth his proudest thought, grasp the sub- 
ject with a giant arm, and endeavor to forecast 
the future ups and downs of iron and general 
business in this country for the next ten years, 
without the help of cycles and this law of repe- 
tition, as the author has set forth in these 
pages, and see how wide he will miss the mark. 

A prominent grain merchant, when ques- 
tions in regard to the probable effect of a Euro- 
pean war upon the market for American bread- 
stuffs, replied that definite predictions could bo 



SIGNS OF THE TIMES. 139 

obtained only from merchants who had been 
but a short time in the business ; the older he 
grew the more ignorant he became concerning 
the future. 

SIGNS OF THE TIMES. 

The price of iron has steadily fallen through 
the year 1883. 

That the times are dull, can not be disputed. 
We have now the anamoly of an easy money 
market and hard times. From month to 
month, since 1881, commodities have fallen in 
price, wages have been cut down, manufiictories 
closed, workmen thrown out of employment, 
and at the present time the cities fairly swarm 
with a grand army of the unemployed. There 
has not been for years a greater scarcity of 
trade bills, so little demand for the deposits that 
banks and discount houses hold. Unsound 
firms and mismanaged corporations are failing 
daily, a series of commercial failures larger 
than ever in this country. A merchant con- 
templating an opening up of a new department 
in trade, postpones it ; a manufacturer needing 
new machinery, puts off the purchase of it; a 
man intending to build a new house, waits. All 
these indicate poor trade and great prostration 



140 benner's prophecies. 

in business. And this stato of affairs in this 
country, which we are compelled to describe as 
it actually exists, is likely to continue until we 
have a turn in iron for great activity, which can 
not come until 1888, as pointed out by the repe- 
titions of the past. 

All persons who are interested in pig-iron 
and railroad and other securities, are anxiously 
inquiring into the probabilities of iron declining 
more. With over one-third of the blast furnaces 
in this country standing idle, and the greater 
number of those in blast struggling to pay ex- 
penses, this inquiry is one of great and ex- 
ceeding interest. 

The writer now proceeds to outline the future 
condition of trade, from this time to the close of 
this century. 

1884. 

Presidential year. The absorbing topic. 
What party is going to administer the Govern- 
ment for the next four years to be decided in 
the election this fall, will be a disturbing ele- 
ment in business, and will have the eifect of 
casting its withering shadow before it, clogging 
the wheels of commerce and manufacture; 
hence, dull trade. Iron will continue to droop, 
with lower prices. 



SIGNS OF THE TIMES. 141 

1885. 

This year will show some resumption in the 
business of the country, the election being 
over and out of the way. There will be a little 
higher average for iron for this year, and this 
year only, with railroad stocks higher than in 
1884. 

1886. 

A renewal of depression in the iron and gen- 
ei-al business, and a lower average for iron. 
Free-trade agitation and legislation by Con- 
gress. The low duty tariffs have been shameful 
failures in this country, reducing the Govern- 
ment and people to a deplorable condition. 
The low-tariff era, from 1857 to 1861, was one 
of the darkest periods ever seen by the labor- 
ing people of America. Stocks lower. 

1887. 

Continuation of the same dull trade of 1886, 
with no hope for iron this year. 

1888. 

Presidential jesiv; all business prostrated 

and exhausted. A general complaint of hard 

times all over the country. Banks failing and 

stocks to their lowest point. Iron and stocke 



142 benner's prophecies. 

will touch their lowest limit in this decline, and 
turn upward in this year. 

1889. 
A great speculative era opening up. Hurrah, 
for business! Iron advances. Now for a 
Boom. 

1890. 

G-reat activity in general business. Iron and 
stocks advancing and bounding upward, from 
the beginning to the ending of this year. A rep- 
etition of the year 1879. 

1891. 

This era of speculation and great prosperit}^ 
comes to a close this year with a Panic. A 
commercial revulsion and general reaction in 
all business after this year, and down goes trade 
for a series of* years. 

1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897. 
Dull years and poor trade. 

1898, 1899. 
Good trade and an active business in all in- 
dustries, winding up this 19th century in the 
height of a speculative era. 



SIGNS OF THE TIMES. 143 

It will be noticed that there are to be only 
tvvo period of j^ears, from this time until 1900^ 
when we will have great activity in general 
business, and these are given below in the fu- 
tui'e. 

The former prominent active business periods 
of advances in iron were from 

1834 to 1837. 
1843 to 1845. 
1850 to 1854. 
1861 to 1864. 
1870 to 1872. 
1878 to 1880. 

FUTURE. 

1888 to 1891. 
1897 to 1899. 

It seems from the above that the advance and 
activity in iron is but a few months at a time 
while the periods of decline are numbered by 
years and of long duration. However, it 
should not be a subject of too much complaint 
when we think of the locust — only a week's 
song in every seventeen years. 



144 



benner's prophecies. 



AVERAGE YEAELY PHICES FOR PIG- 
IRON. 



YEARS. 


PRICE. 


TOXS 


YEARS. 


PRICE. 


TOXS. 


1844 


25| 




1863 


35i 


947.604 


1845 


29i 




1864 


59i 


1,135.996 


1846 


27| 




1865 


46i 


931 582 


1847 


30i 




1866 


46| 


1,350.343 


1848 


26| 




1867 


44i 


1,461,626 


1849 


903 




1868 


39i 


1,603,000 


1850 


20| 




1869 


401 


1,916 6n 


1851 


21f 




1870 


33- 


1,865 000 


1852 


22f 




1871 


35^- 


1,911,608 


1853 


36i 




1872 


48| 


2,854,558 


1854 


36| 7 


36/21 


^ 1873 


42| 


2,868 278 


1855 


27| 'i 


^84,17 


S 1874 


301 


2,689,413 


1856 


■ 27i 8 


!83,13 


7 1875 


25.^- 


2,266 581 


1857 


26f 7 


'98,15 


7 1876 


221 


2,093.236 


1858 


221 'J 


05,09 


1 1877 


18| 


2 3 14. 585 


1859 


23f 5 


40,62 


7 1878 


in 


2,577,361 


1860 


22f i 


)19,77 


D 1879 


211 


3,070 875 


1861 


20i 7 


31,54- 


t 1880 


281 


4,295,414 


1862 


23| 7 


87,66. 


2 1881 


251 


4,641,564 








1882 


25| 


5,178,122 



FAILURES. 

As compiled by R. G. Dun & Co., of New 
York City, for the year 1883, there were over 
nine thousand traders failed in business; and, 
with the exception of the year 1878, there were 
more failures in number in 1883 than in any 
year in the history of this country. 



FAILURES. 145 

To quote from their circular of January, 1884 : 
^^ Under such circumstancess the inquiry is a 
most anxious one, as to what is the actual busi- 
ness outlook for the opening year. If, with all 
that has happened in the past of a favorable 
character, disasters of such magnitude have 
occured, what is to be expected with the loss of 
confidence which these calamities have caused, 
with the restricted credit accomodation, lessened 
business, and the steady depreciation in values, 
which seem to be the daily experience." 

Kow, the writer undertakes to state, that the ca- 
pacity of this country to overproduce is out of all 
proportion to the power and ability to consume. 

This fact was very plainly exemplified in the 
iron business during 1879. Just so soon as the 
people saw that iron had started upward, every 
old furnace trap in this country, that had been 
idle for years, was repaired and put to work, 
and run to its full capacity. All the ore, coal 
and timber lands were optioned, and every body 
seemed to be going into the iron business; and, 
in the spring of 1880, it Avas plainly to be seen, 
that there was to be an enormous production of 
pig-iron. 

The fact of the business was, that there were 
a million of tons more iron made in 1880 than 
in 1879, and the consequence was, that the up- 



146 benner's prophecies. 

ward march in the price had to halt in that year 
— and this very over production has ruined the 
iron trade, and brought about unprofitable gen- 
eral business to this day. 

Take any trade or industry in this country, 
where the people are free to engage in it, and 
not hampered by any restrictive laws, and the 
moment that prices rise in any product or com- 
modity, it seems that every body — like a flock 
of sheep — goes in that direction, and we soon 
have an over production, and down goes the 
price for a number of j^ears. What can be said 
of any one production in this respect can be 
applied to general business; and no matter if 
the country in itself is sound, and the ability of 
consumers to absorb and pay for their wants 
and luxuries, large emigration and great 
growth, the startling fact present itself that 
business can and does stagnate and becomes 
very much depressed in these repetitions of the 
long terms of decline in iron. 

Better times can not come for general busi- 
ness, until the price of iron shows that it is in 
demand in the industries of this country. And 
to answer the above inquiry, the record of the 
number of failures is here given, and the ups 
and downs in iron in the past and extended in- 
to the future, showing how Jong these numerous 
failures must continue. 



FAILURES. 



147 



NO. OW in^^ILTJRES. 



1854 




1855 




1856 




1857 


4,932 


1858 


4,225 


1859 


3,913 


1860 


3,676 


1861 


6,993 


1862 


1,652 


1863 


495 


1864 


520 


1865 


530 


1866 


1,505 


1867 


2,780 


1868 


2,608 


1869 


2,799 


1870 


3,546 


1871 


2,915 


1872 


4,069 


1873 


5,183 


1874 


5,830 


1875 


7,740 


1876 


9,092 


1877 


8,872 


1878 


10,478 


1879 


6,658 


1880 


4,735 


1881 


5,582 


1882 


6,738 


1883 


9,184 


1884 




1885 




1886 




1887 




1888 





Iron high. 




148 benner's prophecies. 

It can be seen, by the foregoing diagram, that 
whenever iron is high there is a less number of 
failures, and as iron declines in price, and is 
low, the failures increase, and reach their great- 
est number when iron is at its lowest point. 

This showing indicates that there will be an 
increased number of failures, over and above 
the number for 1883, before we get a turn in 
business affiairs, as we have not reached the 
lowest limit for iron in this decline. 

EAILEOAD STOCKS. 

The magnitude of the railroad interest of this 
country, has given it the position of the great 
leading element for speculation and invest- 
ment. 

This business has grown so extensively in the 
United States, in the past twenty years, that it 
excites admiration and wonder. 

In 1860 there were only 30,635 miles of fin- 
ished road, and about 250 members of the New 
York Stock Exchange. In this year there is 
over 120,000 miles of road, with over 1,000 mem- 
bers of the New York Exchange. 

This great activity in railroad building and 
stock operations have been the result of the 
greenback era. With the rapid settlement of the 



RAILROAD STOCKS. 149 

Western States under land grants, homestead 
laws and agricultural machinery began to in- 
crease immensely, since the war, the East and 
West railroad traffic— there having been built 
within the last three years more miles of rail- 
road than was built altogether before the war. 
The railroad system being now almost practi- 
cally completed east of the Mississippi river, 
we can reasonably expect to see the excitement, 
pertaining to so many new projected lines pass 
away, and the price for railroad stocks to take 
their legitmate place in the market, along with 
iron, and rise and fall in their value, as iron goes 
up and down, in the markets of our country. 

The time is past now for any great excite- 
ment in the activity and advance in stocks, and, 
for a few years following, we may look for con- 
tinued lower prices, with the exceptions of some 
upheavals that may be engineered and pro- 
duced by combinations and manipulations. 

The speculator who may attempt to bull the 
stock market, or the investor who may confide 
his means in these securities, thinking the turn 
has come for another boom in the stock market, 
will find, in the long run, that the market will 
gradually and surely go away from him — liko 
the sand from under the feet of the fisherman, 
while standing in a stream of running water. 



150 benner's prophecies. 

There is a saying in Wall Street that there is 
one certain way to make money in stocks : 
"Buy when they are cheap, and sell when the}^ 
are dear." This is the simplest kind of a rule, 
and it is a perpetual wonder that so many fail 
in getting the hang of it. 

In Wall Street, it is the operator who forms a 
correct theory as to the course of prices who 
makes the most money in the long run — mere 
traders are sure to get swamped. It is those 
who see furthest ahead, and have the courage 
to act upon their convictions, that secure the 
great prizes in the stock market. 

In the year 1860, some of the leading stocks 
at that time were very low— Erie, 8 ; New York 
and Harlem, 8; Michigan Southern, 5; Cleve- 
land and Pittsburgh, 5. 

In 1877, some low prices again — Erie, 5; 
Hannibal & St, Joe, 7; Ohio and Mississippi, 
21; Wabash,! 

There were two periods, one before the war 
and the other afterward, when stocks were very 
low, and those were the times to make invest- 
ments. The same opportunity for investors to 
catch stocks so low as in these two years will not, 
in opinion of the author, come around again until 
after the next panic, as described in this book; 
as these two low periods were the effects of the 



RAILROAD STOCKS. 151 

revulsions in business caused by the panics of 
1857 and 1873. 

In the declines of 1865, 1867, and 1870, we 
did not have as low prices as after the panic of 
1873, when prices for stocks seem to almost 
vanish out of sight. 

In the present decline, from 1881 to 1884, we 
have something similar to the declines into 1867 
and 1870, and some lower points made this year 
than in 1865, 1867 or 1870, and, reasoning from 
what we know, stocks have been low enough in 
this year for this decline so far, and, therefore, 
we should not have lower points until after 
next year, the year 1885 being a steady and 
slightly up year for iron. In the years 1886 
and 1887 there will be lower stocks, running 
into 1888, when the turn comes again for ac- 
tivity in iron stocks and all business. 



152 



RAILROAD STOCKS. 




MILES OF RAILROAD IN V. S. 



153 



MILES OF EAILEOAB IN U. S. 



VEAR. 


MILES IN 
OPERATION. 


ANNUAL 
INCREASE. 


1820 . . 


23 . . 




1831 . . 


95 . . 


72 


1832 . . 


229 . . 


134 


1833 . . 


380 . . 


151 


1834 . . 


633 . . 


253 


1835 . . 


1,098 . . 


465 


1836 . . 


1,273 . . 


175 


1837 . . 


1,497 . . 


224 


1838 . . 


1,913 . . 


416 


1839 . . 


2,302 . . 


389 


1840 . . 


2,818 . . 


516 


1841 . . 


3,535 . . 


717 


1842 . . 


4,026 . . 


491 


1843 . . 


4,185 . . . 


159 


1844 . . 


4,377 . . . 


192 


1845 . . 


4,633 . . 


256 


1846 . . . 


4,930 . . 


297 


1847 . . 


5,598 . . 


668 


1848 . . 


5,996 . . . 


398 


1849 . . . 


7,365 . . . 


1,369 


1850 . . . 


9,021 . . 


1,656 


1851 . . . 


10,982 . . 


1,961 


1852 . . . 


12,908 . . 


1,S26 


1853 . . . 


15,360 . . 


2,452 


1854 . . . 


16,720 . . 


1,360 


1855 . . . 


18,374 . . 


1,654 


1856 . . . 


22,016 . . . 


3.647 


1857 . . . 


24,503 . . 


2,647 


1858 . . . 


26,968 . . 


2,465 



154 



BENNER S PROPHECIES. 



YEAR. 


MILES TN 
OPERATION. 


ANNUAL 
INCREASE. 


1859 . . 


28,789 . . 


1,821 


1860 . . 


30,635 . . 


1,846 


1861 . . 


31,286 . . 


651 


1862 . . 


32,120 . . 


834 


1863 . . 


33,170 . . 


1,050 


1864 . . 


33,908 . . 


738 


1865 . . 


.. 35,085 . . 


1,177 


1866 . . 


36,801 . . 


1,742 


1867 . . 


39,250 . . 


2,449 


1868 . . 


42,229 . . 


2,979 


1869 . . 


46,844 . . . 


4,615 


1870 . . 


52,914 . . 


6,070 


1871 . . 


60,283 . . . 


7,379 


1872 . . 


66,171 . . 


5,878 


1873 . . . 


70,278 . . 


4,107 


1874 . . . 


72,383 . . . 


2.105 


1875 . . 


74,096 . . . 


1,712 


1876 . . 


76,808 . . . 


2,712 


1877 . . 


79,089 . . . 


2,281 


1878 . . 


81,776 . . . 


2,687 


1879 . . 


86,497 . . . 


4,721 


1880 . . 


91,944 . . . 


7,174 


1881 . . 


. 101,733 . . . 


9,789 


1882 . . . 


113,329 . . . 


11,591 



WINTER PACKING OF HOGS. 



155 



WINTER PACKmG OF HOGS-NET AND 
GEOSS COST. 



SEASON. 

1842-43 

1843-44 

1844-45 

1845-46 

1846-47 

1847-48 

1848-49 

1849-50 

1850-51 

1851-52 

1852-53 

1853-54 

1854-55 

1855-56 

1856-57 

1857-58 

1858-59 

1859-60 

1860-61 

1861-62 

1862-63 

1863-64 

1864-65 

1865-66 

1866-67 

1867-68 

1868-69 

1869-70 



NO. PACKED. 

675,000 
1,245,000 
790,000 
900,000 
800,000 
1,710,000 
1,560,000 
1,652,220 
1,332,867 
1,182,846 
2,201,110 
2,534,770 
2,124,404 
2,489,502 
1,818,468 
2,210,778 
2,465,552 
2,350,822 
2,155,702 
2,893,666 
4,069,520 
3,261,105 
2,442,779 
1,785,955 
2,490,791 
2,781,084 
2,499,873 
2,635,312 



COST. 
NET. 



3 30 

4 85 
3 55 

3 25 

4 70 

2 66 

3 75 

4 45 
6 01 
4 19 



COST. 
GEOSS 



$ 2 65 
3 90 

2 85 



21 
75 
94 

86 
6 28 
5 91 



67 
03 
20 



6 70 
14 32 
11 67 



22 
95 



10 22 

11 53 



2 
3 
2 
3 
3 
4 
3 



60 
75 
13 
00 
56 
81 
35 



3 37 



4 60 

4 75 
3 89 

5 02 



73 

57 
42 
36 
36 



11 46 
9 34 

5 78 

6 36 

8 18 

9 22 



156 benner's prophecies. 



SEASON. 


NO. PACKED. 


COST. 


COST. 






NET. 


GROSS. 


1870-71 


3,695,251 


6 58 


5 26 


1871-72 


4,831,558 


5 15 


4 12 


1872-73 


5,410,314 


4 66 


3 73 


1873-74 


5,466,200 


5 43 


4 34 


1874-75 


5,566,226 


8 33 


6 60 


1875-76 


4,880,135 


8 82 


7 05 


1876-77 


5,101,308 


7 18 


5 74 


1877-78 


6,505,446 


4 99 ' 


3 99 


1878-79 


7,480,648 


3 56 


2 85 


1879-80 


6,950,451 


5 22 


4 18 


1880-81 


6,919,456 


5 80 


4 64 


1881-82 


5,747,760 


7 58 


6 06 


1882-83 


6,132,212 


7 85 


6 28 



CORN. 



157 



YEAR. 
1840 

1850 
1860 

1862 
1863 
1864 
1865 
1866 
1867 
1868 
1869 
1870 
1871 
1872 
1873 
1874 
1875 
1876 
1877 
1878 
1879 
1880 
1881 
1882 
1883 



COEN. 

PRODUCTION. 

377,000,000 

592,000,000 

838,000,000 

533,387,230 

397,839,212 

530,451,403 

704,427,853 

867,946,295 

768,420,000 

906,527,000 

874,320,000 

1,094,255,000 

991,898,000 

1,092,719,000 

932,274,000 

850,148,500 

1,321,069,000 

1,283,827,500 

1,342,558,000 

1,388,218,750 

1,547,901,790 

1,717,434,543 

1,194,916,000 

1,617,025,100 

1,500,000,000 



AVERAGE 
VALUE PER BU. 



34 

69 

99 

46 

68 

80 

62 

75 

54 

48 

39 

48 

64 

42 

37 

35 

31 

37 

39 

63 

48 



158 benner's prophecies. 



THE WEATHER 

The author does not claim to be a weather 
prophet, as the weather seems to be one of the 
most fickle of all things under the sun. However, 
a chart is heregiveato show when the scorching 
heats and droughts, the great floods and pro- 
longed cold winters, have, appeared at certain 
periods in this country, that seem to repeat the 
order of their return in about every eight years. 
This order is extended into the future, showing 
the probabilities of the recurrence of these ex- 
tremes in the seasons, varying the crops, and 
affecting the price of corn and hogs. 

The extremes of rain-fall and great floods re- 
cur at regular periods of about eight years in 
the Ohio and Mississippi rivers. 

The periods of drought and extreme low 
water occur regularly at almost equal intervals 
between those of high water. 

The repetition of long, cold and stormy win- 
ters coincide nearly with those of drought in 
recurrence and duration. 



THE WEATHER. 159 



WEATHER CHART. 





YEARS 


YEARS 




WET. 


DRY. 




1850 




Flood. 


1851 






1852 






1853 


1854 
1855 
1856 
1857 




1858 




Flood. 


1859 
1860 
1861 

1866 


1862 
1863 
1864 
1865 


Flood. 


1867 
1868 
1869 

.1874 


1870 
1871 

1872 
1873 


Flood. 


1875 
1876 
1877 


1878 
1879 
1880 
1881 



Drought — Low Water. 
Drought — Low Water. 



Drought— Low Water. 
Drought— Low Water. 



Drought — Low Water. 
Drought — Low Water. 



Drought — Low Water. 
Drought — Low Water. 



160 benner's prophecies. 

1882 

Flood. 1883 

1884 

1885 

1886 

1887 Drought— Low Water. 

1888 Drought— Low Water. 
1889 

1890 

Flood. 1891 

1892 

1893 

The weather chart is designed to show, first, 
on the right, the group of four years of extreme 
heat and extreme cold; and second, on the left, 
four years of heavy rain-falls and great floods. 

The author does not claim that all the years 
in the groups on the right of the chart will be 
years of drought and heat and cold winters ; 
neither will all those years on the left be years 
of excessive rain-fall. 

It is only asserted that there will be two of 
these years on the right of extreme heat and 
cold winters, and on the left at least one regu- 
larly returning year, in which there will be a 
great flood, as pointed out on the chart. 

On the right, in the first group of four years, 
there were extensive droughts in 1855 and 1856 ; 
and the winters of 1855-56 and 1856-57 were 
extremely cold. 

In the second group, there were extensive 



THE WEATHER. 161 

droughts in 1863 and 1864, and the winters of 
1863-64 and 1864-65 were extremely cold. 

In the third group there were extensive 
droughts in 1871 and 1872; and the winters of 
1871-72 and 1872-73 were extremely cold. 

In the fourth group there were extensive 
droughts in 1879 and 1881, and the winters of 
1878-9 and 1880-81 were extremely cold. 

On the left, in the first group of four years, 
there was a great flood in 1851. 

In the second group there was a great flood 
in 1859. In the third group there was a great 
flood in 1867. 

In the fourth group there was a great flood in 
1875. In the fifth group there was a great flood 
in 1883. 

From these records of the past thirty years, 
without going back to hunt down far-fetched 
data, the conclusions and probabilities are, that 
there will not be any very great floods in our 
rivers from this time till after 1889, with the ex- 
ception of the year 1886 (when heretofore there 
has been high waters the first year of these 
groups of dry years), and, after passing the 
Spring of 1886, the river population can be 
assured of no extraordinary floods of high 
water till 1890 and 1891. 

Also, that there will not be any general 



162 benner's prophecies. 

droughts extending all over this country, with 
extreme heat, till after 1886 ; arid that there 
will not beany excessive, prolonged cold winters 
until 1887. 

For the next two years, average seasons of 
rain -fall, gradually decreasing till 1887 and 
1888, when in these years there will be general 
droughts and low water in the rivers. 

The winters of 1887-88 and 1888-89, will be 
extreme prolonged cold winters, with storms of 
snow. 

After 1888, the rain-fall will gradually in- 
crease till 1891, when there will be a great 
flood in the Ohio and Mississippi rivers. 

The year 1889 will be grasshopper year for 
the States and Territories West of the Missis- 
sippi river. 

STAGES OF the OHIO RIVER AT CINCINNATI, 
OHIO. 

[From the Report of the Chamber of Commerce.] 



YEAR. 


HIGHEST. 


LOWEST. 


AVERAGE. 




Ft. In. 


Ft. In. 


Ft. In. 


1832 


64. 3 






1847 


63. 7 


-^ 




1858 


43.10 


2. 5 


12.10 


1859 


55. 5 


3. 3 


17. 7 


1860 


49. 2 


5. 4 


16. 


1861 


49. 5 


5. 1 


19. 1 


1862 


57. 4 


2. 4 


17. 5 


1863 


42. 9 


2. 6 


. 15. 


1864 


45. 1 


3. 1 


16. 8 



CORN AND HOGS. 163 



1865 


56. 3 


5. 8 


21.10 


1866 


42. 6 


4. 9^ 


19. 2 


1867 


55. 8 


3. 


47. 


1868 


48. 3 


5. 1 


18. 8 


1869 


48. 9 


5. 4 


19. 8 


1870 


55. 3 


3.10 


17.10 


1871 


40. 6 


2. 8 


11.10 


1872 


41. 9 


3. 


11. 8 


1873 


44. 5 


3. 8 


18. 5 


1874 


47.11 


2. 4 


15. 8 


1875 


55. 4 


4. 3 


18. 9 


1876 


51. 9 


6. 2 


18. 2 


1877 


53. 9 


3. 3 


15. 


1878 


41. 4 


4. 4 


16. 9 


1879 


42. 9 


2. 6 


14. 6 


1880 


53, 2 


3. 9 


17. 


1881 


50. 7 


1.11 


16.11 


1882 


58. 7 


6. 1 


22. 1^- 


1883 


G6. 4 


3. 7 


19. 5^ 


1884 


71. Of 







CORN AND HOGS. 

The price of corn and hogs is moved up and 
down more quickly in their repetitions, by the 
changes in the weather and seasons, than the 
price of some manufactured commodities; for 
instance iron, which takes a longer term of 
years to bring about a large or small supply, as 
the cycle in hogs is only from five to six years, 
while iron a much longer term of years. 

In the repetitions of the ups and downs as 
given in this book, the low price for 1877 was 
continued into 1878, by the dread of resumption 
of specie payments, which resulted in keeping 



164 benner's prophecies. 

prices down into 1878 for liog;^, iron, and other 
commodities. 

The last high year for hogs was fixed for 
1880. JSTow to assign a reas m why the price 
continued to advance, after that year to 1882, 
for corn and hogs. 

It can only be charged to the great drought of 
1881 not coming in the year 1880, its proper 
place. 

The former regularly returning droughts, as 
shown in the weather chart (which is introduced 
liere for this purpose), were in the years 1855- 
56, 1863-64, 1871-72, 1879, skipping 1880, the 
high priced year in the cycle, and giving us 
the drought in 1881, which was an excessive 
dry summer, partially destroying the corn crop. 

This delayed disastrous drought being pre- 
ceded by the extraordinary long continued cold 
of the winter of 1880-81, which had alread}^ 
thinned out a great number of hogs, was the 
direct cause of the high prices being continued 
longer than the cycle denoted. 

The low point for corn and hogs is for this 
winter ; that is, for the j^acking season of 1883- 
84, which no doubt will show a lower average 
price than for the packing season of 1882-'83. 

The further prophecies are for a higher 



CORN AND HOGS. 165 

average after this winter, till the packing sea- 
son of 1886-87. 

Now, to maintain prices about the present 
level, or to have a higher average for the next 
three years, there must 43e some failures in the 
corn or hog crops ; and reasoning from what 
we know, that during the cold January of this 
winter the young hogs have died in considerable 
numbers. And in accordance with that which 
our weather chart indicates, the summer seasons 
for a couple of years, will be wet, with low tem- 
perature, and not favorable for large yields of 
merchantable sound corn. And the further in- 
dications are, that we will not have good corn 
crops until the dry weather of 1887 and 1888, 
when the price of corn and hogs will decline to 
a lower average, as they did during the dry 
weather of 1871 and 1872. 



166 benner's prophecies. 



_ HIGHEST AND LOWEST PRICES IN NEW YORK FOR 
MIDDLING UPLAND COTTON AND THE CROPS I 



YEAB. 


HIGHEST. 


LOWEST. 


BALES. 


1826 


14 


Q 




1827 


12 


•J 




1828 


1^ 


Q 




1829 


11 


V 

Q 




1830 


J. X 

13 


o 




-1 wu v/ 

1831 


11 


7 


987,477 


1832 


12 


7 


1,070,438 


1833 


17 


9 


1,205,394 


1834 


16 


10 


1,254,328 


1835 


20 


15 


1,360,725 


1836 


20 


12 


1,425,575 


1837 


17 


7 


1,804,797 


1838 


12 


9 


1,363,403 


1839 


16 


11 


2,181,749 


1840 


10 


8 


1,639,353 


1841 


11 


9 


1,688,675 


1842 


9 


7 


2,394,203 


1843 


8 


5 


2,108,579 


1844 


9 


5 


2,484,662 


1845 


. 9 


4 


2,170,537 


1846 


9 


6 


1,860,479 


1847 


12 


7 


2,424,113 


1848 


8 


5 


2,808,596 


1849 


11 


6 


2,171,706 



COTTON AND CROPS. 167 



1850 14 

1851 14 

1852 10 

1853 11 

1854 10 

1855 11 

1856 12 

1857 15 

1858 13 

1859 12 

1860 11 

1861 28 

1862 68 

1863 88 

1864 1.90 

1865 1.22 

1866 52 

1867 36 

1868 33 

1869 35 

1870 25 J 

1871 21i 

1872 27| 

1873 2l| 

1874 18| 

1875 . 171 

1876 13f 

1877 13^ 

1878 12j^ 

1879 13| 

1880 . 13| 

1881 13 

1882 13JL. 



11 


2,415,257 


8 


3,090,029 


8 


3,352,882 


10 


8,035,027 


8 


2,932,339 


7 


3,645,345 


9 


3,056,519 


13 


3,238,902 


9 


3,994,481 


11 


4,823,770 


10 


3,826,086 


11 




20 




54 




72 




4 ^ 

33 


2,228,987 


32 


2,059,271 


151 


2,498,895 


16 


2,439,039 


25 


3,154,946 


15 


4,352,317 


14| 


2,974,351 


m 


3,930,508 


13| 


4,170,388 


14f 


3,832,991 


13A 


4,669,288 


io| 


4,485,423 


10|f 


4,773,865 


811 


5,074,155 


9i 


5,761,252 


mi 


6,605,750 


10^ 


5,456,048 



168 



BENNER S PROPHECIES. 





WHEAT. 




YEAR. 


PRODUCTION. 


AVERAGE 




VALUE PER BU 


1862 . . 


177,957,172 . . 


. $ 93 


1863 . . 


173,677,928 . . 


. 1 14 


1864 . . 


160,695,823 . . 


. 1 83 


1865 . . 


148,522,827 . . 


1 46 


1866 . . 


151,999,906 . . 


2 19 


1867 . . 


212,441,400 . . 


. 1 98 


1868 , . 


224,036,600 . . 


1 42 


1869 . . 


260,146,900 . . 


94 


1870 . . 


235,884,700 . . 


1 04 


1871 . . 


230,722,400 . . 


. 1 25 


1872 . . 


249,997,100 . . 


1 24 


1873 . . 


281,254,700 . . 


1 15 


1874 . . 


309,102,700 . . 


94 


1875 . . 


292,136,000 . . 


1 00 


1876 . . 


289,356,500 . . . 


1 03 


1877 . . 


364,194,146 . . 


1 08 


1878 .. .- 


420,122,400 . , 


77 


1879 . . . 


448,756,630 . . 


1 10 


1880 . . 


498,549,868 . . 


95 


1881 . . 


380,280,090 . . 


1 19 


1882 . . 


. 504,185,470 . . . 


88 


1883 . , 


. 420,000,000 





WHEAT. 169 

The total production and average value per 
bushel of the wheat crops since 1862, are here 
given as compiled by the Department of Agri- 
culture. 

The author has never been enabled to form 
any cycles in the price of this cereal that would 
show any repetition of high or low prices that 
could be extended into the future. 

To judge of the surrounding conditions and 
circumstances, such as large visible supplies in 
this country and Europe, and the known large 
quantities in farmers' granaries, and good pros- 
pects for a large yield of the growing winter 
wheat — with a greatly lessened demand from 
foreign countries compared with the past few 
years — and the existing depression in general 
business in this country. These prospective 
supplies and probable demand indicate, that 
this country will have- cheap bread for this year, 
1884. 

February 2bth, 1884. 



FORECAST FOR 1887. 

(published JANUARY 8tH, 1887, IN THE "RECORD AND 
GUIDE.") 

My estimate at the present time of the future 
business situation for 1887 depends upon certain 
conditions and combinations in and out of Con- 
gress. 

It is a well-established fact that the failure of 
Congress last session to act on the tariff and silver 
questions aided powerfully to bring about this 
fall an improvement in the stock market, and in 
some other lines of industry. 

The depression in business during the spring 
and summer of this year was principally caused 
by a dread of what Congress might do under the 
new administration. 

When Congress adjourned last summer, leaving 
the tariff and silver laws unchanged, which was a 
surprise, business men at once saw that they were 
safe until the next Congress convened, and, with 
the assurance at that time of good crops, partial 
confidence returned in general business, especially 
in the railroad industry, as it was apparent that 
the railroads would have plenty to do during the 
fall months. Speculation centered in railroad 

(171) 



172 benner's peophecies. 

stocks, which gave them an active market ; this 
influence also extended to the iron market. 

Yet, nevertheless, while there has been an up- 
ward movement in stocks, iron, and some other 
manufactured commodities, the products of the 
land have not entered into this commotion. The 
farmers do not realize that they are benefited by 
the improvement in the stock market and com- 
mercial situation. What they have to buy is at 
enhanced prices, while that which they have to 
sell remains near the lowest prices for years. 

If the improvement which was manifested in 
business this fall is an indication of continued 
better times it seems to be one-sided. The scales 
were up on one side and down on the other. 

The advance in railroad stocks, and the better 
feeling in business was based with a temporary 
foundation upon what did not happen, which waS 
the failure of Congress to reduce the tariff, to stop 
the coinage of silver, and the failure of the 
crops. 

Business improved because the calamities did 
not happen, and it was well for the country that 
they did not. 

The fear of what Congress may do is again upon 
the minds of the people, as demonstrated when 
Congress convened by a general tumble and col* 



FORECAST FOR 1887. 173 

lapse of the stock niarket, putting prices back in 
ten days where they were four months ago. 

Now, I undertake to say — and say it with em- 
phasis — that if the Congress of this winter, or 
during an extra session the coming spring, should 
reduce the tariff or stop the coinage of silver, or 
should we have a general drought during the next 
spring and summer to damage the crops severely, 
then, in either case, prices for railroad stocks, iron, 
and the products of other industries which have 
been stimulated this year will decline to a lower 
level, and the improvements will fade out of 
sight. 

Aside from all the economic theories as to the 
working of a low tariff in the long run, there is 
no denying the fact that the immediate effects of 
a reduction of duties would be depressed business 
in all our industries. 

This government should not allow such a dismal 
calamity as the prostration of our industries in 
this way for the sake of reducing its revenue. 

Congress should abolish the internal revenue taxes, 
which will cut down the surplus receipts to a fair 
limit, and the reduction in this way will not injure 
general business, and will avoid a growing stringency 
in the money markets, which is imminent by the con- 
tinued accumulation and locUiig up in the treasury oj 
such a large share of the currency. 



174 benner's prophecies. 

To stop the coinage of silver in this country, 
would throw our silver production on English 
markets at greatly reduced prices, enabling the 
English merchants to buy their wheat and cotton 
of India at prices which would bankrupt American 
farmers. It would stop the improvement in bus- 
iness, cause lower prices to rule for every thing, 
and produce general distress in all our industries. 

The year 1887 is the time for the periodical re- 
turn of a general drought in this country. We 
have noticed its encroachments this year all along 
our Western border ; long-continued dry weather 
prevailed from Texas to Dakota. 

Should the drought return in 1887, it no doubt 
will extend eastward, covering the great wheat 
and corn-growing sections of our country, and if 
it should continue a sufficient length of time to 
damage the crops it will have the effect of curtail- 
ing grain freights East, and merchandise freights 
West, moving the scales the other way — stocks 
down and wheat up. Eastern merchants and 
manufacturers will become concerned about their 
goods, while on the other hand creating a lively 
speculation in breadstuff's and provisions. 

The bright side of the future is plain. If Con- 
gress does not disturb the tariff and the silver 
laws, and there should be no damage by drought 
to the crops, then we will have a repetition of the 



FORECAST FOR 1887. 175 

excitement in stocks during the fall of 1887, to 
last until the next session of Congress, when, 
again, we can expect to see a collapse in specula- 
tion and a sudden decline in prices. 

And if there should not be an extra session in 
the spring, there will be a better feeling in bus- 
iness quarters during the spring months, to con- 
tinue until the crops are determined, the outcome 
of which will decide as to good or bad fall trade. 

This is a great and growing country ; it is in a 
splendid condition for unbounded development in 
all our industries. Plenty of good money — gold, 
silver, and paper; wonderful railroad facilities; a 
Western world on this continent to populate, and 
with the threat of lower duties abandoned, and a 
thorough high protective tariff enacted and con- 
tinued, with favorable monetary laws, our pros- 
perity and advance in our numerous industries 
will excel any thing recorded in all history. 

SAMUEL BENNER. 
DuNDAs, Ohio, December 25, 1886. 



176 benner's prophecies. 



FORECAST FOR 1888. 

This year, 1888, being Presidential year, coming 
as it does at the end of the cycle for low prices, 
will not be a good year for profitable business ; 
prices for iron and railroad stocks will be lower 
than in 1887. 

Since the assassination of Garfield, in 1881, 
business has been on the down grade ; and during 
these six years of declining prices there has not 
appeared any great or important event to make a 
turning point for the better in general business. 

The outcome of the election in 1884, and the 
change of administration, has had the effect to 
continue low prices for iron, railroad stocks and 
manufactured commodities. 

The drought of 1887, which cut the crops short, 
has changed the direction of prices for grain and 
provisions. 

Now, what is there to happen in this year, 
1888, of sufficient importance to change the tide 
for higher prices and for commercial prosperity? 

The most important future event in sight is the 
election in November. 

The commercial history of this country is noted 
for its speculative eras and depressions. Com- 
merce and finance move in cycles ; and when the 
cycles of low prices have completed themselves 



FOEECAST FOE 1888. 177 

we may rely, with the utmost certainty, that they 
will be followed by cycles of high prices. 

In speculative eras we have large advances in 
the prices of commodities, while the years of de- 
pressions are characterized by extensive declines 
and stagnation in business. 

The cycles are distinguished for a variation in 
the price of pig iron of at least $30 per ton. We 
have not realized this advance since 1881. 

Now, to have an advance from the lowest in 
this depression of $30 per ton in the price of pig 
iron and to have general prosperity during the 
years 1889, 1890, and 1891 to make and complete 
a high-price cycle, in accordance with the iron 
cycle as made in my "Prophecies," there must be 
a good and prominent cause for it. 

It can not be brought about or accomplished 
within this cycle by a reduction of the tariff, as 
now threatened. 

It now may be accepted as an axiom, that the 
immediate effect of a low duty tariff would be 
lower prices ; to be followed afterward in a term 
of years by higher prices, to the benefit of foreign 
manufacturers. 

Also, that the immediate effect of the passage 
of a high protective tariff would be higher prices; 
to be followed afterward in a few years by lower 
prices, to the benefit of the consumers. 



178 ^ benner's prophecies. 

Whenever we have had high prices for iron and 
merchandise under a low tariff, since the low duty 
of 1816, it was after our home manufactures were 
in ruin, and when foreigners had possession of our 
markets. 

Under the present extent and stability of our 
manufacturing industries it would require several 
years, after the passage of a low duty tariff, to 
prostrate the business of this country, and after- 
ward to advance our market to exorbitant figures 
on foreign imports. 

Under the low duty tariff of 1816 our home 
manufactures were but few, and as a consequence 
British manufactures held possession of our mar- 
kets, and high prices ruled for all imported man- 
ufactured commodities, while our agricultural 
products and labor were at low prices. 

Under the low tariff of 1833, when our manu- 
factories were infant industries, it required two 
years to stop our mills and furnaces, and then two 
years afterward to advance our market to the 
highest prices on foreign goods. 

Under the exclusive ad valorem low tariff of 
1846 (which is the most unfair tariff scheme that 
can be devised for the interests of this country 
and most desired by foreigners), it required a 
longer time to depress our domestic industries four 



FORECAST FOE 1888. 179 

years of declining prices and four years of ad- 
vancing markets to reach the highest, which was 
to the benefit of British manufacturers. 

Now, if a low duty tariff bill should be enacted 
by Congress this winter, and to be continued, 
either specific or ad valorem, it would require a 
number of years before our manufactories would 
be in a state of ruin, and then before prices for 
foreign products could be advanced to a high 
figure. 

Therefore, to reduce the tariff duties this win- 
ter would not accomplish this end in time for our 
cycle, and consequently we can not consider the 
enactment of a low tariff as a cause for a turning 
point in this year. In the past fifty years, during 
the low duty Democratic administrations of Van 
Buren, Polk, Pierce, and Buchanan, iron and all 
manufactured commodities declined and remained 
at a low price, with depressed business in our in- 
dustries at the close of each of these administra- 
tions. And when these administrations were suc- 
ceeded by the opposing party, which favored the 
protective policy, prices advanced to a high range 
and trade became prosperous. 

The Cleveland administration at the close of 
this year, like its predecessors, will have fulfilled 
its mission by continuing low prices. 

Reasoning from analogy observable in these 



180 benner's prophecies. 

cycles, it is very evident that the coming three 
years, after 1888, will be unusually prosperous. 

Therefore it is a necessity of the situation, 
(cyclically speaking, and a sigu of the times, that 
the low tariff party must give way to the party 
which protects our industries and assures at once 
general prosperity. 

The Republican party must and will be success- 
Inl in the election this fall to produce this result. 
This event I predict, which will be cause and 
major question of the times to make a turning 
point this year from commercial depression to 
great speculative activity. 

The Republican party can and will solve the 
surplus problem — satisfactory to this country and 
without a sweeping reduction of duties on im- 
ports — and will restore prosperity by repealing 
any unfavorable laws that may be passed by 
Congress under Cleveland. 

This year, 1888, beuig the closing year in this 
cycle of low prices — seven years from 1881 — is 
the golden opportunity to commence the founda- 
tion for a business If there is any benefit to be 
derived from a knowledge of these cycles in trade, 
it will be in taking advantage of them. 

Young men who are about to commence their 
business career should embrace the present oppor- 
tunity. There are but few of these chances in an 



FORECAST FOR 1888. 181 

ordinary life. It requires about ten years to com« 
plete an up and down in general trade. 

When the depressions Avhich follow commercial 
crises reach their lowest limit, as determined by 
these price cycles, they afford the best opportunity 
for investment, and the height of speculative eras 
are the most dangerous periods to make a com- 
mencement in any enterprise. 

This year is the opportunity for investors to 
open a mine, to build a furnace, to erect a mill, to 
build a ship, to equip a railroad, and to make in- 
vestments in agricultural, commercial, and indus- 
trial operations. 

George Peabody laid the foundation for his for- 
tune by buying American securities in one of our 
commercial depressions. 

According to the weather diagram in my 
prophecies, the summer of 18§8 will be dry and 
hot, affecting the crops, and probably causing 
more damage than the heat of 1887. This will 
have a depressive influence on railroad securities, 
making the coming fall — September, October, 
and November — a good time to buy stocks cheap, 
for an investment to run a few years. We have 
passed the low point for grain and provisions, and 
prices for these products will take a higher range 
for several years to come. 

SAMUEL BENNER. 

DuNDAS, Ohio, January 2, 1888. 



FORECAST FOR 1889, 1890, AND 1891. 183 

FORECAST FOR 1889, 1890, AND 1891. 

My forecasts at present are not only for the year 
1889, but also include 1890 and 1891. 

It is a great desideratum to know when good 
times will commence, and it is also very important 
to know how long they will continue, and when 
we may expect the next panic and reaction in 
general business. 

The business men of this country do not desire 
a boom of short duration so much as they do a 
steady advance in prices, and in the developments 
of trade — continuing for a number of years. 

However much they may desire this condition 
for future business, the records of commercial and 
financial history do not warrant us in making this 
kind of prophecy. 

Since 1825 this country has not experienced a 
continuous advance in the price of iron beyond 
four years. 

The resumption of specie payment by the gov- 
ernment in 1879 was the occasion for the boom in 
business following that event. 

Now we have a decision by the people that pro- 
tection will continue to be the policy of the gov- 
ernment, making the occasion for the turning of 
the tide from depression to activity in all business. 

The depression in trade for 1888 was predicted 



184 BENNES'S PROPHECIES. 

thirteen years ago, and the prediction was also 
made at that time that the tide would turn, giv- 
ing us an era of business activity during the years 
1889, 1890, and 1891. 

The persistence of the repetition of these trade 
cycles is becoming a commercial wonder; they 
ride triumphant over all events which have oc- 
curred during the past sixty years to oppose such 
regularity. 

These cycles have been verifying themselves 
through the introduction of railroads, steamboats, 
the electric telegraph, the suspension of specie 
payments in 1837 and 1857, the panic of 1873, 
through the Mexican war, our civil war, through 
all our Presidential terras since the administration 
of Jackson, and up to the present time override 
and defeat the aims of the present administration, 
while using the whole machinery of the govern- 
ment for re-election, with the avowed policy of a 
low tariff, which would depress our industries. 

What else can a reasonable person ask to pre- 
i^ent their repetition? Better times and higher 
prices will prevail for the next three years, and no 
happening or opposition can prevent them. 

The outcome of the Presidential election has 
laid a broad basis for a general recovery of confi- 
dence ; an element that has been wanting for the 
past four years, which we have observed by the 



FORECAST FOR 1889, 1890, AND 1891. 185 

many idle furnaces, mills, and factories, and the 
lowest price for nails, steel rails, and pig-iron for a 
number of years. 

The year 1889 opens with cheerful hopes. Our 
crops during the past year have been abundant; 
the prospects of an increased foreign demand for 
our surplus grain and provisions at advanced 
prices gives the farmers renewed energy. We 
must look forward to a hot and dry summer this 
year, as we are not yet beyond the period for a 
general drought ; however, with fair early crops, 
business and prices will show considerable im- 
provement in the spring months. 

We are at the beginning of a prosperous period, 
and the outlook is for a decided improvement and 
advance in the prices of iron, railroad stocks, and 
in all manufactured commodities. Whenever our 
manufacturers are prosperous every industrial 
class is prosperous. 

I predict that the price of iron will advance, 
and the average price for the year 1889 will be 
higher than the average for 1888; and I also pre- 
dict that there will be a wonderful advance in 
prices for iron stocks, and all products and com- 
modities in 1890; all business will be prosperous, 
and it will be a year of good crops, and the boom 
year in this period of activity. 

In the beginning of the year 1891 speculation 



186 , benner's prophecies. 

will be at its height — a great business inflation — • 
pig-iron fifty dollars per ton in the markets of our 
country. 

I predict that there will be a panic in the year 
1891. The overtrading and general inflation of 
business and expansion of credit and confidence, 
will produce this result. The panic probably will 
be brought about by the effects of heavy rainfalls 
and floods, or by the collapse of some large finan- 
cial business firm. 

This panic will be a commercial and financial 
revulsion, and will be followed by a long down 
sweep of prices. Samuel Benner. 

DuNDAS, O., January 1, 1889. 



FORECAST FOR 1890. 187 

. FORECAST FOR 1890, 

I predict that prices for iron and railroad stocks 
"will advance and be considerably higher in 1890 
than in 1889, and that 1890 will be the most pros- 
perous year for the iron trade, railroads, and for 
general business since 1881. 

Iron is the most useful of all metals — it is the 
monarch of business, the barometer of commerce; 
it is the great Jupiter of trade, and when the iron 
industry is prosperous, so is the general business 
of this country. 

I am well aware that my prediction, made last 
January, of the upward tendency of iron and 
better business for the year 1889, was considered 
by many persons as premature and would be a 
failure. The continued low prices had made them 
discouraged. Yet we have seen the prediction 
verified — iron has steadily advanced since the 
middle of February. 

The cause and major question which made the 
turning point from commercial depression to ac- 
tivity in trade was the outcome of the election in 
1888, which turned the tide in the minds of a 
majority of business men at that time, although 
the turn in business affairs was not apparent until 
some time later. However, it was scarcely a 
month after the inauguration of General Harrison 



188 FORECAST FOR 1890. 

when the decline in iron ceased, a decline that 
had brought about a widespread stagnation in Lhe 
iron world. 

A restoration of confidence in the future has 
resulted in enlarged trade and in an increase of 
the industries of our country, making a lively con- 
tinued demand for iron. A revival in general 
business stimulates the iron trade, and a rising 
iron market is the best evidence of it and that ii, 
will continue. 

The aggregate grain and cotton crops of the 
past year are the largest in the history of this 
country, which is an important factor for pro- 
moting profitable and voluminous trade, and no 
doubt was the foundation for the extensive busi- 
ness done during the closing months of 1889. 
Yet the advance in iron had commenced several 
months before the extent and outcome of the crops 
were known. 

The only adverse contingency that the most 
chronic pessimist can argue against the bright 
future business ou|,look is tight money — yet money 
is plenty every-where for legitimate purposes; the 
banks in Ohio are overflowing with funds, some 
of them refuse to pay interest on long time de- 
posits. 

As we look to the general government for our 
supply of currency, to increase its volume is plain 



FOEECAST FOR 1890. 189 

sailing. Congress should direct the Secretary of 
the Treasury to issue coin certificates in payment 
for silver bullion as fast as business expands. 
Should the Congress of this winter fail to repeal 
the internal revenue laws, then it ought to pass 
an act to pension all the soldiers at once, which 
will relieve the treasury of a part of the surplus, 
and place the money in circulation this year and 
next, while the revival of prosperity and increas- 
ing business will need and demand it in the 
channels of trade. 

I predict that in five years from tliis time nearly 
all the soldiers then living will be pensioned by 
reason of tlie disability laws which have been and 
will be passed by Congress. 

The business outlook for 1890 is buoyant for a 
general revival of trade. We may look in any 
direction and behold — granaries bursting with the 
products of the land, factories employed to their 
fullest capacity, the hum of industry is now heard 
where a year ago all was as silent as the tomb. 

Railroads were nevermore prosperous; they are 
unifying and consolidating their lines with im- 
mense traffic, and reaching out in all directions 
with new roads to accommodate the increasing 
business. There will be a boom in railroad stocks 
this year. 

The mining industry will feel the favorable in- 



190 FORECAST FOR 1890. 

fluence the coming spring; the increased demand 
for coal, ore, and other minerals, wfth the revival 
and activity in general trade, will employ the full 
capacity of the labor of this country; the demand 
for labor will increase, making wages higher. 

The growing winter wheat has a favorable start, 
which is an indication of a large crop of wheat 
the coming summer. 

The crops of foreign countries are short and 
below an average, which will make a demand for 
our surplus grain and provisions. 

The balance of trade is in our favor. 

We observe, as a result of the brilliant outlook, 
that there is a universal scramble for property. 
British syndicates are sending their money to this 
country by the millions to buy our breweries, dis- 
tilleries, nail mills, flour mills, cotton and woolen 
factories, oil, ore, and coal lands, furnaces, eleva- 
tors, and all else they can invest in where there 
is a prospect of a reasonable profit. 

All Europe is excited about the scarcity of iron, 
and where the supply is to come from to meet the 
requirements of railway extension and military 
operations in the old countries. Prices have 
been advancing in England more rapidly than in 
this country. 

We are now in an era of commercial activity 
unequaled in the annals of trade. 



FORECAST FOR 1890. 191 

A production of ten million of tons of pig iron 
will not supply the demand for 1890. No. 1 pig 
iron will be low at $30 per ton. The price will 
advance above that figure this year, 

Tiie growth of the United States is remarkable. 

Sixty-five millions of people. 

Four hundred million acres of improved and 
cultivated land. 

Two hundred thousand miles of railway. 

A billion and a half of good money in circula- 
tion. 

A net-work of electric wires from ocean to ocean, 
and a profusion of all the elements of wealth. 

The progress and improvements in commerce, 
manufacture, and agriculture surpass any thing 
known in the world's history. 

Samuel Bennee. 

. DuNDAS, Ohio, January 1, 1890. 



192 benner's prophecies. 



FORECAST FOR 1891. 

The brilliant outlook at the beginning of 1890 
for higher prices for iron and stocks was blighted 
during the past summer and fall by the persistent 
necessities of London capitalists realizing on our 
securities in consequence of the collapse of specu- 
lation in South America, producing a continued 
depression in our stock market, ending in a finan- 
cial panic. 

Tliere is a wide difference between a yearly panic 
in money and a periodical panic in trade. 

One is the alarm of tight money raised nearly 
every spring and fall in New York City, while 
the other is cyclical, and is the inevitable result 
after a period of wild speculation and inflation in 
business. 

The panic of November, 1890, was a financial 
disturbance — premature — to fulfill the predicted 
panic for 1891, and will soon subside. 

An inflated basis for pig iron, railroad stocks, 
wild speculation in trade, and over expansion of 
credits are essential conditions to precede a panic 
that would result in a reaction of trade. These 
elements were lacking prior to the la«te financial 
flurry. 



FORECAST FOR 1891. 198 

Now, what is the business outlook for the open- 
ing year? 

There is no good reason why a financial dis- 
turbance at home or abroad should produce a re- 
vulsion in trade in this country at this time, and 
when no adverse national legislation is in sight 
for a year at least. 

The McKinley Tariff, the Silver Bill, and the 
enormous Treasury disbursements forbid ! 
. The McKinley tariff is the mainstay to the in- 
dustrial interests of this country for the present to 
create and revive general business. It will give 
confidence in trade for the coming year. 

The greenback — a wonderful money — is as good 
as gold to-day anywhere, in this country. 

No paper money has broken now — as it did in 
the panic of 1837— when suddenly two-thirds of 
it were extinguished by breaking — and when the 
expansion of bank credits and tenfold expan- 
sion of private credits were suddenly converted 
into specie demands. Farmers for years after- 
ward were required to dig the ground to pay 
debts in specie, which were contracted in a wild 
money inflation. 

No reduction of the tariff now, as in the year 
1857, which was immediately followed by a panic 
and general suspension of the banks, and nearly 



194 benner's prophecies. 

all paper money at a discount, which entailed 
heavy losses upon the public. 

No reduction of the tariff now, as in 1870 and 
1872, which aided and created the commercial 
crash of 1873. 

Had iron and stock reached a high-prico bas'.g 
during the past year, and had Congress adopted a 
low tariff instead of the McKinley bill, this severe 
financial crisis would have been a deplorable dis- 
aster resulting in a revolution of trade at once, with 
a sudden shrinkage in prices and general collapse 
in business throughout this country. 

The business situation is in a pn.sperous condi- 
tion, trade is upon a sound basis ; the circulating 
money was never better ; there is good money in 
any required amounts to move the crops, and to 
produce any manufactured commodity that' is 
wanted ; agricultural products of all kinds bring 
good prices ; the foreign market will take all we 
can spare. 

In view of the favorable outlook and the phe- 
nomenal expansion and speculation in our South- 
ern and Western States, with the promise of an 
abundant crop the coming year, and the reorgan- 
ization of financial affairs in Europe, and combi- 
nations in our extended railway system, we must 
look forward to a speculative boom in iron and 



FORECAST FOR 1891. 195 

stocks before we can enter upon the coming pe- 
riodical revulsiou in trade. 

I predict that the stringency in money arid credits 
wilt cease this winter, and. that business and prices 
will, improve and recover under the working of the 
Mc Kinky tariff, when in full operation, stimulating 
trade in many branches of industry all over this country 
especially in the South where all manner of enterprise 
has become a wonder, giving us a short boom in this 
year 1891. 

I predict that the season of 1891 will be an excep- 
tionally good one for the provision trade; corn and pork 
IV ill advance materially to high figures by October 
next. 

I predict tJiat this period of inflation and activity 
in the iron industry will culminate in the fall of this 
year during the usual autumn stringency, and contrac- 
tion in general business will follow with drooping 
prices. 

The political complications changing the com- 
plexion of the next Congress, which will be 
unfriendly to the continuance of the policy of protec- 
tion to home industry, and the tumult of presi- 
dential making in 1892, with third party confusion, 
will cast their shadows before them, creating 
doubt as to the future, unfavorably affecting gen- 
eral business. 

This reaction in trade will not be sudden and 



196 benner's prophecies. 

violent, but gradual, giving us a fairly prosperous 
period during the operation of the present tariff, 
to continue until Congress passes an act reducing 
duties. Then will follow a panic and sudden de- 
pression in all our industries, extending to a num- 
ber of years prior to a satisfactory business situ- 
ation. Samuel Bennek. 
DuNDAS, ()., January 1, 1891, 



FORECAST FOR 1892. 197 



FOKECAST FOR 1892. 

For the past three years, 1889, 1890, and 1891, 
I have predicted a revival of speculation, good 
trade and high prices. 

I now predict that the channels of trade will 
become stagnant — general business will languish 
and low prices will prevail for the next six years. 

The cycle for high prices has passed, the op- 
portunity is gone for a general revival of busi- 
ness, and during the past three years we have not 
experienced great speculation in this country. 

Why is this so ? 

What was the " reason why ?" 

It could not be charged to resumption of specie 
payments. ''Booms" appeared under the specie 
basis before the late resumption. 

It was not for the want of the balance of for- 
eign trade being in our favor ; the balance of 
trade had been in our favor continuously from 
1876 to 1888, sixteen hundred million of dollars. 

It was not for the want of good crops at the 
beginning of this cycle in 1889; the production 
of wheat and corn in that year aggregated more 
bushels than in any year before in the history of 
this country. 



198 benner's prophecies. 

It was Dot for the want of a protective tariff; 
our tariff lias been protective for a number of 
years. 

My answer to this question is this : There was 
not sufficient expansion and prospective inflation 
of the currency to produce and stimulate great 
speculation. 

Prior to the War of the Rebellion a material 
rise in prices followed the rapid increase in the 
number of banks, and in the volume of paper 
money, and in periods of great speculation the 
country was flooded with a depreciated currency 
based on hard money. The notes of banks could 
not be signed fast enough for the public ; banks 
of issue under the old state bank system could 
then inflate the currency to any desired amount 
to stimulate trade. 

Now we have a banking system which is not 
adequate to furnish a sufficient volume of cur- 
rency to meet the wants of all the people and to 
produce and stimulate great speculation, and the 
people know it. 

,The restrictions of the national currency laws — 
confining circulation to bonds deposited — and the 
provision which requires the keeping of a certain 
amount of money as a reserve against liabilities, 
not only prevents inflation of the currency, but 



FORECAST FOR 1892. 199 

also hinders banks from extending accommoda- 
tions to legitimate business interests. 

The output of silver certificates in excess of the 
contraction of national bank notes and displace- 
ment of gold is a slow process, and is not suffi- 
cient for the increasing needs of this growing 
country. 

I can fix no other "honest reason why" there 
was no great speculation in 1889, 1890, and 1891, 
than the lack of sufficient expansion of the cur- 
rency. 

One good reason for a thing is sufficient, with- 
out collaterals. 

Why do I predict poor trade and low prices for 
the next six years? 

One reason is that the cycle denotes it. 

One cause will be the contraction of national 
bank currency. 

There has been during the past nine years a 
contraction of national bank notes to the amount 
of 190 millions of dollars — and what is to be ex- 
pected when the corporate existence of ninety-six 
national banks expire in this year 1892? 

What will be the controlling cause? Answer: 
Discarding silver as a money metal by our gov- 
ernment and other nations. 

This controlling cause has been constantly ope- 
rating to depress values and to restrain the ex- 



200 bennek's prophecies. 

pansive force of our industries — it has discouraged 
speculation early in the late high-price cycle, and 
will have a distressing and disastrous effect in the 
coming low-price 9ycle. 

The coinage act of 1873, which abolished the 
silver dollar, was a monstrous wrong against labor 
and the industrial interests of this country. 

The gold basis as a sole unit of value is a curse 
to the great majority of the human race. Gold 
alone is too scarce a metal to be the standard as 
the only measure and basis of all values ; and as 
the commercial nations of the earth are drifting 
to the single standard, and in consequence of the 
growing scarcity of gold, it will continue to ap- 
preciate, which will be apparent in the decline of 
prices and depression in trade. 

We are now approaching a low-price cycle. 

What is to be expected when the demonetiza- 
tion of silver hangs over the financial heavens as 
a dark and threatening cloud ? 

The whole civilized world is suffering from the 
effects of a silver panic ; prices are leveling down 
the world over, and in spite of our protective 
tariff prices here are adjusting themselves to the 
lower plane of value in foreign countries. 

To realize the full measure of the present fin an" 
cial drift, and what a low cycle means, it will only 
be necessary to give the golden screw a few more 



«#;■ 



FORECAST FOR 1892. 201 

twists by fresh demonetization of silver in some 
other countries, increasing the impoverishment 
and gloom of Europe, stop the purchase of silver 
by our own government, without provision for 
placing more money at once in the channels of 
trade — national bank currency continually de- 
creasing — and then cap the climax by the adop- 
tion of a "revenue tariff only," under the single 
standard, which is and will be a new element in 
tariff history for depression, and the inevitable re- 
sult will be that the industrial and productive in- 
terests of this country will be struck with the 
mildew of stagnation. 

Since the silver legislation and financial crisis 
of 1873, the most remarkable increase in business 
activity and high prices for iron were in the high 
cycles of 1879 and 1889 in a decreasing ratio. 

In 1879, resumption set free many millions of 
greenbacks, which started a wave of prosperity — 
the highest prices for iron were lower than in the 
former high cycle of 1872. 

In 1889 there was no inflation of the currency 
to give rise to extraordinary movements in trade. 
The contraction of national bank notes exceeded 
the amount of silver certificates issued in that 
year. The highest prices for iron were lower than 
the highest in 1879. 



202 benner's prophecies. 

Why is it that the periods of speculation are 
becoming weaker? And why was it that after 
1879 and 1889 the advance in the price of iron 
ceased, and large enterprises of production be- 
came discouraged before the years of the high 
cycle had expired ? 

The cause of the whole trouble is to be found 
in— money. 

Under the present system of national banks and 
the gold unit of value, periods of great specula- 
tion will be out of the question. 

The upward movements in trade will , be of 
short duration, with only ordinary advance in 
prices. 

While on the other hand we can look forward 
to nothing else but long periods of depression, 
with increasing distress and prostration of all 
forms of industry, with lower prices for many 
products and commodities than ever known in the 
country. 

The outlook for the growing winter wheat is 
unfavorable — the fall and winter pastures the 
worst for many years. The people are excited 
about our bountiful crops. Yet the crops of 1891 
will melt away as did the big crop of 1889, with- 
out much stimulation in prices for iron and stocks, 
and should the crop condition in the coming 
spring have no better outlook than at present, 



FORECAST FOR 1892. 203 

then the financial influence will be dominant, 
trade and traffic will decrease, and general busi- 
ness go into depression, to continue for a number 
of years. Samuel "Bennee. 

DuNDAs, O., January 1, 1892. 



FORECAST FOR 1894. 205 



FOBECAST I^OE 1894. 

It is somewhat against the desires of the writer 
to predict calamity in the future business of this 
country ; yet, however, I yield to the urgent de- 
mand from business men for my views. 

We are now in the down cycle in trade and 
prices, as explained in this book. 

In the forecast for 1892 it was remarked that 
general business would languish and low prices 
would prevail for the next six years. 

After such disasters as have occurred in 1893, 
the inquiry is a most anxious one : What is the 
business outlook for 1894? My prediction is, 
that hard times, poor trade, continued lower prices, 
and general stagnation in our industries will pre- 
vail all over this country throughout this year. 

There will be a new and extraordinary business 
situation — a combination of adverse legislative 
enactments never before experienced in this 
country. 

The repeal of the silver purchasing law leaves 
us squarely on the deadly gold basis. 

There is no doubt of the Wilson tariff bill pass- 
ing Congress and becoming a law, with some un- 
important changes. 

Gold basis with low tariff will be something 



206 benner's prophecies. 

new in trade conditions, and its effects will be to 
paralyze the whole country. It will mean the 
lowest depths of depression in all our industries. 

Speculative booms in business are out of the 
question — no use to look for them. The discard- 
ing of the silver dollar as a money unit has killed 
all speculation. The price of silver bullion will 
eventually decline in the world's market, dragging 
down wheat,' wool, cotton, and all agricultural 
products. 

It will be some satisfaction in these troublesome 
times to know that the greenback will save us 
from so great a calamity as the bursting of the 
Jackson paper money in 1837. 

The hard times following that disaster spread a 
pall of bankruptcy over the whole land. Taxes 
could not be paid, and the greater part of the 
debts were settled by bankruptcy. 

The greenback was our mainstay in the long 
downs weep of prices after the panic of 1873, 
after the Baring panic of 1890, and also after the 
late panic in 1893. We can rely on it after the 
coming commercial panic which is certain to follow 
the adoption of a low tariff. 

No political party should ever be voted into 
power that would advocate the retirement of the 
greenback. 

Now at this time we have no fears in regard to 



FORECAST FOR 1894. 207 

the soundness of our paper money ; yet we are in 
a deplorable financial condition. 

The demonetization of silver in 1873 continues 
to hang over the business outlook as a dark and 
threatening cloud. 

This stealthy act was a crime against God and 
man. It was an unpardonable sin, and no atone- 
ment can ever be made for it; it has occasioned 
more loss to the agricultural, mining and indus- 
trial interests of this country than the costs of all 
the wars that have ever been waged on this con- 
tinent; it has occasioned more grief, sorrow, and 
gloom than all other crimes ; it has been the real 
cause of declining prices in lands, grain, wool, 
cotton, iron and all else, to lower figures than 
ever known ; it is the toain reason why that stag- 
nation prevails in our industries to-day ; it is the 
monster that has thrown an army of laborers out 
of employment— filled our cities with starving 
men— because there is no work for them to do. 

It is evident that the money problem is pre- 
dominant for depression in our business afl'airs; 
and it is a sad and doleful commentary upon the 

times that in this free and enlightened country 

rich in all the bounties of nature, inexhaustible 
mines of coal, iron, gold and silver, boundless ag- 
ricultural resources— that such disasters in busi- 



208 benner's prophecies. 

ness should have occurred as described, and all 
this under a high protective tariff. 

If, with all that has happened in the past, when 
in possession of so favorable agricultural, manu- 
facturing, and mining advantages, with protec- 
tion, what is to be expected as a result of the 
adoption of a free trade and ad valorem low duty 
tariff at this time, with silver demonetized ? 

The low duty tariffs have been shameful failures 
in this country. Whenever we have had a low 
tariff, the general government became involved in 
debt, manufacturers were crippled, the people 
were impoverished, and labor was thrown out of 
work. 

A low duty tariff will cause declining prices for 
labor and its productions, resulting in a lessened 
ability to pay debts. The gold we have will soon 
fly off to Europe to pay for goods we should man- 
ufacture ourselves. 

When we had the low tariff of 1833, so empty 
was the treasury that the president could not 
draw bis salary. The tariff was reduced in 1857. 
In the following year there was a deficiency in the 
revenue, and the government was compelled to 
borrow twenty millions of dollars. 

The low tariff era from 1857 to 1861 was a 
dismal period in tariff history. The industries of 
this country were prostrated ; the people were poor 



FOEECAST FOE 1894. 209 

and in debt. These four years of low tariff bank- 
rupted more iron furnaces and factories, caused 
more failures in business, and reduced the laboring 
man to greater hardships and privations than ever 
before known. 

With low tariff, on a gold basis, we can look 
forward to nothing else but an adjustment of 
prices to the low plane of foreign countries. The 
labor of this country will be forced down to the 
impoverished condition of labor in Europe. 

What else can be expected but continued em- 
barrassed business, bankrupted manufacturers, 
unemployed labor, and ruined farmers. 

We sound the note of warning. Hard times 
are coming, the sting of which will come to every 
man's home. Samuel Bennee. 

DuNDAS, 0., January 1, 1894. ^ 



FORECAST FOR 1895. 211 



FORECAST FOR 1895. 



What are the ''Signs of the Times?" 

The answer to this question is contained in one 
word 

Prices. 

Wheat, 54 cents a bushel at Chicago. 

Cotton, 5 J cents a pooind at Cincinnati. 

Pig iron, 10 dollars a ton at Pittsburgh. 

Wheat, cotton, and iron are the leading factors 
in general business. Collectively, they are the 
barometer of trade. Low prices for these products 
indicate depressidh and stagnation in business. 

Present prices for wheat and cotton means im- 
poverishment for the farmers and cotton planters. 
Ten dollar pig iron is bankruptcy for the furnace 
man. 

What is the Business Outlook for 1895? 

There is no promise or sign of better times for 
the coming year. 

We may look in vain for any permanent im- 
provement in general business. 

The increase last year of one hundred millions 
of dollars in the bonded debt of this government 



212 benner's prophecies. 

does Dot signify that this is or will be a, prosperous 
country, aud that the people will be conteuted, 
keeping out of debt and making money. 

Our immense war debt has been and is now a 
national misfortune. It was one of the instru- 
mentalities which instigated the money power of 
the world to establish the single gold standard in 
this country. 

Ever since 1873, when this crime was committed, 
values in lands, products, and commodities have 
been shrinking in consequence of this act, and no 
one can fathom or predict the depths to which 
prices will fall. -' 

Many newspapers joined in the chorus after the 
adoption of a lower tariff last August, that things 
were now settled. The tide had turned; l>usiness 
was improving. Yet, notwithstanding all news- 
paper wisdom, there was a silent and constantly 
operating cause for depression that overrides all 
things. Prices did not advance, but continued on 
the downward grade. Pig iron, lately, 9 J dollars 
a ton at Pittsburgh, is the wonder of the age. 

The outcome of the late election is not a factor 
in the business situation. 

It did not give us more gold. 

It did not give us more corn. 

It did not give us a protective tariff. 

It did not stop the outflow of gold. 



FORECAST FOR 1895. 213 

It did Dot increase the revenue. 

It did not reraonetize silver. 

It did not relieve us from the blighting, wither- 
ing curse of the single gold standard. Although 
a wonderful success for the Republican party, it 
was a dismal failure in improving business and in 
establishing higher prices! 

Currency reform is now the sensation in Con- 
gress. This reform is not at this time impera- 
tively needed ; our currency is safe and sound ; 
no- noteholder has ever lost a penny by a broken 
national bank ; every dollar of United States cur- 
rency is as good as gold. 

In my forecast for 1892, attention was directed 
to the restrictions of the national banking system 
by our currency laws, and that there was a lack 
of sufficient expansion of the currency to produce 
great speculation in 1889, 1890 and 1891. How- 
ever, any plan of reform to make the currency 
more elastic will be only to juggle with the cur- 
rency, and will not now, in this crisis of the 
government, stop the outflow of gold from the 
treasury. 

What is absolutely required is abundant revenue 
to enable the government to pay its daily ex- 
penses, and to reform silver so that the vast hoard 



214 Brenner's prophecies. 

in the treasury can be utilized in paying gold 
gamblers who present currency for redemption. 

These results can only be obtained by the free 
coinage of silver first, and a thoroughly protective 
tariff to follow, which is the best for revenue and 
best for the people. 

If the proposed currency reform is for the pur- 
pose of creating a boom in business for 1895 and 
1896 it will be a flat failure. 

Before the war of rebellion, when we had the 
specie basis banking system, whenever the tariff 
was reduced prices declined and hard times fol- 
lowed ; to get their notes in circulation the banks 
had to resort to every ingenuity and cunning de- 
vice so as to prevent their sudden return for 
redemption in hard money. They then could not 
inflate the currency and start a boom in business 
by their money alone. 

It was only after a protective policy had been 
adopted and business was improving, that specie- 
paying banks flourished ; then they could issue 
any quantity of their currency, which stimulated 
business and made high prices. 

Now we have a low tariff, distressed business, 
and declining prices. Any system of state banks 
that would issue currency based on gold or any 
thing ehe could not get large quantities of their 



FORECAST FOR 1895. 215 

notes out in the channels of trade, and therefore 
the attempt would be a failure to boom business. 

A query : If more money is required at this 
time to create better business, why is there now 
a surplus over legal requirements of thirty mill- 
ion dollars of idle money in the banks ? 

There is an anxious inquiry as to the proper 
time to invest money. 

It is one of the facts of trade, that when the 
depressions which follow commercial panics reach 
their lowest limit they afford the best opportunity 
for safe and profitable investment. 

Is there any evidence anywhere that we are at 
the lowest in this depression ? 

Is there any property which is not depreciating 
in value, except gold ? 

I answer none. 

Are prices so low they can not go lower ? Does 
the lower tariff, Eepublican success in the elec- 
tion, and failure in the corn crop indicate a turn 
in the tide of depression for the year 1895 ? 

I answer no. 

There is not in view a single prospective hap- 
pening that would advance prices, except very 
short crops of grain and cotton in 1895. How- 
ever, in that event, railroads and general trade 
would be adversely affected. 

There can not be prosperity in the future with- 



216 -benner's prophecies. 

out advancing prices in general all along the lines 
of production and manufacture. 

An average crop of grain in this country this 
year, with fair crops abroad, prices at Chicago for 
wheat after next harvest will go down to 40 cents 
a bushel ; prices for corn next fall will decline to 
25 cents a bushel ; fat hogs three dollars a hun- 
dred pounds gross next winter's packing season. 
Prices for wool, cotton, iron, cattle, and horses will 
be on the down grade during the present year. 
Common sheep after the wool is taken off next 
spring will sell for what the pelt will then bring 
in the markets, 25 cents. 

To the anxious inquirer : The year 1895 will 
not be the proper time to make investments in 
property, or to engage extensively in business en- 
terprise. 

We have not yet seen or felt the depths of the 
depressive effects of the gold basis with low tariff 
in connection with our growing national debt. 

Samuel Benner. 

DuNDAS, O., January 1, 1895. 



FORECAST FOR 1897. 217 



FORECAST FOR 1897. 

[Copyrighted.] 



I predict a revival in business and higher prices 
next spring and summer ; also predict that 1898 
will be a prosperous year, and that moderately 
good times will prevail until July, 1899. 

By the 4th of March next, the dark clouds of 
the cycle of hard times will have rolled by. The 
sunshine of prosperity will then cover the land. 
The outcome of the election has changed the cur- 
rent of business thought. After the 4th of March 
next we enter a new cycle for better times. 

The writer heretofore has been somewhat san- 
guine on the approach of cycles for good times, 
and has predicted higher prices for iron and great 
activity in general trade. 

Now, judging the future by the past, and to 
reason from what we know, the future does not 
promise great prosperity. 

The late election decided that the existing gold 
standard must be preserved until international 
free silver is secured. 

International free silver is a delusion. To coin 
silver free at the commercial ratio, or any ratio 
other than 16 to 1, is out of the question. The 



218 benner's prophecies. 

people of this country will not consent to change 
our silver dollars until the bonds are paid. United 
States bonds are payable in silver dollars of the 
existing weight and fineness. 

The delay occasioned by an international money 
conference to agree to coin silver free at the ratio 
of 16 to 1 would consume many months of valu- 
able time, and pending a decision by Congress the 
gold press would sound the note of alarm — fifty- 
cent dollars, repudiation, degradation, and desola- 
tion. 

No cycle for good times could withstand the 
agony of 1896. 

The single gold standard may possibly be main- 
tained through the next four years, which will 
constantly operate to press down prices to the 
level of foreign countries. 

The gold basis has been a hindrance to continu- 
ous improvement. Its effects are to override high 
and low tariffs, currencies, and all else, for de- 
pression. It has been the only cause for depress- 
ing and shortening all of our business revivals 
since 1872, in which year we had $50 pig iron. 

The people of this country have not had an op- 
portunity in these business revivals to enjoy more 
than a glimpse of prosperity. 

The single gold standard will fail to restore con- 



FORECAST FOR 1897. 219 

fidence in our financial system or in our securities 
at home or abroad so long as we are compelled to 
issue bonds to get gold — to keep vast sums of 
paper currency and silver dollars on a parity with 
gold. 

The people of this country made a mistake in 
voting down free silver. The Democratic Party 
made a mistake in coupling free silver with re- 
pugnant isms. Nine-tenths of the voters in the 
United States are opposed to the gold standard. 
Many men were buncoed and scared out of their 
votes for free silver. 

Bimetalism is the only salvation for our de- 
pressed debtor country. 

The writer in his book of Prophecies, when 
first published in 1876, predicted that resumption 
of specie payments in 1879 would be a success, 
that it would give confidence in business and 
higher prices. 

In the year 1878, the business of this country 
was in the throes of depression. There were 
calamity howlers then. We were told that re- 
sumption of specie payments would be contrac- 
tion, that the gold in the treasury would be 
drawn out in a day, and that there would be a 
smashing panic in all business. 

The result was that the first day of January, 



220 benner's prophesies. 

1879, was financially as pleasant as May — no 
panic for gold — confidence was restored at once. 
Gold, silver and greenbacks came out into circula- 
tion, and in less than twenty days pork advanced 
two dollars on the barrel. 

Query : If the resumption of specie payments 
in gold alone did not create a panic. 

Why should the restoration of silver to the 
money basis cause a panic ? 

Especially when it would make resumption 
what it means — gold and silver. 

We have been told during the late political ex- 
citemeut that free coinage of silver would be con- 
traction — drive out gold, create a panic, and in- 
flict upon trade and commerce a deadly blow. The 
writer was ready to predict when free coinage of 
silver was assured that the price of silver bullion 
would advance, and when made a law, silver 
would command in the markets $1.29 an ounce. 
Silver then could be coined at the ratio of 16 to 1, 
making the silver in the silver dollar worth one 
himdred cents, and that the result would be a busi- 
ness boom around the world throughout this cen- 
tury, verifying the prophecy made many years 
ago that the 19th century would close in the 
height of a speculative era. 

The managers of the Republican party mani- 
fested ability in conducting the late political cam- 



FORECAST FOR 1897. 221 

paign. It remains to be known whether they can 
manage the coming trade cycle for continuous 
prosperity, upon which depends the success or de- 
feat of the Kepublican party in 1900. 

The Republican party promise a protective tar- 
iff as a remedy for hard times. 

A high tariff may increase the revenues of the 
government, yet we have no assurance that it 
would give high prices and continued prosperity 
in general trade. 

Congress may revise and re-revise the tariff, and 
it will remain unsatisfactory. Protection will not 
protect. The trouble is deeper and wider than 
tariffs and currencies. 

The President-elect remembers that the high 
tariff which was made to take effect October, 6, 1890, 
was the idol of his mind; that it had cost him 
tlie best thought in his life, and he had a patriotic 
hope that it would bring on an era of unbounded 
prosperity in this country. 

What was the result ? We will let the barom- 
eter of trade testify. 

The records of the Iron and Steel Association, 
of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, show that in the 
last cycle for good times, from 1888 to 1891, the 
highest monthly average price for No. 1 pig iron 
was $19.90 a ton in the month of January, 1890. 
From that date the price of iron steadily declined 



222 benner's prophecies. 

through 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, and 1894, when 
the McKinley tariff was repealed, with the lowest 
yearly average price for pig iron ever known, 
112.66 a ton. 

In a few months after the McKinley tariff be- 
came a law, there followed, by reason of reduction 
in wages, the most extensive labor strikes in the 
coal and iron trades in the history of this country, 
and this tariff was in operation only two years and 
one month when the Republicon party was disas- 
trously defeated in the presidential election of 
1892 by a tariff reform party. 

In view of the above, we may look in vain for 
continuous prosperity as a result of a protective 
tariff alone. 

It is unfortunate that the expenses of the gov- 
ernment exceed its income, requiring a revision 
of the tariff at the beginning instead of near the 
end of the coming cycle for good trade. The im- 
provement in business and higher prices to follow 
the adoption of a protective tariff will only con- 
tinue a few months after a new bill would become 
a law. 

The adoption of a new tariff in 1897 or in 1898 
would stimulate general trade only until the sum- 
mer of 1899, after which a reaction will set in, 
with declining prices, contraction in business, re- 
duction in the wages of labor, closing of manu- 



FORECAST FOR 1897. 223 

factories, and another period of poor trade in the 
last half of 1899 and bad times all through 1900. 

In all of our business revivals prior to the de- 
monetization of silver — advancing prices and good 
times of long duration — were produced by pro- 
tective tariffs and the expansion of the currency. 
Since demonetization of silver, these agencies for 
business activity have been growing weaker and 
weaker, which can be observed by the failure of 
the McKinley tariff" to maintain prices, when aided 
by an issue of one hundred and fifty-six million 
dollars in treasury notes. 

Should any reader of this forecast have roseate 
views of the future — consoling himself that we 
are in the flow for a great boom in general trade, 
and contemplating going into debt for money to 
expand his business — let him consider the drift 
of the times and prices in past business revivals 
and depressions as here given recorded by the 
Iron and Steel Association and Dunft's Commer- 
cial Agency. 

Yearly average price per ton for No. 1 pig iron 
in 1872, $48J; in 1880, $28J; in 1890, $18J. 
These figures show that we are coming down 
rapidly from the top level. 

The following will show that we are sinking 
lower at the bottom : The Iron and Steel Asso- 
ciation report that the average price for pig iron 



224 benner's prophecies. 

in February and April, 1895, was $12 a ton, the 
lowest average monthly price for No. 1 pig iron 
on record. 

R. G. Dan^ & Co., who are faithful chroniclers 
of trade events, have in their commercial report 
of May 1, 1896, stated that the average price for 
all commodities was then the lowest ever known. 

Gan it be possible that the downward drift at 
the top and bottom will continue ? . It is probable. 

Bimetalism is the only remedy. 

There is no prospective legislation for an ex- 
pansion of the currency by an increase of new r 
money for circulation. 

Gold evolution forbids. 

Any financial legislation to contract the cur- 
rency which the gold basis demands, especially to 
retire the greenbacks, would destroy confidence 
in trade, stop the improvement in business, and 
inflict a deadly blow on all of our industries. 

Our money muss has become the most wondrous 
financial jumble of modern times. It is proper 
for every person to govern their temper in all 
things. Yet if I had the authority, using the 
language of General Jackson, by the eternal I 
would send every congressman to the penitentiary 
who votes for the retirement of the greenbacks. 

SAMUEL BENNER. 

DuNDAs, O., January 1, 1897. 



